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3 reasons why starting Drake Maye vs. Texans is a bad move by the Patriots
Drake Maye's first NFL start will be against an imposing Texans defense.
COMMENTARY
The Drake Maye era has officially begun.
Following weeks of speculation, New England reportedly made the change at quarterback on Tuesday — putting veteran Jacoby Brissett on the bench and handing the keys of the offense to Maye.
Jerod Mayo and the Patriots’ decision to reshuffle their offense comes in the midst of a four-game losing streak, including a dreadful 15-10 defeat doled out by the Dolphins on Sunday.
Given Brissett’s slow processing ability and struggles with hitting receivers deep down the field, Maye’s arm strength and athleticism may give a beleaguered offense a shot in the arm.
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But the timing of the Patriots’ QB succession plan raises plenty of eyebrows, especially at this juncture of what is shaping up to an arduous 2024 season.
Here’s three reasons why New England is making the wrong call by turning to Maye in Week 6.
A brutal matchup against the Texans
It was all but inevitable that the Patriots were going to turn to Maye at some point this season.
But the timing here is confusing, especially with the Patriots afforded a prime opportunity to start Maye in Week 5 against a dreadful Dolphins team.
Even with the expected growing pains that will come with Maye’s first season in the NFL ranks, a debut against a broken Dolphins offense would at least give New England’s rookie some margin of error to work with.
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Sure, a Dolphins team averaging a meager 12.0 points per game might be a tomato-can matchup. But a win is a win, and one that’d be welcomed by a rookie QB looking to build a foundation for the future.
Instead, Maye is now set to cut his teeth against a Texans team boasting an imposing defensive unit.
Here’s the stat line of the five QBs who have matched up against the Texans (4-1) so far this season:
Anthony Richardson (Colts) – 9-for-19, 212 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, two sacks
Caleb Williams (Bears) – 23-for-37, 174 yards, two interceptions, seven sacks
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) – 18-for-33, 169 yards, two touchdowns, one sack
Sam Darnold (Vikings) – 17-for-28, 181 yards, four touchdowns, four sacks
Josh Allen (Bills) – 9-for-30, 131 yards, one touchdown, one sack
Not exactly the softest landing spot for Maye — especially against a Houston defense with the lowest completion percentage rate in the NFL.
Be it the Dolphins game last week or a softer schedule after this Texans matchup (Oct. 20 vs. Jacksonville, Nov. 3 at Tennessee, Nov. 10 at Bears, Nov. 17 vs. Rams), the Patriots had several prime opportunities to ease Maye into a starting role.
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Instead, it’s a bout against a Texans defense that has made life miserable for some talented QBs already.
Good luck, kid.
A poor supporting cast
This might fall in lockstep with the previous point about Houston’s stout defense.
But the personnel around Maye isn’t exactly equipped to support him. Sunday’s loss to Miami was arguably an improvement from we’ve seen from New England’s O-line grouping. But that’s far from a compliment.
In total, the Patriots coughed up two sacks, nine QB hits, and nine holding penalties against the Dolphins.
The Patriots have relinquished 19 sacks through five games this season, the second-most in the league.
The underlying numbers are just as ugly.
“In their 1-4 start, the Patriots’ offensive line has produced a pass block win rate of 41.6%, which ranks last in the NFL,” ESPN’s Mike Reiss wrote Tuesday. “In-game statisticians recorded 49 hits against Brissett, although some of those came with Brissett holding onto the football too long or receivers struggling to get open.
“Since ESPN began tracking QB pressures in 2009, only the 2022 Bears (47.3%) have allowed a higher pressure rate through five games of a season than this year’s Patriots (46.8%).”
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Maye’s arm should allow him to heave the ball down the field, while his speed will likely let him scramble out of danger more quickly than Brissett.
Still, a Texans defense featuring a pair of pass rushers with more than 20 QB pressures this year (Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter) have to be licking their chops going into Sunday’s matchup.
It’s an abrupt shift from whatever ‘plan’ Patriots had in place
Sure, it was always unlikely that the Patriots were going to redshirt Maye for the entire 2024 season.
Maybe Eliot Wolf and New England’s top brass weren’t going to completely mimic the Packers’ strategy of giving a promising young quarterback ample time to marinate on the sideline. But starting Maye in Week 6 couldn’t have been part of whatever contingency plan was cooked up in case Brissett underwhelmed.
There have been signs in place that Maye — even as a raw and unproven rookie — offered a higher ceiling than Brissett in 2024.
Even Mayo himself admitted that Maye “outplayed” the veteran Brissett during preseason action. But New England stuck with Brissett, focusing on the long-term outlook of the franchise by refusing to throw Maye into the fire with this roster around him.
After deciding to give Maye reps in garbage time of their Week 3 loss to the Jets, Mayo and the Patriots still kept Brissett atop the depth chart. A two-turnover performance by Brissett against the 49ers the following weekend wasn’t enough to warrant Maye leapfrogging him going into Week 5, apparently.
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But now — against this Texans team — is when the Patriots believe that Maye is ready to take over?
There’s no way that was part of any “plan” — not at this stage of the season.
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