What experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Jaguars game

A few analysts are giving the Patriots a chance to win on Sunday as they take on a fellow 1-5 team.

Drake Maye hopes to get his first career win in his second NFL start. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

October 18, 2024

4 minutes to read

COMMENTARY

I’m going to start watching non-streaming NFL games on a DVR time delay, primarily so I can avoid running into Flo, Jamie, Jake, Mara, the return of the caveman nobody wanted, the lizard, the duck, Deion Sanders, Nick Saban, Patrick Mahomes, J.K. Simmons, Doug, the emu, the melting wax statue, Dr. Rick, Case Keenum, the talking baby, Gronk, Paintin’ Manning, Andy Reid, and the Mayhem guy who looks like a young Mr. Blonde for the better part of three hours.

Insurance commercials have become the most ubiquitous spenders in television advertising, particularly with the NFL, whose games are littered with endless spots for State Farm, USAA, AllState, Farmers, Progressive, and Liberty Mutual. According to S&P Global Marketing Intelligence, “Progressive reported about $1.22 billion in advertising expense in 2023, down from $1.73 billion in 2022.” Earlier this year, GEICO slashed its marketing budget (from $1 billion to $838.2 million; couldn’t you tell?) “to offset the effects of loss-cost inflation.” GEICO had spent more than a billion dollars on advertising annually for the last decade.

According to NPR, insurance companies sought to raise homeowners’ premiums by and average of more than 11 percent last year. CBS reports that the typical U.S. auto insurance policy will jump 22 percent this year. That comes after drivers saw their policies jump 24 percent in 2023.

Maybe $2 billion is a drop in the bucket as far as these companies are concerned (floods alone can cost insurance companies nearly $5 billion), but instead of running Flo down our throats until we’re in the ground, maybe spend some of that insane marketing budget on lowering premiums for your customers.

Just a thought.

This week’s predictions:

Globe staff: Five out of six (Tara Sullivan) pick New England (+5.5).

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Jaguars 29, Patriots 21. “This is the dog game of the week. Both teams have major issues, but at least the Patriots have the excuse of starting a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye. With Jacksonville being the last-ranked passing defense, he might hit them with some big plays. But Jacksonville is the better team and Trevor Lawrence will play a little better.”

CBS Sports staff: Split (Jacksonville (-5.5).

NFL.com staff: All Jags.

Jimmy Kempski, PhillyVoice: Jaguars (-5.5). “What did the British do to deserve this turd of a matchup? From a selfish perspective, I’m rooting for (a) a Jaguars loss in this game and (b) for this game to do awful TV ratings, so that the NFL flexes the Eagles-Jags Week 9 game out of Sunday Night Football.”

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Patriots 21, Jaguars 18. “If the Jaguars turn in another embarrassing performance, London might lose all interest in eventually getting an NFL team. New England is similarly inept, so this one across the pond stays close.”

Vic Tafur, The Athletic: Jacksonville (-5.5). “The Jaguars were all set to fire coach Doug Pederson like all terrible teams do when they leave London. But they remembered they were staying another week, so they postponed that for a while. We’re just guessing that’s how that went, and the three or four Pederson defenders out there would tell you that Jaguars receivers dropped four touchdowns in the ugly loss to the Bears last week. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. leads the league in maximum speed reached during a play for receivers at 22.15 mph, but his four drops rank 54th among 59 qualified WRs. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. may miss this game, which is good because Tank Bigsby is better. Laying 5.5 points with the Jaguars and their lame-duck coach is absurd until you consider that they have been in London all week. Body clocks, baby.”

Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Jaguars 24, Patriots 20. “Second straight weekend in the U.K. for Jaguars but this time it’s a “home” game. (Wonder if it feels like one to Jacksonville fans making the 4,300-mile trip?) New England leads all-time series 12-2 including a 50-10 rout in last meeting in ‘22, but these Pats are in full rebuild mode and now with a rookie QB in Drake Maye. Jax packs enough offensive pop to win, but lean Pats to cover after not doing so in first five losses.”

ESPN staff: Seven of 10 pick the Jaguars.

MMQB staff: Five of six pick the Jags.

Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Patriots 27, Jaguars 24 (Iyer’s upset of the week) “The Patriots have renewed confidence with Drake Maye at quarterback, unlocking their key passing weapons at just the right time before seeing Jacksonville’s putrid pass defense in London. The Jaguars have been in an absolute fog in coverage all over the field. Whether they use Trevor Lawrence or Maye’s first-round QB predecessor Mac Jones, the Jaguars will lose a high-scoring affair that might be the real last game for Doug Pederson.”

Bill Bender, The Sporting News: Jaguars 24, Patriots 19. “The Jaguars will stay in London after a blowout loss against the Bears. New England has failed to cover in five straight losses, but Drake Maye showed potential in his first start with three TDs. He also had two interceptions and took four sacks. These are two bad teams, but the Jaguars are a little better at run defense and have had a week to acclimate to London.”

Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Jaguars 24, Patriots 14.

Chris Simms, Pro Football Talk: Jaguars 23, Patriots 17.

It says here: Jaguars 21, Patriots 17. Changing the quarterback doesn’t change bad coaching.