Here’s why the 3-7 Patriots have more in common with the talented Rams than one might think
Both teams are coming off of impressive defensive performances and were overly reliant on their field goal kickers last week.
Welcome to Season 13, Episode 11 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious yet lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup . . .
Given that they have won three of 10 games this season, the vibes for the Patriots are remarkably positive. And you know what? They should be.
The Patriots have won two of three, with victories over the Jets (always a satisfying victim) and Bears (hapless beyond belief) sandwiched around an overtime loss to the Titans (should have had that one, too).
Better yet, even beyond the much-needed victories, the real cause for present and future optimism is the performance of rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
Developing the No. 3 overall pick in April’s draft properly is by far the most important element of this season. Five starts into his career — Sunday’s matchup with the Rams will be his sixth — it’s accurate to say that the gifted and good-natured Maye has handled everything that comes with being an NFL quarterback on the field and off as well as anyone could have hoped.
It cannot be overlooked, either, that the Patriots staff, chiefly rookie coach Jerod Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, have done an excellent job coaching Maye, from helping him improve his footwork and other pre-draft flaws, to recognizing the right time to elevate him as the starting quarterback.
I’m among those who thought the decision to start him in Week 6 against the Texans was premature, given the dearth of skill talent in the offensive huddle and the chronic disarray of the offensive line.
Sure was wrong about that. Glad to be, too. Maye has elevated the modest talent around him, even with the predictable occasional mistakes of inexperience. His scrambling ability has taken a bit of heat off the offensive line, which has begun to find some consistency.
Other glimmers of hope, so sporadic in the six-game losing streak that followed the season-opening win over the unprepared Bengals, have become brighter. It’s too early to tell whether the Patriots have any true keepers among their young receivers, but Maye has a developing rapport with second-year players Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas, and even maligned rookie Ja’Lynn Polk.
This much is true, too. The Patriots were a drag to watch as that losing streak grew to four games, then five, then six. Maye has made them fun to watch, even when they are at a significant talent disadvantage, as they will be against the Rams.
The Rams feature the kind of high-end offensive talent — including receivers Cooper Kupp (41 catches, 382 yards, 2 touchdowns in five games) and Puka Nacua (21-250-0), and running back Kyren Williams (664 rushing yards, 8 TDs) — that is easy to envy. And future Hall of Fame quarterback Matthew Stafford (hey, he is 10th all time with 58,309 passing yards) is still on top of his game at age 36.
But the teams have more in common than one might think. Both are led by 38-year-old head coaches, with the Rams’ Sean McVay no longer a wunderkind, but now an eight-year veteran and one-time Super Bowl champ. Both teams were overly reliant on their field goal kickers last week, with Joey Slye hitting four field goals for the Patriots, while Joshua Karty’s five field goals accounted for all of the Rams’ points in a 23-15 loss to the Dolphins. Both teams are also coming off of impressive defensive performances, with the Patriots holding the Bears to 142 total yards, while the Rams limited the Dolphins to 238 yards.
The Rams’ one significant statistical advantage is their passing offense. Even with Kupp and Nacua’s injuries, the Rams are eighth in passing (234.6 yards per game) while the Patriots are 32nd (156.8). The Patriots have averaged 184.5 passing yards the past two games, which counts as progress for Maye, with even more necessary come Sunday.
Kick it off, Slye, and let’s get this thing started . . .
Three players worth watching other than the quarterbacks
Jared Verse: The Rams appear to have hit the jackpot with Verse, a strong (250 pounds) and speedy outside linebacker out of Florida State who was selected with the No. 19 overall pick in April’s draft. With 4.5 sacks — including one in each of the last three games — Verse trails team leaders Kobie Turner and Byron Young by a half-sack, and he leads the team in quarterback hits (14) and tackles for loss (11). He’s coming off one of his best games against the Dolphins, when he had four tackles, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and the aforementioned sack. The Rams’ pass defense has been mediocre statistically (219.6 yards per game, 22nd), but the Verse-led pass rush and a ballhawking secondary (safety Jaylen McCollough has four interceptions in the last five games) could force Maye into some regrettable decisions.
