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How did Patriots’ win over Broncos impact their 2024 draft odds?
The Patriots' odds of drafting either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye took a major hit on Sunday.
The good news? The Patriots left Denver with an impressive over the Broncos on Christmas Eve, with Bailey Zappe orchestrating a second-half surge for New England and rookie kicker Chad Ryland redeeming himself with a game-winning, 56-yard field goal.
The bad news? Despite the short-term gains made by the 2023 Patriots roster on Sunday, that comeback win over the Broncos might have severely hampered the franchise’s plans of landing a blue-chip quarterback in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft in April.
Despite entering Christmas Eve with the projected No. 2 pick thanks to its 3-11 record, New England’s win in Denver and multiple losses from several other cellar-dwelling teams across the NFL now has the Patriots projected to pick No. 4 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.
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If the current draft leaderboard stands, New England is likely out of the running to select a coveted quarterback prospect like USC’s Caleb Williams or UNC’s Drake Maye, while that No. 3 overall pick could secure an impact offensive threat like Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. or LSU QB Jayden Daniels.
While New England left Empower Field at Mile High with a win on Sunday, the Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, and Washington Commanders all lost over the weekend — with both Arizona and Washington leapfrogging the Patriots on the draft leaderboard.
Here’s a look at how the current 2024 NFL Draft leaderboard shakes out, per Tankathon.
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1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers, 2-13)
2. Arizona Cardinals, 3-12
3. Washington Commanders, 4-11
4. New England Patriots, 4-11
5. New York Giants, 5-10
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-10
7. Tennessee Titans, 5-10
8. Chicago Bears, 6-9
9. New York Jets, 6-9
10. Atlanta Falcons, 7-8
Even though the Patriots and Commanders are technically tied with the same 4-11 record, Washington holds the slight edge due to strength of schedule (SOS). The first tiebreaker for draft order is SOS, with the team holding the weaker strength of schedule handed the higher pick.
Washington (.518) has a razor-thin advantage over New England (.522), putting the Commanders in that coveted top-three spot.
New England can possibly move back into a top-three position if it drops its final two games against the Bills and Jets, but it will need the Commanders and Cardinals to land back in the win column.
That might be a tough ask for two lackluster rosters in Arizona and Washington, especially given their Week 17 and 18 matchups.
The Cardinals will wrap up their schedule with games against the Eagles and Seahawks, while Washington hosts both the 49ers and Cowboys.
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