What experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Dolphins game
The Patriots are seven-point underdogs for Sunday's game.
COMMENTARY
It’s only been a handful of starts, but at what point do you start to become concerned that Patriots personnel, as constructed, is going to turn Drake Maye into the next edition of Matthew Stanford with the Lions?
The reviews are pretty much universal that New England landed the right guy in the third-overall pick last spring. Based on his rookie season thus far, it only makes you wonder what the overwhelmed coaching staff saw behind the scenes while Jacoby Brissett was busy turning quarterback play into something not seen since leather helmets. Some are already suggesting the Patriots may have gotten the best of the top three (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Maye) quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL draft. They could be right.
It’s quite clear, thanks to more than just their 3-8 record, that the Patriot front office did unsatisfactory work in its drafting and financial decisions. De-facto general manager Eliot Wolf has been in the crosshairs for a number of his decisions, but drafting a guy who can’t catch or think (Ja’Lynn Polk) should be enough for the Krafts to have second thoughts about their man picking the groceries.
It’s imperative that the Patriots now build around the diamond they were lucky to bump into and not waste him away for X number of years, when he might be the top fantasy quarterback on the market … but you’re going to wind up trading him down the road to a team that cares. Or, at least one that’s not going to continually lowball him in contract negotiations all in the name of “team.”
But, damn it, if the kid isn’t fun to watch, even with next-to-nothing to work with.
This week’s predictions:
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Dolphins 27, Patriots 17. “Warning: This year’s Miami Dolphins — even surfing a two-game win streak — are not good enough to look past anybody and better not take lightly a down New England team on account of the short week ahead with a trip to play at Green Bay on deck Thanksgiving night. The risk of that will be there entering Sunday. Miami has beaten the rival Patriots three straight times and seven of the past eight including 15-10 in early October despite Tua Tagovailoa sidelined and Tyler Huntley pitching. Now Tua is back, playing well and 6-1 vs. this AFC East foe, and the Fins also have won the past four meetings in the 3-0-5. Miami flexed long drives and possession time in handling Las Vegas last week, and should be able to do the same against a Pats run defense that is average at best. (Miami whomped NE for 193 rush yards in that first meeting.) Pats are more wide-open on offense though since that first meeting, with new QB Drake Maye throwing 105 passes in past three games. That gives this the potential to bloom into an unexpected shootout, and to reveal the rookie Maye’s proneness to mistakes and picks. Dolphins should win to get within a game of .500 and draw playoff contention into view — but only if they’re giving the Pats their full attention and not already distracted by thoughts of Lambeau Field on a really cold Thursday night in Green Bay.”
Globe staff: Four of six go with the Patriots (+7).
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Dolphins 32, Patriots 21. “The Dolphins have won two straight off the bye to get back into the playoff race. Tua Tagovailoa is playing well since his return from the concussion issues. The Patriots have done some good things with Drake Maye, but this is a tough matchup on the road. Miami wins another.”
CBS Sports staff: Split (Miami -7).
NFL.com staff: All Dolphins.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Miami. “The Patriots are scrappy and I like Drake Maye, but the Dolphins simply have more talent and they’ve been playing better of late, easily beating the Rams and Raiders the last two weeks. I still think the Dolphins are frauds, but they should extend their winning streak to three games.”
Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Dolphins 28, Patriots 20. “Drake Maye is giving the Patriots a chance to win, and the team isn’t making a ton of mistakes. Miami is starting to wake up a little bit, though, and should be able to take care of business at home.”
Vic Tafur, The Athletic: Patriots (+7.5). “Both teams have improved since that 15-10 Miami win last month. The Dolphins got Tua Tagovailoa and some defensive players back, while the Patriots made the switch at quarterback to Drake Maye and welcomed defensive tackle Christian Barmore back last week. The Dolphins have won two in a row and Tagovailoa leads the league in EPA per dropback over the last four weeks at 0.37. That still doesn’t mean I want to lay 7.5 points. The Dolphins have a game coming up against the Packers on Thanksgiving, and the attention has to be a little divided considering they already beat the Patriots without Tagovailoa. Maye has a live arm, plus he has a run of 15 yards or longer in each of his six starts — he will make something happen late to lose by fewer than 7.5.
ESPN staff: Ten of 11 like Miami.
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Dolphins 31, Patriots 20. “The Dolphins are getting their groove back offensively around Tua Tagovailoa with the usual playmaking suspects for Mike McDaniel. but now they’re also adding big-time athletic tight end Jonnu Smith to that mix. Smith, the former Patriot, should be pumped to go after a team that gave up a TE touchdown last week while more of the field opens up for the running game and Tyreek Hill.”
Bill Bender, The Sporting News: Dolphins 28, Patriots 21. “The Patriots have become a high-volume passing attack with rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who has 40 passing attempts in two of the past three games. He also has four TDs and four interceptions. Miami is figuring it out again with Tua Tagovailoa, who is coming off his best game of the season. The Dolphins have won the past four home meetings in the series. “
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Dolphins 27, Patriots 16.
Chris Simms, Pro Football Talk: Dolphins 28, Patriots 17.
It says here: Dolphins 35, Patriots 20. You think this coaching staff is going to be able to produce a win at what has been New England’s House of Horrors, even when the Patriots are good?
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