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Could Russell Wilson join the Patriots? Weighing pros and cons of an offseason blockbuster
If New England can't land a blue-chip QB in the 2024 NFL Draft, it might focus on free-agent targets.
After two seasons with the Broncos, Russell Wilson could find himself as the big fish on the free-agent market in the coming months.
Denver made the call earlier this week to bench Wilson for their final two games of the 2023 season, with the former Super Bowl champion now expected to be cut in March, per The Athletic’s Dianna Russini.
The Broncos’ decision to bench their starting QB is motivated by Wilson’s sizable contract and the potential ramifications if he was to get injured during ether of the team’s final two games this season.
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Wilson is guaranteed $39 million for the upcoming 2024 campaign. He also has $37 million in injury guarantees that become fully guaranteed if he is still on the roster on the fifth day of the 2024 league year that begins in March.
As such, the writing is on the wall that the Broncos will cut ties with Wilson at some point in March in order to avoid some of that guaranteed money landing on their books.
But if Wilson does hit the open market, where will the nine-time Pro Bowler land?
On Thursday, The Athletic listed four possible landing spots for Wilson: The Raiders, Commanders, Vikings … and Patriots.
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At first glance, New England diverting its focus to an aging QB like Wilson might seem like an about-face amid a 2023 season where most of the focus has been fixated on landing a blue-chip QB in the upcoming NFL Draft.
But with New England’s recent 2-2 stretch under Bailey Zappe hampering the team’s hopes of a top-three pick in April, could Wilson end up being a viable option in Foxborough?
Let’s go through the pros and cons of the Patriots actually landing Wilson in free agency.
PRO: Patriots might be better off using first-round pick elsewhere to fix offense
Let’s face it, we’re probably not even rolling through this exercise if New England was still in line to pick first or second overall in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft.
If the Patriots were in a position to select either USC’s Caleb Williams or UNC’s Drake Maye, Bill Belichick (or whoever is running the show in Foxborough in 2024) would have a potential franchise QB to build around in the years ahead.
But with New England now projected to select fourth overall, the writing seems to be on the wall that both Williams and Maye are out of the Patriots’ grasp. The case can also be made that New England could miss out on LSU QB Jayden Daniels if he goes off the board third overall.
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There’s also no guarantee that the Patriots end the year in a top-five spot on the draft leaderboard — especially if they post another win against either the Bills or Jets over the next two weekends.
If New England loses out on Williams/Maye/Daniels and doesn’t plan on relinquishing future assets to try and trade up to select one of that QB trio, the better play might be for the Patriots to use that coveted first-round pick to shore up another key vacancy on offense.
Whether it be a potential left tackle for the future like Notre Dame’s Joe Alt or Penn State’s Olumuyiwa Fashanu — or a potential No. 1 wideout like Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. or LSU’s Malik Nabers — the Patriots could still significantly upgrade an area of need while searching for a veteran free-agent QB to jolt a listless offense.
It may not be the ideal scenario for a New England team looking to rebuild, but the Patriots have to make the most of the hand they’ve dealt after picking up two wins in their last three weeks.
PRO: Wilson might be the best free-agent option if New England takes that route
If New England is forced to look on the free-agent market for help under center, Wilson might be the best option available.
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Even though his best days are likely behind him, Wilson actually put together a strong season in Denver before getting banished to the bench.
Wilson threw for 3,070 yards with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season, with his completion percentage ranking 10th in the NFL.
Other potential free-agent targets for the Patriots include Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins and Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield. Granted, there’s also a chance that both QBs ultimately re-sign with their current squads.
Even if Cousins is an appealing option if he does go to market, the 35-year-old is also coming off of a season-ending Achilles injury.
Other free-agent options for New England include Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew, Sam Darnold, Marcus Mariota, and Tyrod Taylor. Not exactly the cream of the crop, at least as a viable QB1.
Rather than shell out a significant portion of their $73 million in available cap space (per OverTheCap.com) on a player like Cousins, New England could target Wilson for what could be a cheaper price tag.
Considering that Wilson is already guaranteed $39 million from the Broncos in 2024, he might be willing to sign for an affordable deal with whatever team he eventually lands with.
Moving forward with a 35-year-old QB may not be the best path moving forward, but Wilson is potentially the best available option if New England does chart such a course this offseason.
CON: New England would be settling for short-term gains
Yes, the case can be made that the 2024 Patriots would be far improved with a season of Wilson running things.
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Wilson alone should be able to bolster New England’s offense, with that unit further lifted by a blue-chip prospect like Harrison Jr. or Alt — as well as another potential signing or two in free agency.
And if New England’s defense continues to play as it did this season (with the returns of Christian Gonzalez and Matt Judon looming large), the 2024 Patriots could be in line for a bounce-back season.
That’s all well and good. But what about 2025? 2026?
At this point, Robert Kraft and the Patriots fanbase are desperate for some hope on the horizon — even if it’s just in the form of a spirited playoff push next winter.
But as New England tries to right the ship and carve out a new identity during the post-Brady era, settling on a 36-year-old QB isn’t exactly the most sustainable path moving forward.
Yes, the 2024 Patriots could surprise many next season, but they’re also not going to be viable contenders — even if Wilson thrives and other additions make immediate impacts.
And if New England enters 2025 with a stout defense, promising pieces on offense … and no quarterback? They’re pretty much back at square one.
New England could roll the dice and target a QB later in the 2024 Draft like a Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, or J.J. McCarthy and incorporate them into the system while letting Wilson run the show next season.
If Williams/Maye/Daniels are out of the equation, New England might have to settle for this succession plan.
CON: Wilson could be in line for another decline
Yes, Wilson was in the midst of a solid season in Denver before getting benched earlier this week. Even if he’s no longer the elite top-five QB he was during his days in Seattle, plenty of teams could put together a winning season with a 2023 Wilson at the helm.
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But there’s also no guarantee that an aging veteran like Wilson can continue to hold steady as an above-average QB in 2024 and beyond.
As encouraging as this 2023 season was for Wilson, his first foray in Denver was nothing short of a disaster — with the QB only throwing 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions over 15 games.
If New England once again neglects to add weapons this offseason through either free agency or the draft, you can make a compelling argument that no free-agent QB will be able to fully right the ship of a Patriots offense severely lacking in terms of playmakers.
Yes, a 35-year-old Wilson might offer higher upside than Bailey Zappe. But as Father Time continues to sap away Wilson’s mobility and pocket passing, just how far could that gap be if Wilson declines in 2024?
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