Rhamondre Stevenson: After running for just 82 yards on 37 carries over the previous three games, Stevenson delivered a steady performance against the Bears, gaining 74 of the Patriots’ 144 rushing yards. It is essential to the Patriots’ chances Sunday that he is productive again, and it won’t be as easy as the Rams’ No. 19 ranking against the run (127.6 yard per game) might make it seem. After holding the speedy Dolphins to 67 yards on 22 attempts last week, the Rams have to be feeling good about taking on the Patriots’ 22nd-ranked rushing offense (114.3 yards per game).
Jeremiah Pharms: The second-year defensive tackle had by far the best game of his young career against the Bears, with a sack and three tackles for loss. It’s too soon to tell whether it’s a sign of a budding playmaker or a one-off against as lousy team, so let’s just use Pharms as the catch-all for a Patriots defensive line — and perhaps defense as a whole — that is trending in the right direction, especially with Christian Barmore returning to practice on Thursday. Last week, the Patriots held the Bears to 73 rushing yards. The Rams’ rushing offense has been surprisingly ineffective, averaging just 94.1 yards per game, 26th in the league, so this is a chance to prove the Patriots’ recent progress is no fluke.
The flashback
If we put together a Top 40 countdown of Tom Brady’s best throws as a Patriot, it would probably feel like we were leaving out another 40 that belonged. But I can tell you, off the top of my head and with the utmost conviction, that there are two throws better than any of the other hundreds of beauties he unleashed during his 20 seasons in New England. The first was his 40-yarder, down the seam while under relentless siege, to Rob Gronkowski on fourth and 10 with a minute and a half remaining in the 2015 AFC Championship game loss to the Broncos. And the second? His perfectly placed 29-yard strike to a triple-covered Gronkowski midway through the fourth quarter that set up the game’s only touchdown in the Patriots’ 13-3 win over the Rams in Super Bowl LIII. Who knew then that it was the last magical moment of the second phase of the dynasty?
Grievance of the week
Let’s acknowledge this first: Bill Belichick’s assessment of the Patriots’ 19-3 victory over the Bears last Sunday was not wrong.
During his weekly appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show” — one his six media gigs, matching his number of Super Bowl victories in New England — Belichick ascribed the outcome primarily to the Bears’ ineptitude rather than anything that the Patriots had done.
“I think he’s done a good job when he’s been able to scramble and run around,” said Belichick of Maye. “He made some plays on play-action where he can separate the defense when the running game draws some of the coverage and linebackers up. But you know, to me, the bigger thing is where the Bears are. They can’t protect, they can’t move the ball, and they can’t score any points.”
Again, fair points, and an accurate assessment of Maye. Still, Belichick’s unwillingness to give any credit to Jerod Mayo and the Patriots’ defense — which sacked Bears quarterback Caleb Williams nine times, with a creative game plan that included a new wrinkle called “The Longhorn Package” for special teams ace and Texas alum Brenden Schooler — left me wondering whether he will ever praise his successor, or whether he will always be petty about the Patriots.
I hope not. Belichick not only is the all-time brilliant football mind, but he’s proven time and again that he has a compelling way of sharing his knowledge. It would be a bummer if his Patriots assessments are always going to be clouded by his divorce from the organization after 24 mostly incredible years. I want to take what he says at face value, because it’s so informative. But that’s hard to do, because of the bitterness that has seeped in.
And he could stand to be a little self-deprecating about the state of the Patriots. After all, Mayo just has to go 1-6 the rest of the way to match Belichick’s record from his final year. He’s the greatest coach professional football has ever seen, but he was complicit in his own ending in New England.
All along, I wished Belichick had remained coach of the Patriots. But now . . . well, I don’t believe he would have drafted Maye, based on his blunt draft-night assessment of the No. 3 overall pick’s flaws. And this is pretty easy to acknowledge after watching Maye for five starts: I’d much rather have the kid QB than the legendary coach.
Prediction, or Ricky Proehl sure was right about a dynasty being born that particular night …
Stafford has played 215 regular-season games in his 16-year career. Just two have come against the Patriots — a 34-9 loss in November 2014, and a 26-10 win in September 2018, both while he was with the Lions. His experience and advantage in weaponry will be just enough to collect his first win over the Patriots with his current team, and for the Rams to earn their first win ever at Gillette Stadium. Rams 23, Patriots 20.
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