A lot has happened to the Patriots since last year’s loss to the Colts, and not much of it good
Here we are, and the 3-9 Patriots collide with the Colts — 5-7 and trying to remain in the postseason race — again, this time at Gillette Stadium.
Welcome to Season 13, Episode 13 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious yet lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup . . .
When the Patriots lost to the Colts, 10-6, in Germany during Week 10 last season, it was both the beginning of the end, and the end of any fleeting hope that the status quo might be tenable.
Reports surfaced in the days and weeks following that loss, which dropped the Patriots to 2-8 (en route to 4-13), that ownership had decided Bill Belichick — right, the TV guy — would not be back in 2024.
A mallard of an interception, in which the fluttering football appeared to be filled with helium, clinched that quarterback Mac Jones’s future was elsewhere, and probably involved a clipboard.
Belichick was fired in March, after 24 seasons, nine Super Bowl visits (six wins), but a substandard four-year stretch post-Tom Brady. Jones, a first-round pick in 2020, was traded to the Jaguars in March. It was a full reset.
So here we are, more than a year later, and the 3-9 Patriots collide with the Colts — 5-7 and trying to remain in the postseason race — again, this time at Gillette Stadium.
And how has that reset gone? In the most important way, very well — in seven starts, No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye has brought a spark of hope, looking every bit the part of franchise quarterback of the future despite some predictable rookie mistakes.
And in pretty much every other way . . . it’s gone dismally. Rookie coach Jerod Mayo has had a steeper learning curve than his kid QB, and he continues to make in-game decisions that set a weird tone of passivity. The roster is dotted with waiver-wire refugees and not-ready-for-prime-time young players, and Maye can only elevate them so much.
Sunday’s matchup with the Colts, of course, won’t be as pivotal as last season’s matchup, a defeat that affected the franchise’s direction.
But it matters nonetheless. Can Maye cut down on his turnovers? Can Mayo command situations in real time? Can some evidence emerge that more major changes won’t be needed in the near future? Can the Patriots win a fourth game and at least get even with last season in that regard?
Kick it off, Slye, and let’s get this thing started . . .
Three players worth watching other than the quarterbacks
Christian Gonzalez: The Patriots’ second-year cornerback — and, along with Maye, one of exactly two players on the roster who are no-doubt cornerstones for future success — scored the first touchdown of his 16-game career last Sunday.
Gonzalez scooped up a botched Skylar Thompson handoff and ran 63 yards to the end zone in the fourth quarter, making the Patriots’ loss to the Dolphins slightly less lopsided.
Presuming he is deployed correctly and put into a position where he actually gets to utilize his lockdown cover skills, Gonzalez — who has one of the Patriots’ meager four interceptions this season — could have an opportunity to create another turnover or two on Sunday.
Colts second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson has obvious talent, but he is almost unfathomably erratic for a player chosen with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Richardson has completed just 90 of 191 passes — an abysmal 47.1 completion percentage — for 1,402 yards, with five touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Richardson was benched in favor of 39-year-old Joe Flacco (admit it, you thought he was older) after the Colts’ 23-20 loss to the Texans in Week 8 in which he completed just 10 of 32 passes and pulled himself out of the game for a play because of fatigue.
He returned and played much better (20 of 30, 272 yards) two weeks ago in the win over the Jets, but regressed in a 24-6 loss to the mighty Lions last Sunday, going just 11 for 28.
Richardson does have a knack for throwing deep strikes to a receiving corps that includes Michael Pittman (41 catches, 508 yards, 2 TDs), Josh Downs (53-594-4, but dealing with an injured shoulder), and deep threat Alec Pierce, who is putting up some young Stanley Morgan-caliber stats (27-629-4, a league-best 23.3-yard average).
The Colts have big-play possibilities in their passing game . . . for both teams. This is not the week for the Patriots coaches to treat Gonzalez like an afterthought in the game plan.
Jonathan Taylor: Pretty much the only positive for the Patriots in the loss to the Dolphins was their containment of De’Von Achane and the Miami running game . . . though perhaps that had something to do with the Dolphins deemphasizing the run after realizing they could torch the Patriots through the air.
Nevertheless, the Patriots held the Dolphins to 65 rushing yards on 24 attempts, with Achane finishing with 32 yards on 10 carries. (He did have two touchdowns as part of the aerial torching.)
That counts as progress considering that the Patriots — who rank 18th in the NFL in rush defense, allowing 123 yards per game — had allowed an average of 167 over their previous five games.
