4 more fearless predictions for the Patriots in 2024
The team won four games last year and finished last in the AFC East.
Back by mild-to-zero demand, and soon to be accompanied by the dull but all-too-familiar hum of mockery, I present to you — ta-da! — my predictions for the 2024 Patriots.
Otherwise known as a transparent attempt to escape last year’s particularly pathetic Patriots prediction. A desperate attempt at a redemption that might not be entirely deserved.
Last year, I told you — with the swollen confidence of an influencer with 323,841 Instagram followers and no discernible talent — that the 2023 Patriots would chalk up 10 wins and make the playoffs.
“Amazing what wonders a competent offensive coordinator can work for a young quarterback,” I wrote, certain that the words would someday be considered prescient by the many, many scholars who have dedicated their lives to tracking sportswriters’ football predictions.
“The offense will be better than conventional wisdom suggests. . . . it all adds up to a playoff berth.”
I have been informed that the words were not prescient. The Patriots did not win 10 games last year. They won four, and it feels like they won about, oh, two. They did not earn a playoff berth. They finished last in the AFC East and backslid into the No. 3 pick in the draft.
Oh, and they also fired the greatest coach in NFL history, that young quarterback started chucking alley-oops instead of passes and was dispatched to Jacksonville, and that competent offensive coordinator is now the head coach at Boston College, where he might just have a better offensive line than the one he left behind.
So much happened. Not much of it was good. In retrospect, I put too much faith in Bill Belichick’s coaching acumen being able to overcome the myriad roster deficiencies. I think he did too. And while Mac Jones was a limited quarterback with an assortment of annoying tendencies on and off the field, I did not expect Belichick to essentially abandon trying to develop a player who had not so long ago been chosen in the first round.
Ah well, they’re both in a good spot — Jones in his hometown adjusting to his true calling as a backup, while a practically ebullient Belichick is appearing on pretty much every media outlet that isn’t operated by Kraft Sports and Entertainment.
There is no fancy new crystal ball required to recognize that this is going to be a rough season. I put the Patriots down for four wins in our Globe staff predictions, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they are winless deep into October.
As exasperating as that might be to watch Sunday after Sunday, it’s how it has to be. It’s best for them to be bad. It appears they had a strong draft this year. Do it again in 2025 and they’ll be closer to the surface than they are to rock bottom.
In the meantime, here are four predictions for a Patriots season that is lost before it even begins. One for each win, if you will.
1. Hunter Henry will lead the team in receptions. I figure Jacoby Brissett — presuming his rib cage and various limbs and joints can survive the Vederian Lowe/Chukwuma Okarafor experience at left tackle — starts the first six games (and first six losses) before Drake Maye takes over behind a hopefully more cohesive line in Week 7.
Brissett has always been one to utilize his tight end, and in Henry, who has a high of 60 catches in a season, he has a reliable target.
Ja’Lynn Polk will come on late and build a bond for the future with Maye. DeMario Douglas could easily lead this team in receptions, but I’m skeptical about his ability to stay healthy.
2. Keion White will finish with more sacks than last year’s team leader. Which means at least 9, since Christian Barmore led the Patriots with 8.5.
The Patriots need White, the almost comically stoic 2023 second-rounder, to take a huge step forward if they are going to have a competent pass rush. Barmore is out indefinitely while being treated for blood clots, and Matthew Judon, who had 32 sacks in 38 games as a Patriot, is a Falcon.
Joshua Uche, who had just 3 sacks last season, is a complementary piece at best. White needs to emerge, and there’s no reason why he won’t.
3. Two Patriots will be selected for the Pro Bowl festivities. I think the defense, which was so resilient last year while constantly being put in lousy field position by a wretched offense, is going to fall off, maybe by a lot.
Barmore’s status is a massive question mark. Steve Belichick, a fine coach who dealt with too much nepotism nonsense after he proved himself, is gone. Mayo can’t focus on the defense as much as he did a season ago with his new all-encompassing responsibilities.
Oh yeah, and they fired the greatest defensive mind in football history.
That’s a lot for new defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington to overcome. But he does have some authentic talent at his disposal, including the two players who will make the skills competition that has replaced the actual Pro Bowl game: safety Jabrill Peppers, who really deserves to be on a contending team, and second-year cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
4. The Patriots will end up with the No. 2 overall pick. No, the Sundays won’t be much fun this season. But at least one of the best players we watch on Saturdays this season will be a part of the Patriots’ future.
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