What experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-49ers game
The Patriots are the first double-digit underdog of the 2024 NFL season.
COMMENTARY
Whether or not the Patriots have serious plans to start rookie quarterback Drake Maye this season, the team is still in desperate need of a veteran quarterback to serve as a backup before New England gets into Joe Milton III territory.
Jacoby Brissett has been fine in the role as a stopgap between himself and the rookie, but the Patriots’ porous line has led to an early-season beating for the quarterback. Now, with the Patriots having started 1-2 (what exactly did we expect?) the calls for Maye to get the football have begun to increase in intensity. It’s a good plan, putting the franchise’s best hope behind an offensive line the Patriots neglected to fix in order to protect that very asset. Ask Joe Burrow how that went for him.
Alas, if and when Brissett goes down, Maye is going to be thrust into game action. Now, if he gets hurt, or, more likely, the coaching staff pulls him for fear of manslaughter charges, it’s time for the other rookie in Milton.
In other words, the Patriots need someone.
Do you try to bring Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones (seemingly a target for the Miami Dolphins) back to Foxborough instead of riding with Milton? Should they trade for malcontent Russell Wilson? Free agent Ryan Tannehill might be a good fit for what they need. Joe Flacco is on speed dial until the year 2033.
Then again, some, like Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics, think the Patriots have the best backup situation in the league. On Maye, he writes: “I’m high on first-round rookies because the mean expectation for them in Year 1 is a below-average starter with upside. That’s a pretty favorable assessment compared to the rest of this list. The expectation is particularly high for Maye, a high-end prospect selected with the No. 3 overall pick in April. He threw for 62 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions over 26 starts at North Carolina. Normally I’d hold not winning the job in training camp against him, but he had solid competition in Jacoby Brissett and Patriots coach Jerod Mayo even said Maye outplayed Brissett in the summer. This was more about giving Maye time to develop and putting him in a position to succeed. Given all that, I’m putting Maye at No. 1.”
Agree with it or not, start that countdown.
This week’s predictions:
Globe staff: Five of six (Christopher Price) pick the 49ers (-10.5).
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 49ers 24, Patriots 7. “This is a long trip for a Patriots team that isn’t playing well against a 49ers team that has a lot of injuries. The 49ers blew their game against the Rams last week, but they will get back on track here. Brock Purdy will play well, while the defense limits a bad Pats offense.”
CBS Sports staff: Six of eight go with San Francisco (-10).
NFL.com staff: Niners across the board.
Jimmy Kempski, PhillyVoice: San Francisco (-10). “The Niners have a slew of injuries, and they’re still double-digit favorites over the Pats. The Patriots somehow beat the Bengals on the road Week 1 and they took the Seahawks to OT again on the road Week 2, but I think we saw in Week 3 against the Jets what they’ll likely look like this season, which is a team that can’t protect its quarterback.”
Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: 49ers 30, Patriots 18. “The 49ers are steamed after losing at the Rams. New England’s offense is terrible, with no real receivers and a flimsy offensive line. Jacoby Brissett is running for his life much of the time.”
Vic Tafur, The Athletic: Patriots (+10). “If Jake Moody hadn’t barely missed a field goal and some guy named Ronnie Bell hadn’t dropped a pass, every talking head this week would have been yelling about Brock Purdy and how he was in the MVP conversation after looking very sharp without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle. So maybe that’s a good thing. The 49ers will bounce back this week to even their record at 2-2, but laying 10 points is a tough pill to swallow. Especially after they lost defensive tackle Javon Hargrave for the year with a torn triceps. They can’t stop the run now, so Rhamondre Stevenson should be able to be a nuisance. Hargrave was also effective with a 13.3 percent pressure rate, but he won’t be missed as much there because the Patriots are the worst in the league in pressure allowed at 45.8 percent. The Patriots are not very good, but double-digit favorites with losing records are 35-52-2 against the spread since 2003, per BetMGM, and the underdogs have bitten my ankle too many times already.”
ESPN staff: Niners, Niners, and Niners (plus five more Niners).
USA Today staff: Niners x six.
MMQB staff: Six more for San Francisco.
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: 49ers 27, Patriots 9. “The only two previous spreads of 9-plus points this parity-soaked season have seen the dogs win outright in both. Not this time. San Fran is wracked by injuries — led by Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel still out — but remains second favorite to win Super Bowl at most sportsbooks. And Niners have the firepower left to overwhelm the Patriots all over the field. TE George Kittle could return, but either way Brock Purdy will hit big against Pats’ subpar pass D.”
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: 49ers 24, Patriots 10. “The 49ers need to smash someone after a 1-2 start. The Patriots will be that team and provide a needed offensive and defensive break for the injury-riddled Niners. Brock Purdy loves passing at home and will build on his awesome game in Los Angeles last week. The Patriots will have limited success moving the ball on the Niners with Jacoby Brissett remaining overwhelmed.”
Bill Bender, The Sporting News: 49ers 31, Patriots 17. “It’s a huge spread, and it’s key not to over-value last week’s performance by either team. The 49ers let a late lead slip, and they need stars Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to get healthy. There have been two NFL games with spreads of nine points or more this season, and the underdog has won straight-up both times. New England pulled that off in Week 1. This time, the 49ers pull away in the second half behind Brock Purdy, who averages 280.7 passing yards per game with a revolving-door supporting cast.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: 49ers 27, Patriots 10.
Chris Simms, Pro Football Talk: 49ers 27, Patriots 17.
It says here: 49ers 27, Patriots 13. Are the Patriots going to be the team we saw the first two weeks of the season, or are they really more like the one that got stomped by the Jets? Hope for the former, expect the latter.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com