Here’s where the Patriots’ first-round pick in 2024 NFL Draft stands entering final week of regular season
The Arizona Cardinals helped New England move up a spot on Sunday.
The Patriots might have lost on Sunday, but they were able to improve their standing in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Following Sunday’s loss to the Bills, the Patriots hold the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, moving up a spot from where they were entering Week 17.
For those who want to see the Patriots obtain the highest possible draft pick, you can thank the Cardinals for helping them move up a spot on Sunday. The Cardinals’ upset win over the Eagles on Sunday gave them their fourth victory of the year, moving the Patriots and Commanders into a three-way tie with them for the second-worst record in the NFL.
So, with the Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals all at 4-12, the strength of schedule tiebreaker currently determines which teams hold the No. 2-4 overall picks. Washington’s strength of schedule (.515) is just a bit worse than New England’s (.518), giving it the advantage for the No. 2 overall pick. The Patriots’ strength of schedule is markedly worse than the Cardinals (.562), giving it a clear edge for the No. 3 overall pick.
With the Panthers losing on Sunday, Carolina clinched the worst record in the NFL for the 2023 season. So, the best possible pick the Patriots can get is the No. 2 overall pick.
The easiest way for the Patriots to get the No. 2 overall pick is if they lose to the Jets while the Cardinals beat the Seahawks and the Commanders beat the Cowboys. Of the two teams they’re tied with though, the Patriots are the only one to open up as favorites for their Week 18 game.
If the Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals all lose in Week 18, the No. 2 overall pick will likely be determined by other games due to strength-of-schedule. Because the Cardinals’ strength of schedule is notably superior, the No. 2 overall pick would likely come down to the Patriots and Commanders.
In that scenario, the Patriots’ best path to getting strength-of-schedule help would be if the Texans, Bears, Broncos, Ravens, and Falcons won in Week 18.
Of course, the Patriots could also beat the Jets in Week 18, which would likely cause them to fall back in the drafter order. There are currently three teams (Giants, Chargers, Titans) with five wins, meaning the worst pick the Patriots could end up with is the No. 7 overall pick.
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