What experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Jets game
Most expect the Jets not only to win, but also cover the seven-point spread.
COMMENTARY
The New York Jets are heavily favored to beat the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. If the Jets win, it would be the first time in 24 years that they have swept their New England rival.
But have you watched the Jets?
Yes, yes, glass houses and all. But there was a very brief point when the Patriots were up 10-0 last weekend on the Jacksonville Jaguars that I wondered to myself, “How many 2-5 teams have gone on to make the playoffs?”
As it turns out, only two, or 1.07 percent of all teams, over the past 56 years have made the playoffs after opening the season with six losses in their first eight games; the 1970 Bengals and the 2020 Commanders. The Steelers nearly pulled it off in 2022.
If the Patriots had managed to win in London last weekend, they would have just as many wins as both the Dolphins and Jets. They would have been only two games off the wild card chase. It wouldn’t be a serious playoff chase, but hey, we’ll take whatever comes our way.
The only pro football team to start the season 1-6 and still make the playoffs was the pre-Super Bowl era Cincinnati Bengals in 1960. Those Bengals won their final eight games.
These Patriots will not.
But they’ll probably beat the Jets.
This week’s predictions
The Globe: Three of six pick the Patriots (+7)
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Jets 31, Patriots 14. “The Patriots are back home after a loss in London to the Jaguars. The defense had major issues in that game, which is why Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense can get right here against that unit. Look for the Jets to get a big performance from Rodgers and Breece Hall as they blow out New England.”
CBS Sports staff: Five of eight pick the Jets (-7).
NFL.com staff: All Jets.
Jimmy Kempski, PhillyVoice: Jets. “This is a matchup between the second-worst team in the NFL and a team led by a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers whose 2024 season is reminding me a bit of Tom Brady’s “Why the hell did I come back” 2022 season. I guess the difference between Brady and Rodgers is that Brady was still kinda good that year, and Rodgers has kinda stunk this year.”
Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Jets 24, Patriots 14. “The Jets had to feel pretty good in Week 3 when they smoked the Patriots 24-3. Little did Gang Green know, they’d lose their next four games and their head coach. Two pretty bad teams. New England is worse.”
Vic Tafur, The Athletic: Jets (-7). “Aaron Rodgers didn’t blame the latest loss on Mike Williams. He said something about the players listening to the media too much and then something about they need to have more fun. Oh yeah, and it might help if he was more accurate. Rodgers is only completing 58.8 percent of his passes the last three weeks, 31st in the league and down from 67.4 percent the first three weeks. And he’s got plenty of time to throw, as the Jets possess three offensive linemen ranking in the top 19 in pressure percentage: John Simpson (2.1 percent, eighth), Alijah Vera-Tucker (2.2 percent, 12th) and Joe Tippmann (2.8 percent, 19th). The Patriots, meanwhile, were called “soft” by coach Jared Mayo, who later clarified that they weren’t soft, but they were playing soft. Thanks, coach. The Jets dominated the Patriots, 24-3, a month ago, and I don’t really think it matters how the Patriots players respond to Mayo or how much better Drake Maye is than Jacoby Brissett. Breece Hall should have a big day against a bad Patriots defense, and it doesn’t really matter how well Rodgers plays. As long as he is not really bad …”
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Jets (-7). “New England owned this series with 15 straight wins before NYJ won to close last season and then dominated 24-3 in Week 3. Now the struggling AFC East rivals meet with Pats served up as an antidote for Aaron Rodgers and a Planes squad looking for the runway after four straight losses. Rodgers and Davante Adams will start clicking. Pats show a bit more pop with Drake Maye but have failed to cover in six straight losses.”
ESPN staff: Ten of 11 pick the Jets (Seth Wickersham).
MMQB staff: Jets, Jets, Jets.
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Jets 24, Patriots 14. “The Jets have a much-needed get-well game with Aaron Rodgers in in his second game back with Davante Adams. New York can dictate the action offensively with a lot of help from the running game setting up more efficient downfield passe. This is a tough draw for counterpart Drake Maye, even with the Jets battling some injuries vs. the pass.”
Bill Bender, The Sporting News: Jets 23, Patriots 13. “This line could tick up to a full touchdown before kickoff. The Jets are in desperation mode now after a Sunday Night Football flop at Pittsburgh. New York has lost four straight games, and it’s going to take a few weeks to re-establish the Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams connection. New England has failed to cover in six straight losses since the opener. Drake Maye has played well despite a running game that has averaged just 60 yards over the past two weeks. Will this be a mirror image of the Jets’ 24-3 victory in Week 3?”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Jets 23, Patriots 17.
Chris Simms: Pro Football Talk: Jets 27, Patriots 17.
It says here: Patriots 26, Jets 20. Here’s win No. 2, because it’s the Jets and little other reason than that. Training camp is only nine months away.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com