What experts are predicting for Sunday’s Rams-Patriots game
The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs at home against a 4-5 Rams team.
COMMENTARY
Imagine if the three-win New England Patriots didn’t play a lesser quarterback for five straight weeks just to make new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt more comfortable.
We’re five games into the Drake Maye Experience and Patriots fans have to be thrilled, if not contentiously, about what they have seen from the rookie quarterback. It’s not as if Maye has lit the NFL on fire, but he has already shown, in flashes, what kind of potential might reside in that right arm of his.
Which should sort of frustrate you.
It’s not as if these Patriots would be hoisting the Lombardi anytime soon, but what we’re seeing from Maye now is what some, including head coach Jerod Mayo, saw from him during training camp. “I would say at this current point, Drake has outplayed Jacoby [Brissett],” Mayo said on the radio back in August.
Vic Tafur of The Athletic pointed out that, “when pressured, Brissett was 24th in EPA [Expected Points Added] per dropback, 19th in success rate and 24th in first down plus touchdown rate. Maye is sixth, 10th and 9th, respectively.”
On the precipice of Maye’s first start last month against the Houston Texans, Mayo said, “As a coach and the organization feels this way, we’re trying to win every game. At the time, we thought Jacoby would give us the best opportunity to go out and win games – protecting the football, running the offense.”
Note the “we” when Mayo is talking about the dubious decision to start Brissett for the first five weeks of the season. When it came time for Maye, Mayo was sure to point out, “It was solely my decision to make this choice.”
Was that Mayo trying to create some air of power in the building, or trying to distance himself from the original decision to start Brissett in the first place?
Now that Maye looks like he could be the real deal, he needs real coaching. If there’s been bickering about the kid from Day One on this staff, the search for capable hands should be the team’s top priority.
This week’s predictions:
Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Rams 24, Patriots 18. “Drake Maye is a guy to watch, and the Patriots have won two of their last three. The Rams were embarrassed against the Dolphins and should be able to bounce back, though they aren’t blowing out anybody.”
Globe staff: Five of six go with New England (+4.5).
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Rams 24, Patriots 23. “The Rams seemed uneven on offense in losing to the Dolphins on Monday night. Their lack of speed showed up. The Patriots seem to be growing each week offensively with Drake Maye. I look for the Patriots to hang around in this game and keep it close. Really close.”
CBS Sports staff: Four of seven pick the Patriots (+4.5).
NFL.com staff: All Rams.
Jimmy Kempski, PhillyVoice: Rams (-4.5). “I only got to watch one Eagles-Patriots joint practice this summer so I don’t want to come off sounding super informed about the Patriots’ training camp on such a small sample size, but it seemed pretty clear me that Drake Maye was always way better than Jacoby Brissett, and I kind of like what he has shown so far. A 4.5-point spread looks tasty for the Rams on the surface, and certainly I’m picking them to win, but I’d be wary of this matchup, which also happens to be a West Coast team traveling across the country for a 1 p.m. start.”
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Rams 23, Patriots 20. “L.A.’s offense was a no-show at home vs. Dolphins last Monday but expect better from Matthew Stafford’s gang against a Patriots team it doesn’t take a ton of points to beat. But New England earned some confidence with a nice road win at Chicago and looks like a nice enough home ‘dog to stay close and cover.”
Vic Tafur, The Athletic: Rams (-4.5). “The Rams defense looked great Monday night against the Dolphins and their offense couldn’t get out of its own way. Go figure. That should change against the Patriots, who don’t stop the run or pressure quarterbacks not named Caleb Williams. Rams running back Kyren Williams ranks third in carries (81) and fourth in touches (92) in the past four weeks but ranks 31st in EPA per rush (-0.24) and EPA per target/rush (-0.21). That should change this week. Matthew Stafford didn’t play well either in the loss to the Dolphins, but he still has the edge over the rookie Maye. The Patriots have offensive line issues and in the last four weeks, the Rams rank second in sacks (15) and interceptions (seven), as well as fourth in pass defensed (20). Defensive back Jaylen McCollough leads the NFL in snaps per splash play at 10.5 snaps. This kind of short-week, cross-country game is why they pay Sean McVay the big bucks.”
ESPN staff: Everybody picks the Rams.
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Rams 20, Patriots 17. “The Rams’ defense has a superstar rookie in Jared Verse who can help put good pressure on fellow rookie Drake Maye. The Patriots’ pass rush was anomalously great in Chicago, but Los Angeles likes to get the ball out quickly with Matthew Stafford. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can be a downfield matchup nightmare. The Patriots, however, can make it interesting late with some more fearless playmaking, running, and passing from Maye.”
Bill Bender, The Sporting News: Rams 22, Patriots 18. “The Rams are 1-3 S/U on the road this season, but the protection for Matthew Stafford has been better in the past four games. He took just one sack in three games ahead of the Monday Night Football matchup against Miami, and the defense is creating more turnovers. Patriots rookie Drake Maye has a 66.7-percent completion percentage in his past two starts, but he will be forced to take more chances here if the Rams get ahead early.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 20, Rams 17. “Reality might be settling in for the Rams, and the Patriots have taken to the spoiler role.”
Chris Simms, Pro Football Talk: Rams 23, Patriots 20.
It says here: Patriots 24, Rams 23. Matching last year’s win total in Week 11 isn’t anything to crow about. But, progress.
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