What history says the Patriots could get for No. 3 pick if they trade it
The Patriots could opt to gain more draft capital if they aren't enamored with all three of the quarterback prospects.
The Vikings’ move to acquire a second first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft sparked further rumors that they could be eyeing to move up from the 11th pick in the draft.
If so, the Patriots seem to be a logical trade partner. The Vikings are searching for their next quarterbacks after losing Kirk Cousins in free agency and the Patriots hold the No. 3 overall pick, as many expect a quarterback to be taken with the first three selections.
Of course, the Patriots are in need of a long-term solution at quarterback, too. They moved on from Mac Jones earlier in the week and signed Jacoby Brissett to just a one-year deal in free agency.
But the Patriots also have several holes on their roster, particularly on offense, that still need to be addressed after a relatively uneventful free agency. Even prior to New England’s conservative approach to free agency, some speculated it could trade down from the No. 3 spot as the rebuilding team only has one pick in each of the first five rounds.
If the Patriots opt to trade down from the No. 3 overall pick, there is some precedent on what they could get. Since 2000, a team has traded down from the No. 3 overall pick five times.
So, let’s look at each of those trades and see how they might be applicable to this year’s draft.
2012 NFL Draft
Entering Draft Day in 2012, the Vikings held the No. 3 pick but traded down to No. 4 with the Browns so Cleveland could select Trent Richardson. Minnesota only received Day 3 picks in return, getting fourth- (No. 118 overall pick), fifth- (No. 139), and seventh-round (No. 211) picks from Cleveland.
The Cardinals, who hold the fourth selection in this year’s draft, don’t need a quarterback. But they could feel inclined to move up if they feel like another team might be looking to leapfrog them in order to select Marvin Harrison Jr. or another top receiver in the draft.
If the Cardinals wanted to make the move up to No. 3, the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart would suggest that the Patriots should receive a little bit more than what the Vikings got in 2012. The Cardinals would fall short by over 200 points in terms of value in a similar deal. A trade involving the fourth-overall pick plus Cardinals’ third- (No. 66), fourth- (No. 104 overall), and fifth-round (37) picks would bring them just 17 points short in value to the No. 3 overall pick.
The Rich Hill trade value chart, a revised version of the Johnson chart, suggests that the Patriots would receive more value from the Cardinals if they used the 2012 trade as a guideline, gaining 28 points in value.
2013 NFL Draft
The Dolphins made a splash to get edge rusher Dion Jordan in the 2013 NFL Draft, moving up from the No. 12 pick to the No. 3 overall pick. In order to move up, the Dolphins also gave the Raiders their second-round pick (No. 42) in that year’s draft.
The Broncos hold the No. 12 overall pick in this year’s draft and are also in need of a quarterback, releasing Russell Wilson earlier in March. But a pair of other trades in recent draft history would suggest that a package similar to the 2013 deal wouldn’t be enough for the Broncos to move up to No. 3, especially if they’re targeting a quarterback.
In terms of the trade value charts, the Broncos could trade all of their picks in this year’s draft to the Patriots and they would still fall short in value as they don’t have a second-round pick. While the trade value charts don’t account for future picks, some believe that a future pick has the same value as the last pick in the round of the current year’s draft. So, a 2025 first-round pick would equal to the No. 32 overall pick in this year’s draft.
Using that line of thinking, the Patriots receiving the No. 12 overall pick plus two future firsts and a 2024 third-round pick from the Broncos would give New England nearly 400 extra points in value using Johnson’s trade chart. If you used Hill’s trade chart, the Patriots would gain nearly 300 extra points in value.
2018 NFL Draft
This is one of the two trades that are most applicable to this year’s draft. In search of a franchise quarterback, the Jets moved up from the No. 6 overall pick to the No. 3 overall pick in 2018, giving the Colts two second-round picks in that year’s draft (No. 37 and No. 49 overall) and a 2019 second-round pick.
