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Why Brian Hoyer believes Jerod Mayo made the right call to kick in Colts loss
"You probably have a better chance of kicking that field goal than converting a Hail Mary."
In a year full of scrutiny for Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo, Sunday’s loss to the Indianapolis Colts added another controversial data point: his decision to try an NFL-record 68-yard field goal rather than a Hail Mary with the Pats down by a point with one second left in the game.
Joey Slye’s attempt came up a few yards short, the Colts won 25-24, and New England fell to 3-10 on the season for a second year in a row.
The miss prompted detractors to criticize Mayo for attempting a kick no one had made before when Drake Maye could’ve easily reached the end zone from the 50-yard line for a desperation heave.
But former Patriots QB Brian Hoyer actually praised Mayo’s handling of the end-of-game situation, saying ex-Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels likely would’ve advocated for the same thing.
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“I actually thought they handled that situation great,” Hoyer said on the latest episode of “The Quick Snap” podcast. “With Josh, we had the [situational play] slider, like, ‘We want to throw a Hail Mary, but if everybody backs off and we can get a 10-yard gain and put ourselves in a long fuel situation, percentage-wise, you probably have a better chance of kicking that field goal than converting a Hail Mary.’ I was watching and I said, ‘Everybody’s back, you have a chance here.’ And Hunter [Henry] executed it perfectly. Drake got him the ball. They called the timeout.
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“I think it was the right call. I’ve converted one Hail Mary in the NFL. I’ve attempted a lot of them … So it can happen, but I’d put my money on Joey Slye getting an extra few yards on a kick than trying to go down there with everybody waiting. I mean, that’s why they call it a Hail Mary.”
Mayo later said he didn’t know the exact percentages of kicking a 68-yard field goal versus a Hail Mary. (No one’s ever hit a 68-yard goal before, of course, but that doesn’t mean the odds of making one are zero.)
However, according to ESPN, the probability of connecting on a Hail Mary, as the Washington Commanders did to defeat the Chicago Bears earlier this season, is about one in 12 (approximately eight percent) over the last decade.
Meanwhile, Joey Slye has hit two of his six career attempts (about 33.3%) from beyond 60 yards, with both of his makes (including his career-long of 63 yards) coming in the last two seasons. While Slye has never hit from 68, the odds of him perhaps finding a few extra yards are likely better than hoping the other team will screw up their Hail Mary defense like the hapless Bears did.
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That didn’t happen in practice, but David Andrews didn’t second-guess the decision after the fact either.
“As a head coach, if we kick the field goal [and it’s good], it’s like, ‘Oh, what a great decision,'” Andrews said “… Or if you throw the Hail Mary, and it doesn’t work, it’s like, man, maybe you should have tried a long field goal. So it’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t, and that’s fine. That’s part of it.”
Mayo’s coaching decisions have earned plenty of raised eyebrows this season, such as the team’s lack of aggressiveness after Christian Gonzalez’s interception of Anthony Richardson in the fourth quarter which led to a punt rather than points.
But as far as this game’s final sequence goes, Mayo likely chose the more likely of two poor options to try and win the game even though it didn’t work.
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