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Should Patriots trade down in the 2024 Draft? Weighing the pros and cons of a franchise-altering move
Passing on either Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels might land the Patriots a haul of additional draft picks.
Things have changed around Foxborough over the last few months.
But even if Bill Belichick is no longer running the show with the Patriots’ draft plans, that’s not to say that Eliot Wolf and New England’s new regime won’t take a page out of the legendary coach’s playbook — at least when it comes to trading down in the NFL Draft.
You’ve heard all of the usual suspects at this point when it comes to the Patriots and their coveted No. 3 overall pick in the upcoming 2024 Draft. Even though New England has several holes to fill across its roster, landing a franchise quarterback stands as the easiest avenue toward contention.
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But even if at least one of UNC’s Drake Maye or LSU’s Jayden Daniels will be available when the Patriots land on the clock, there is a valid argument for New England to trade down from No. 3 — especially if it allows the team to recoup more assets in what is looking like a multi-year rebuild.
Let’s weigh the pros and cons of such a seismic move from the Patriots:
PRO: New England could secure a ton of draft capital
Ultimately, if the Patriots have some reservations about one (or both) of Daniels or Maye, New England could take advantage of other teams’ infatuation with whichever blue-chip QB will still be available at their draft spot.
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As controversial as it might be for New England to take a pass on a QB at such a high draft spot, there should be a few teams willing to pay a steep price to leapfrog New England on the draft leaderboard.
The Athletic’s Dave Brugler laid out a roadmap for a potential deal between the Patriots and the QB-needy Vikings — with Minnesota handing New England pick No. 11, No. 23 “and another sweetener” for the third overall pick.
As mapped out by Conor Roche in a breakdown of other recent trade-downs from pick No. 3, New England could easily secure a pair of second-round picks, a late first-round pick and perhaps even a future first-round pick if they get a desperate team to bite on Draft Day.
The initial pain of seeing Maye or Daniels don another team’s jersey might sting for some Patriots fans. But swinging such a deal could let New England shore up several areas of the roster in short order.
PRO: New England could benefit from a deep draft
There’s no question that sticking with pick No. 3 offers New England the highest ceiling as far as their first draft selection — be it one of Maye/Daniels or arguably the most talented prospect in this class in Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
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But even if New England strikes a deal with another team holding a top-10 pick (or even the Vikings at No. 11), the Patriots should still be able to come away with a legit prospect thanks to a very deep draft.
If New England is still set on adding a QB, it could roll the dice and see if J.J. McCarthy is available further down in the top 10, even though the Michigan signal-caller may not be tabbed as a future franchise fixture.
But if New England is prioritizing other areas of need like offensive tackle or wide receiver? There’s a lot to like if the Patriots are moving down a few spots — and potentially adding another late first or early second-round pick in the process.
With left tackle still a major vacancy on New England’s roster, the Patriots could use their top-10 pick on a starting tackle like Notre Dame’s Joe Alt or Penn State’s Olumuyiwa Fashanu. An early second could allow them to snag someone like Houston’s Patrick Paul or Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton.
Harrison Jr. might be the unquestioned top pass-catcher available, but a pair of other top-10 locks in LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze have all of the makings of a proven No. 1 wideout. Another early second-round pick might be enough to land another talent like Georgia’s Ladd McConkey or Texas speedster Adonai Mitchell.
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With New England whiffing on potential free-agent targets like OT Tyron Smith and WR Calvin Ridley, all it might take is a draft-day trade to make up for what has generally been an underwhelming free agency for the Patriots so far.
CON: A franchise QB is an essential piece of a rebuild
The Patriots might be able to load up their roster in record time if they land another first or a pair of second-round picks in a deal involving pick No. 3.
But even if New England does shore up its O-line and add some playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, it may not mean all that much if the team needs to turn to Jacoby Brissett or a second-round QB for regular reps.
New England’s best bet at re-establishing itself as a premier power in the NFL rests on landing a franchise QB — a reality validated by teams currently fixed at the top of the league like the Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Bills, etc.
It should come as little surprise that franchises like the Packers and Texans are also poised for stronger returns in 2024, especially after their young QBs, Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, made significant strides this fall.
The Patriots might be rolling the dice in terms of hoping Maye/Daniels turns into a Stroud or Love. But if they hit on a QB — what might be a lengthy rebuild could be shortened by a few seasons.
Even if the Patriots build a stout roster in the next year or so, look no further than the 49ers as an example of what happens when a stacked roster invests everywhere but the QB position.
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If you don’t have a trusted signal-caller capable of executing in critical moments, you’re going to have a hard time getting over that hump.
PRO: New England needs way more than just a quarterback
Of course, even if the Patriots do draft one of Maye/Daniels at pick No. 3, they’re not exactly putting that rookie in the best spot to succeed — at least right out of the gate.
While the Chicago Bears have spent this offseason loading up on playmakers like Keenan Allen ahead of the expected arrival of USC QB Caleb Williams, the Patriots might be bringing aboard a young quarterback without a proven option at left tackle and a dearth of top-tier receiving threats.
Former NFL QB Dan Orlovsky might have said it best on ESPN’s “NFL Live” program earlier this week.
“I think I’d trade down and take the best player, non-quarterback,” Orlovsky said. “I don’t think this roster is set to take a quarterback. There are too many holes.”
If the Patriots are truly committed to an extensive rebuild and are sticking with a QB at No. 3, holding out Maye/Daniels for the entire season might be the best bet for 2024 — not only to secure another high draft pick in 2025, but to keep their most valuable asset under center safe in a season where New England might be plagued by pass-protection woes once again.
CON: The Patriots might be stuck with few options at QB
Armed with plenty of cap space entering this offseason, the Patriots had the fiscal flexibility to tackle their QB vacancy in a variety of ways.
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Even if it was going to yield short-term returns, the Patriots had the spending power capable of enticing a top QB on the free-agent market like Kirk Cousins — and had the draft capital to pluck a QB like Justin Fields out of Chicago.
Now, the Patriots have few contingency plans in place beyond rolling with Brissett and adding a QB with pick No. 3.
Plenty of top QBs on the open market like Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson have already signed. Fields was dealt to the Steelers for a conditional pick, while New England shipped Mac Jones to the Jaguars in exchange for a 2024 sixth-round pick.
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah didn’t mince words when asked this week about New England’s draft strategy.
“New England, to me, feels stuck,” Jeremiah told Zach Gelb of CBS Sports Radio. “Like, they are taking one. Everything that I’ve heard seems to be they are committed to staying at 3.”
Ultimately, New England’s approach with pick No. 3 is all going to come down to how the Patriots view whichever QB is available to them when they land on the clock.
Barring any major concerns about Daniels’ physical frame or Maye’s decision-making, New England needs to swing for the fences with a QB — and let the rest sort itself out in short order.
If the Patriots hit on Daniels/Maye, they have their QB for the future. And if they don’t? They’ll be able to hit the reset button and go fishing for another top-tier QB in another couple of years.
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Such is the reality handed to teams in desperate need of a franchise savior at quarterback.
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