How the Patriots can secure the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft in Week 18
There are a few scenarios in which the Patriots can land the No. 2 overall pick. One of them is easy, but the other two are a bit more complicated.
The Patriots were eliminated from playoff contention several weeks ago, but there is something on the line when they take on the Jets in their regular-season finale.
Entering Week 18, the Patriots are in a three-way tie with the Cardinals and Commanders for the league’s second-worst record, which means they’re in play to get the No. 2 overall pick. The Panthers clinched the league’s worst record last week, so the Bears (who received the Panthers’ 2024 first-round pick in a trade last offseason) hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
If the Patriots want the chance to land one of the top two quarterback prospects in the draft, they’ll likely need the No. 2 pick in order to do so. There is a simple way for them to get the No. 2 overall pick – they lose and the Commanders win.
But that would require the Jets upsetting the Patriots on the road and the Commanders pulling off a major upset over the Cowboys, who will become NFC East champs with a win on Sunday.
If you’re wondering about the Cardinals, the Patriots don’t need them to lose in order to secure the No. 2 overall pick. The first tiebreaker goes to the team with the easier strength of schedule, which the Patriots (.518) hold by an insurmountable amount over the Cardinals (.562) entering Week 18.
The Patriots, though, slightly trail the Commanders for the lesser strength of schedule, with Washington’s strength of schedule being just .003 points weaker (.515).
So, if both the Patriots and Commanders lose on Sunday, the No. 2 overall pick will be determined by a handful of other games in the NFL over the weekend. The game with the biggest implication is the Falcons-Saints game, as the Patriots faced the Saints and the Commanders faced the Falcons earlier this season.
A Saints loss would greatly benefit the Patriots, but they would still need other things to happen. The Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Colts, Bears-Packers, and Broncos-Raiders games also come into play. Wins from just two of the Ravens, Texans, Bears, and Broncos plus a Falcons win would give the Patriots the No. 2 overall pick.
If the Saints beat the Falcons, the Patriots’ path to getting the No. 2 overall pick becomes a lot slimmer. They would need all four of the Ravens, Texans, Bears, and Broncos to win in Week 18. If that were to happen, both teams would finish with a .520 strength of schedule, which would trigger the second tiebreaker: head-to-head. Because the Patriots lost to the Commanders in Week 9, they hold the advantage in that tiebreaker.
There’s an even more complicated scenario for the Patriots to receive the No. 2 overall pick. Of the three teams with five wins, the Giants are the only team ahead of the Patriots in the strength of schedule tiebreaker, holding a .511 strength of schedule this season.
In the incredibly slim scenario that the Patriots and Commanders win plus the Giants lose to the Eagles and the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, New England would need wins from Atlanta, Baltimore, and Houston to get the No. 2 overall pick. The Patriots wouldn’t need to worry about results from the Broncos-Raiders game because they faced both teams while the Commanders only played the Broncos and the Giants went against the Raiders earlier in the season. New England wouldn’t need to worry about the result in the Chicago-Green Bay game, either.
If the favorites in the Patriots’, Commanders’, Cardinals’, and Giants’ games all win on Sunday, New England could drop from holding the No. 3 overall pick to holding the fifth-overall pick. However, if two of the Ravens, Texans, Packers, and Raiders won in this scenario, the Patriots would get the fourth overall pick. The Patriots will also guarantee a spot in the top four picks of the draft if the Cardinals win on Sunday.
While there are two other teams that have five wins, it appears to be a near certainty that the Patriots will hold a top-five pick. ESPN’s FPI gives the Patriots a 99.9 percent chance of holding a top-five pick, likely because the Chargers (.526) and Titans (.529) don’t have a path to closing the gap on the Patriots for having a lesser strength of schedule.
There are a lot of moving parts to be figured out at the top of the NFL standings in Week 18 to determine the playoff picture. There are just as many moving parts at the bottom of the standings to try and figure out the draft order, too.
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