How Patriots’ odds to land No. 1 overall pick in 2025 NFL Draft can improve in Week 15
The Patriots hold the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft entering Week 15.
As the Patriots return from their bye week, it’s clear they want to end the season on a high note and build momentum entering the 2025 season. But if their pre-bye week struggles continue, they could end up being rewarded instead.
Entering Week 15, the Patriots hold the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 3-10 Patriots trail just the 2-11 Raiders and 2-11 Giants for the worst record in the league.
As New England prepares to take on Arizona, analytical models suspect that it will continue to climb up the draft order like it did last week. The Patriots are projected to hold the No. 2 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, per ESPN’s FPI, which gives them a 23.5 percent chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick.
The Giants are the only team above the Patriots. ESPN’s FPI gives New York a 41 percent chance to secure the No. 1 overall pick
While the Giants have the edge in the standings and the analytical model, the Patriots can surpass them and the Raiders for pole position in the battle for the No. 1 pick. If the Patriots lose to the Cardinals, the Giants beat the Ravens, and the Raiders beat the Falcons, New England would hold the No. 1 pick entering Week 16.
Even though the Patriots, Giants, and Raiders would all have the same record in that scenario, New England has an advantage in the tiebreaker. Its strength of schedule (.462) is roughly .080 points worse than New York’s (.543) and Las Vegas’ (.541).
So, if the Patriots lose and one of the Giants or Raiders loses in Week 15, New England would hold the No. 2 pick. If all three lose (which is the expected result based on the points spread in each game), the Patriots would remain in the third draft slot as their strength of schedule is markedly worse than the other five teams who are 3-10 (Panthers, Jaguars, Titans, Jets, Browns).
Looking at the teams behind the Patriots, New England can strengthen its chances to hold a top-five pick in multiple ways. If the Patriots lose, the Panthers beat the Cowboys, the Titans beat the Bengals, and the Browns beat the Chiefs, New England would essentially have a two-game lead over four of the other five 3-10 teams in the draft order with three games left. The Jets and Jaguars meet up in Jacksonville this week, essentially guaranteeing one of those teams will win.
Entering Week 15, the Jaguars (.484) and Panthers (.489) are the only teams that have a remote chance to catch up with the Patriots in the strength of schedule tiebreaker. The Patriots’ edge in that tiebreaker, which helped them land the No. 3 pick in the 2024 draft, can improve if the Lions, Texans, Broncos, Buccaneers, Packers, and Vikings win in Week 15, per Tankathon.
Of course, the Patriots could pull off an upset over the Cardinals on Sunday. If that were to happen and the Giants and Raiders lost in Week 15, the Patriots’ chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick would likely fall to zero.
But New England would still sit in a good spot to earn a top-five pick in that scenario. Even if New England wins and four of the other five 3-10 teams lose in Week 15, it can’t fall further than pick No. 7 in the draft order. The Patriots also have the toughest schedule remaining (.654 winning percentage of remaining opponents) among all the current 3-10 teams.
So, it makes sense that the Patriots have an 86 percent chance to hold a top-five pick and have a near certainty (99.7 percent) to hold a top-10 pick, per ESPN’s FPI.
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