Patriots projected to get No. 1 pick by ESPN. Here’s how their odds can improve in Week 14
The Patriots currently hold the league's fourth-worst record.
The Patriots are on their bye in Week 14, but there might be some things for fans to root for this weekend.
New England is projected to finish with the worst record in the NFL ahead of Week 14’s Sunday games by ESPN’s FPI model. The model gives the Patriots a 27.5 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick and an 89.8 percent chance of securing a top-five pick.
With the Patriots sitting at 3-10, it’s nearly certain they’ll end up getting a top-10 pick. They have a 99.8 percent chance of securing a top-10 selection, according to ESPN’s FPI.
In terms of betting odds, the Patriots hold the fourth-best odds to land the No. 1 pick at DraftKings Sportsbook. At +800, the Patriots trail the Giants (+140), Raiders (+350), and Jaguars (+400).
The betting odds are more reflective of how the standings look entering Sunday. New England holds the fourth-worst record in the league, trailing those three aforementioned teams for the worst spot. New York, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville are each 2-10, so New England is only half-game better than each in the normal standings
As the Giants, Raiders, and Jaguars have each already had their bye week, the Patriots can potentially move into pole position for the No. 1 pick Sunday. New England has the worst strength of schedule (.461) between those four teams, which serves as the tiebreaker to determine the draft order.
So, if the Giants beat the Saints, the Jaguars beat Titans, and Raiders beat the Titans, the Patriots would be on track to get the No. 1 pick. If two of those three teams win, the Patriots would be on track to get the No. 2 pick. If just one of those teams wins, the Patriots would be on track to get the No. 3 pick.
The Patriots can’t be passed in the draft order in Week 14. In addition to holding the tiebreaker edge between the teams with the four worst records, New England also has the tiebreaker edge among the teams with the 11 worst records.
New England could get some separation this weekend in order to ensure it winds up with a top-five pick, though. If the Panthers beat the Eagles, the Jets beat the Dolphins, the Titans beat the Jaguars, and the Browns beat the Steelers, the Patriots would move a full game ahead of each in the draft order standings with the tiebreaker in hand.
The Patriots could also move two full games of the Saints, Bengals, and Bears if they win their respective games this weekend. Ahead of Sunday’s games, the teams with the 11 worst records in the league are only within two games of each other in the standings, so there is a bit of a cluster.
There are also scenarios this weekend that could benefit the Patriots’ strength of schedule, which help bolster their edge in the tiebreaker even more. Their strength of schedule edge could become larger if the Rams beat the Bills, the Chiefs beat the Chargers, and the Cowboys beat the Bengals, per Tankathon.
Beyond Week 14, the Patriots’ path to getting the No. 1 pick looks easier. They have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL in terms of opponent winning percentage. They face the 6-6 Cardinals, the 8-4 Chargers, and the 10-2 Bills twice in the final four weeks of the season.
The Patriots’ top rivals for the top pick, meanwhile, have relatively easier schedules. The Giants have the 12th-toughest remaining schedule (.548 remaining opponents’ winning percentage). The Raiders have the ninth-easiest remaining schedule (.433 remaining opponents’ winning percentage). The Jaguars have the easiest remaining schedule in the league (.279 remaining opponents’ winning percentage). Jacksonville will be without Trevor Lawrence for at least the next four games, though.
Of course, the Patriots aren’t looking to lose games down the stretch. Even though they’re eliminated from the playoff hunt, Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo has emphasized that there are still things to play for as he’s looking to see some of the young players develop.
New England also sits in a better spot than last year at the game’s most important position. If just one of the Patriots’ losses turned into wins last season, they likely wouldn’t have Drake Maye, who’s impressed as a rookie and has seeming quelled any concerns the team might have at quarterback in the near future.
Still, there could be a benefit to the Patriots having one of the top picks in this year’s draft to help build around Maye, even if there isn’t great enthusiasm surrounding the prospects.
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