The other New York team holds the sixth-overall pick in this year’s draft, and just like the Jets in 2018, the Giants also seem to be in the market for a quarterback. They signed Drew Lock earlier in the week as they might be looking to cut ties with Daniel Jones soon.
If the Giants don’t want to take any risks at the quarterback spot, a trade up would make sense. However, they traded their second-round pick earlier in the week in order to obtain Panthers star edge rusher Brian Burns in a trade, moving the 39th overall pick as part of the deal.
The Giants still hold a second-round pick though in this year’s draft, carrying the 47th overall pick as part of previous trade with the Seahawks.
Ahead of the NFL combine, NFL Network lead draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said that the Giants would likely have to give up three second-round picks to move from the sixth spot to the third spot. Using the draft value charts, the Patriots would gain at least a couple of hundred points in value in such a deal. But that seems to be the tax in order to trade up and draft a quarterback.
2023 NFL Draft
The Texans pulled off a stunning trade on Draft Day last year. Right after selecting CJ Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick, the Texans used the No. 12 overall pick as part of a deal to get the No. 3 overall pick from the Cardinals. In addition to giving up the No. 12 overall pick, Houston also gave up its second-round pick (No. 33) and its 2024 first- and third-round picks while also getting back Arizona’s 2023 fourth-round pick (No. 104).
Using the trade value charts to try and find a similar deal in this year’s draft is a little bit difficult because the Broncos and other teams picking in that range don’t hold a second-round pick as high as the Texans did last year. As mentioned earlier, the Broncos don’t have their second-round pick. Neither do the Vikings, who hold the 11th pick in the draft, as they traded their second-round pick in order to get the 23rd overall pick on Friday.
On top of that, the Texans made the trade to get edge rusher Will Anderson and not a quarterback. So, despite this trade happening just last year, it might not really serve as much of a guideline for a possible deal involving the third overall pick in this year’s draft.
2021 NFL Draft
The 49ers’ trade to draft Trey Lance might be the baseline of what the Patriots are looking for in a possible trade down from the No. 3 overall pick, at least if they’re moving out of the top 10.
A month before draft night, the 49ers gave up the No. 12 overall pick plus their first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 along with their 2022 third-round pick to get the No. 3 overall pick from the Dolphins.
With three quarterback-needy teams holding the 11th, 12th, and 13th picks (Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders, respectively), it isn’t crazy to think that the Patriots could get a similar offer for the No. 3 overall pick.
If those three teams were to offer a similar deal that the 49ers gave the Dolphins in 2021, the Vikings would probably have the edge. On top of holding the higher pick between the three teams, Minnesota is the only one that can offer a second first-round pick in this year’s draft, which holds more value on trade value chats than a future first-round pick.
In the event that the Vikings offered both of their first-round picks in this year’s draft plus first- and third-round picks in 2025, the Patriots would gain over 500 points in value in the Johnson chart and over 300 points in value in the Hill chart. While that might seem lopsided, the Dolphins gained over a couple hundred points in value in both charts in their trade with the 49ers in 2021.
It should also be noted that the Dolphins traded up from the No. 12 overall pick to the No. 6 overall pick right after making that trade, giving up their fourth-round pick plus a 2022 first-round pick in order to do so. If the Patriots want a quarterback but aren’t in love with whoever falls to them at No. 3, it’s possible that scenario could play out.
Another possible applicable trade
In 2016, the Eagles moved up from the eighth overall pick to the second overall pick in order to get Carson Wentz. To make the deal happen, they also gave the Browns their third- and fourth-round picks in that year’s draft plus their 2017 first-round pick and their 2018 second-round pick.
The Falcons, who just signed Cousins, don’t necessarily need to draft a quarterback this year. However, he’s set to turn 36 in August and is coming off an Achilles tear as the Falcons can easily get out of his contract after two seasons if things go south.
If the Falcons want to groom a top quarterback prospect while Cousins plays, the Patriots could ask for a similar trade package that the Browns got in 2016. If so, the Patriots would gain over a couple hundred points in value on both trade charts, which could be a little too rich for the Falcons.
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