The Colts might be a better litmus test regarding whether the Patriots have actually made progress against the run. While they rank in the middle of the pack in rushing (17th, 116.7 yards per game), Taylor is one of the NFL’s most dangerous ball carriers.
Despite missing three games in October with an ankle injury, Taylor has rushed for 708 yards (15th in the NFL) and five touchdowns while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. He’s been stymied the past two weeks by the Jets and Lions, gaining a total of 92 yards on 35 carries. But he had his best game of the season in the Week 10 loss to the Bills, gaining 114 yards on 21 attempts, including a 58-yard burst.
It must be noted that Taylor is not flying solo in the Colts’ backfield. Coach Shane Steichen and offensive coordinator/rejected “Dukes of Hazzard” character Jim Bob Cooter have wisely drawn up more designed runs for Richardson (335 rushing yards, 3 TDs overall) since he returned as the starter.
Zaire Franklin: Speaking of running games, is this finally going to be the week that the Patriots’ ground attack . . . well, actually attacks?
They have had flashes of success — including 144 rushing yards in the victory over the Bears in Week 10 — but consistency from game to game for the league’s 21st-ranked rushing offense (112.8 yards per game) has been much more elusive than Patriots running backs.
And the lows have been low. The Patriots have been held to 86 or fewer yards on the ground four times this season, including 86 in the loss to the Dolphins.
The Colts’ run defense has been subpar, allowing 142.6 yards per game, 27th in the league, so perhaps this is Rhamondre Stevenson’s chance to get some forward momentum.
One thing is certain: He will have multiple encounters with Franklin, who was drafted by the Colts two rounds after the Patriots took Ja’Whaun Bentley in 2018, and fits a similar profile despite being two inches shorter and 15 pounds lighter at 6 feet, 235 pounds.
Franklin is in his third season of being an Official Tackling Machine. Two seasons ago, he made 167 tackles. Last year, he upped his total to 179. This season, he has 123 in 12 games, which leads the NFL.
The flashback
Because they’re wearing their sensational Pat Patriot throwback gear, and because they’re, uh, not playing so well, the mind of a decades-long Patriots observer turns not to a moment from the Brady-Manning heyday when he thinks of the history with the Colts.
No, it turns to the Stupor Bowl.
That was the designation given to the 1981 season finale between the 2-13 Patriots and 1-14 Colts, who met with something real at stake: the first pick in the 1982 draft.
The Colts lost by winning the game, 23-21, with wide receiver Raymond Butler catching two long touchdown passes from Bert Jones. Both Colts wins that season came against the Patriots.
The standout for the Patriots in defeat was veteran backup wide receiver Don Westbrook, who caught two of his three career touchdown passes in what would be his final NFL game. Good on you, Don Westbrook.
Having secured the No. 1 overall pick with the loss, the Patriots promptly blew it on Texas defensive lineman Ken Sims, who compiled 17 sacks in eight seasons in New England. But they did snag a future Hall of Fame defensive star that year, snagging Iowa’s Andre Tippett in the second round.
Grievance of the week
We knew coming into the season that the Patriots were, let’s say, extremely limited of talent. Some might even say “devoid,” save for a keeper or two.
It’s not fun to acknowledge or live with that Sunday after Sunday, but most fans were realistic about this team’s possibilities as the roster began an almost entire remodeling.
What’s most frustrating is not that the Patriots are the lesser-talented team in the majority of matchups.
It’s that they’re almost always the most undisciplined.
I don’t know the analytics on this, but it makes all the sense that better, more talented teams make fewer mistakes. In that sense, it’s not a surprise that the Patriots get in their own way a lot.
It’s the kind of mistakes that they make that are so frustrating — and it doesn’t seem to be getting better. Against the Dolphins, they had a staggering six pre-snap penalties before halftime. Left tackle Vederian Lowe was called for three false starts, and right tackle Demontrey Jacobs had another before he was benched in the fourth quarter.
That’s inexcusable, and it reflects on the preparation and, yes, discipline, from everyone from Mayo to the worst lineman on the roster. Which, if you think about it, might be a tie among multiple players.
Prediction, or Bert Jones could sling it with anyone . . .
The ideal outcome: Maye bounces back from a rough game with one of his best ones, the defense takes advantage of a Richardson mistake or two or three, the running game comes to life, and the Patriots linemen know the snap count.
The likely outcome: One of those things happening (probably the Maye bounce-back) but no more than two. It won’t quite be enough. Colts 23, Patriots 21
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