NFL mock draft roundup: Will the Patriots stand pat at No. 3 following first week of free agency?
The Patriots still have plenty of holes to fill on their roster following free agency, but most mock drafts aren't projecting them to trade down.
The first week of NFL free agency is in the books. With most of the top names already finding new homes, the attention is turning to the draft.
The Patriots retained nearly all of their top free agents in the first week of the new league year. However, they didn’t make many impactful outside additions as veteran Jacoby Brissett headlined the list of players the Patriots brought in.
So, the Patriots’ biggest needs (quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver) still need to be addressed at some point this offseason. Will they still select a quarterback at No. 3 or will they trade down to recuperate more assets after the Vikings made an interesting trade on Friday?
Here’s what the latest mock drafts have the Patriots doing following an eventful first week of free agency.
ESPN: UNC QB Drake Maye
Following the Vikings’ deal with the Texans to obtain an extra first-round pick, many speculated that they could be eyeing to move up to the No. 3 overall pick in order to get Maye.
ESPN’s Field Yates has the Vikings trading up, but not with the Patriots, projecting a deal where they get the No. 5 overall pick from the Chargers. Yates has the Patriots standing pat so they can select Maye themselves.
“The Patriots have a runway in place for a young quarterback, and while Jacoby Brissett could definitely start Week 1 after signing a one-year deal with the Pats, I still think they have to go QB in the draft,” Yates wrote. “Besides, Brissett’s presence would allow the 21-year-old Maye to develop as needed. He has all the tools to be a star, even if he needs a bit of seasoning. There is no consolation prize among the three top quarterbacks in this class. They are all really good. And Maye has immense upside with his terrific arm.”
Maye has been lauded as a prospect for quite some time, with some draft evaluators placing him right behind USC’s Caleb Williams as the top two quarterbacks in this year’s draft since before the 2023 season started.
The former Tar Heel showed strong passing and running abilities in college. He threw for 4,321 yards, 38 touchdowns, and seven interceptions while rushing for 698 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022. His stats took a bit of a dip last season, but Maye was still pretty good as he threw for 3,608 yards, 24 touchdowns, and nine interceptions with 449 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns.
NBC Sports Boston: UNC QB Drake Maye
NBC Sports Boston’s Phil Perry also has the Patriots taking Maye with the third overall pick through the first wave of free agency, believing that the Commanders will nab Jayden Daniels at two.
“Maye is just 21 years old, he is the prototype physically, he’s seen as having a high football IQ, and he impressed New England with how he interviewed in their first meeting,” Perry wrote. “The opportunities to draft marquee quarterbacks are too few and far between for the Patriots to pass here, so all that’s left for them to determine is whether or not they actually want to start him in his rookie season.”
Even though Maye was viewed as the second-best quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft behind Caleb Williams for several months, there’s been a recent change that has led some to think that Daniels will be the second quarterback selected. In fact, Daniels is the betting favorite to be the No. 2 overall pick while Maye is the betting favorite to be the No. 3 overall pick after the first week of free agency.
In addition to having the Patriots select a quarterback with their top pick, Perry also has New England addressing its two other top needs with its next two picks. He has the Patriots drafting Arizona offensive tackle Jordan Morgan in the second round and UNC wide receiver Devontez Walker in the third round.
“Speed, speed and more speed,” Perry wrote of the Patriots’ second- and third-round picks in his mock draft. “The Patriots need difference-makers at the receiver position. And though they’d have a better chance of landing themselves a true No. 1 by using No. 34 overall on a wideout, the drop-off at tackle is even more stark. So this is the path they choose: quarterback, tackle, receiver.”
Even though they were college teammates, Maye and Walker didn’t get much playing time. The receiver missed the first four games of the 2023 season because the NCAA declared him ineligible following his transfer from Kent State. He ended up recording 41 receptions for 699 yards and seven touchdowns over eight games.
The Ringer: UNC QB Drake Maye
Similar to Yates, The Ringer’s Ben Solak also has the Vikings trading up in his most recent mock draft, but not with the Patriots. Instead, he has Minnesota swapping the 11th pick with Tennesse for the seventh pick as New England stays at three to draft Maye.
However, Solak also isn’t convinced that the Patriots are for sure staying at No. 3, either.
“A trade back would make a ton of sense for a team with needs all across the roster,” Solak wrote. “But considering the Patriots’ behavior in free agency—bolstering the offensive line with Michael Onwenu and [Chukwuma] Okorafor; securing wide receiver Kendrick Bourne and trying to sign free agent WR Calvin Ridley—they seem to be setting the table for a rookie quarterback.”
As Solak later mentioned, the Patriots at least have a placeholder at quarterback in Brissett if they opt to draft a quarterback later and sit him in 2024 or wait until 2025 to add a quarterback in the draft. Brissett started 11 games for the Browns in 2022, working under new Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.
CBS Sports: Washington WR Rome Odunze (No. 11 pick), Washington QB Michael Penix (No. 23 pick)
CBS Sports’ Kyle Stackpole has the Patriots and Vikings executing the pick swap that many have speculated could happen in recent days in his mock draft, giving New England the 11th and 23rd overall picks for the third pick.
While Stackpole didn’t clarify if the Patriots got any other additional draft picks, recent history suggests that New England might be able to get a future first-round pick as well if it made such a trade with Minnesota.
As four quarterbacks go in the top 10 of Stackpole’s mock draft, he has the Patriots grabbing one of the top three receiver prospects (Odunze) in the draft with their first pick before pairing him with his quarterback from the last two seasons (Penix). The Penix-Odunze duo was arguably the best quarterback-receiver combo in college football in 2023, with Penix throwing for 4,903 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Odunze was his top target, catching 92 passes for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns to lead Washington to the national title game.
As shown by Stackpole’s mock draft, a trade down with the Vikings could be the quickest way for the Patriots to fill the biggest holes on their roster. On top of getting a quarterback and a receiver in the first round, they’d still have the 34th pick to possibly select an offensive tackle.
NBC Sports: UNC QB Drake Maye
Continuing a similar trend, NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak has the Patriots staying at three to pick Maye as the Vikings fall short in their attempt to move into the top three.
“Drake Maye checks more of the traditional NFL quarterback boxes than Daniels, though he obviously doesn’t have Daniels’ rushing potential,” Dvorchak wrote.
“[Maye’s] an early declare with prototypical size (6’4/223) and an incredible deep ball,” Dvorchak added. “With Daniels and Williams already gone, Maye is a no-brainer for Jerrod Mayo and Co.”
As Dvorchak pointed out, Maye (or Daniels, for that matter) might end up being too good of a quarterback option for the Patriots to pass on, even if the Vikings after a haul of picks. Maye’s drawn some comparisons to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert for his arm strength and mobility.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that Maye is going to be as good as both quarterbacks. But the consensus among draft evaluators appears to be that there’s a drop-off following the top three quarterbacks in the draft and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, who’s been viewed as the fourth-best quarterback and is also being included in the top 10 of mock drafts.
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