What Patriots need to happen in Week 16 to improve chances of getting No. 1 overall or top-two pick in 2024 NFL Draft
The Patriots need a handful of things outside of their control to happen if they want to move into pole position for the No. 1 overall pick.
As the holiday season is here, some Patriots fans are hoping that their team is gifted the No. 1 overall pick or a top-two selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, likely giving them the right to draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
The Patriots are in pole position to land the No. 2 overall pick entering Week 16, already putting them in a good spot to end up holding a top-two pick. While they’re just one loss behind the Panthers (who owe their pick to the Bears) for the worst record in the league, the Patriots are currently tied with the Cardinals for the second-worst record in the NFL.
So, let’s take a look at how the Patriots can improve their chances at getting the No. 1 overall pick or a top-two pick this weekend.
How can the Patriots can improve their chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick in Week 16?
Of course, the Patriots still need the Panthers to win at least one more game if they want a chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The Panthers host the 6-8 Packers on Sunday, looking to get back-to-back wins as they host a Green Bay team that has lost two in a row.
If the Patriots lose and the Panthers win Sunday, some other things would need to happen for New England to move into pole position for the No. 1 overall pick. Strength of schedule is the top tiebreaker used to determine draft order, with the team holding the lesser strength of schedule winning the tiebreaker.
As of Saturday, the Panthers hold a slight edge over the Patriots in terms of having a worse strength of schedule. Carolina’s opponents have a .517 winning percentage this season while New England’s opponents have a .519 winning percentage in 2023. Both teams actually benefitted from the Saints’ loss to the Rams on Thursday, but the Panthers were helped just a little more because they faced New Orleans twice this season.
So, needing to lose and needing the Panthers to pick up a win, the Patriots need the teams they’ve faced this season to lose just a little bit more than the teams the Panthers have faced this season. There are only two common, non-divisional opponents between both teams (the Colts and Cowboys), so whatever they do is a wash.
So, it’d benefit the Patriots’ strength of schedule to have the Steelers lose to the Bengals, the Bills lose to the Chargers, the Jets lose to the Commanders, and the Dolphins lose to the Cowboys this weekend. On the flip side, the Falcons beating the Colts, the Texans beating the Browns, the Bears beating the Cardinals, and the Buccaneers beating the Jaguars, would improve the Panthers’ strength of schedule, helping the Patriots.
How can the Patriots improve their chances of getting a top-two pick this weekend?
One of the results that would benefit the Patriots in the strength of schedule race with the Panthers would actually hurt their chances of securing a top-two pick sooner.
Obviously, the Cardinals losing to the Bears on Sunday would mean they’d still have an identical record with the Patriots if New England also lost this weekend.
If the Cardinals were to beat the Bears though, the Patriots could be on the precipice of locking up a top-two pick. Arizona has one of the toughest strength of schedules in the league this season at .569, making it nearly impossible for it to catch New England for a lesser strength of schedule.
Beyond the Cardinals, a Commanders win would help the Patriots in both their pursuit of the No. 1 pick and securing a top-two pick. The Commanders are the lone team in the league with four wins and they currently have a slight advantage in strength of schedule (.515) over the Patriots.
If the Commanders and Cardinals both lose on Sunday, the Patriots could still secure a top-four pick this weekend. But they would need the Giants, Chargers, and Titans all to win.
What are the Patriots’ odds to land the No. 1 overall pick entering Week 16?
The Patriots still have an outside chance to land the No. 1 overall pick, according to ESPN’s FPI. The system gives New England a 13 percent chance to wind up with the No. 1 overall pick, giving Carolina an 81.6 percent chance of finishing with the worst record.
Still, the Patriots hold a good shot at landing a top pick. In addition to having the second-best chance to get the No. 1 overall pick, the Patriots also have a 98.1 percent chance of getting a top-five pick as ESPN’s FPI projects them to hold the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
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