The Broncos have something to play for on Sunday, but for Patriots it’s time to focus on future
The Patriots are out of the running for the playoffs, but can play spoiler on Sunday night in Denver.
Welcome to Season 12, Episode 15 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious yet lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup . . .
The Patriots are eight games below .500 with three to play. They are one of six teams to be eliminated from playoff contention, having achieved that lowly designation in Week 14.
This game has meaning to coach Sean Payton and the Broncos, who are 7-7 and in the thick of the wild-card hunt after an 0-3 start that included a 70-20 pasting by the Dolphins in Week 3.
But the Patriots? The mantra long ago, at least for fans already anticipating the talent to be available at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft, turned from Do Your Job to Play Well and With Pride, But Lose, Please.
With the current state of the Patriots in mind, it’s logical to be pondering the future right now, even with those three games left.
So let me ask you this question before we dive into this week’s matchup:
Which current Patriots will play an important role on the franchise’s next contending team?
It’s not a long list. Defensive lineman Christian Barmore, who has played like an All-Pro the past six weeks or so, is an obvious cornerstone, as is injured rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
Offensive lineman Michael Onwenu and Kyle Dugger could be, though both are free agents after this season. (The Patriots should try to retain both, and also ought to lock up injured receiver Kendrick Bourne.)
Jabrill Peppers has been a Lawyer Milloy-like force this season at age 28, but it’s hard to say whether he will still be playing at the same level when the Patriots are winners again. Cornerback Jonathan Jones has been a model Patriot, but he’s 30. Matthew Judon has missed most of this season with an injury, and he’ll be 32 before next season’s opener. How long can he play at a high level?
Marcus Jones may never be a starting cornerback, but he’s a dynamic athlete and his absence this year in all three phases has been overlooked. I’d include him as a keeper. Let’s count Keion White, too.
Offensively, there’s … not much. Onwenu, running back Rhamondre Stevenson (if he can avoid being folded and spindled), and undersized rookie receiver Demario Douglas should have staying power. Hunter Henry is a pending free agent who deserves better. Perhaps a couple of the younger linemen will emerge. This much is certain: The draft capital must be spent on offense this time around, whether Bill Belichick is here or not.
As for quarterback Bailey Zappe, who makes his third start of the season, against the Broncos, he’s made a case — with two strong first halves and two subpar second halves to his credit — he can be a competent backup. That’s progress for a guy who was cut in training camp. But it’s nowhere near a solution for what this team needs.
Anyway, 14 down, three more to go. And then the Patriots can go about beginning their repairs.
Kick it off, Ryland, and let’s get this one started . . .
Three players to watch other than the quarterbacks
Ja’Whaun Bentley: It’s possible he still will be among the significant contributors to the defense when they are a legitimate playoff contender again. He’s just 27 years old — is it his throwback style of play that makes him seem older? — and he signed a two-year extension this summer that carries through the 2025 season, with just $9 million fully guaranteed. So he should have some staying power.
But it’s also worth acknowledging how reliable he is right now, and has been for a few seasons. Bentley is second on the Patriots in tackles with 89, one behind fellow linebacker Jahlani Tavai and one ahead of Dugger. With 11 more tackles, Bentley would reach 100 tackles for the third straight season, becoming the first Patriot since Jerod Mayo to have at least three consecutive 100-tackle seasons. (Mayo did it three straight years from 2008-10.)
The Patriots’ defense has held opponents to less than 3 yards per carry in six games this season, including last Sunday when the Chiefs had just 43 yards on 20 attempts (2.2 per carry). Their run defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing 84.9 rushing yards per game, trailing only the Bears (79.8). The bruising Bentley has played a major role in the success against the run, and they should thrive again against a mediocre Broncos rushing attack (14th in the NFL, 112.7 yards per game, led by Javonte Williams, who has 677 yards but just a 3.7 per-carry average and one touchdown).
Jerry Jeudy: The former first-round pick from Alabama is by no means the Broncos’ best receiver. That designation belongs to sixth-year veteran Courtland Sutton, who has hauled in 10 receiving touchdowns, including seven in the past nine games, while totaling 58 receptions for 770 yards this season. But Jeudy may be of more interest to Patriots followers, if only because his name recurred in the offseason as someone they should try to acquire to bolster their own passing attack.
Jeudy has provided decent production, with 45 catches for 581 yards and a touchdown. But there have been multiple games where he had an opportunity to make an important play and did not come through, including two weeks ago against the Chargers, when he could not come up with two deep Russell Wilson passes and also had a touchdown overturned when it was determined he failed to get both feet down in the end zone. Jeudy finished that game with just two catches for 16 yards.
He bounced back somewhat with three receptions (on seven targets) for 74 yards last week against the Lions. But to watch him this season opposite the tough Sutton leads to the conclusion that he would not have been the solution for the Patriots, either.
Patrick Surtain II: The best player on the field Sunday might not have his name called often. Such is the life of a true lockdown cornerback. Surtain, the No. 9 pick in the 2021 draft, six spots before the Patriots ended up with his Crimson Tide teammate Mac Jones, has just one interception and 10 passes defensed this season, three of the latter coming in the season opener against the Raiders. The reason is obvious: Offenses avoid throwing in his direction at all costs. The NFL Network’s Steve Smith recently compared him with Hall of Famers Champ Bailey and Darrelle Revis and called him a “troublemaker for a wide receiver.” The Patriots, with their undermanned and uninspiring passing offense (26th, 186.9 yards per game), don’t have a receiver that can make Surtain’s day even remotely challenging. Still, it wouldn’t be a shock if he somehow ended up with his second interception of the season given Zappe’s issues seeing the field.
Grievance of the week
Hey, know what would be a nice development this week? If the Patriots can advance past the first play of the game without committing a special teams penalty or blunder. In the loss to the Chiefs, Jalen Reagor, who has shown some promise as a return man if not as a receiver, took the opening kickoff 46 yards to the Patriots’ 49. But Brenden Schooler’s holding penalty sent the Patriots from midfield back to their 23 to start the possession. The penalty was Schooler’s fifth of the season, and it’s fair to wonder whether he has the discipline or demeanor to stick around as their next special teams ace. The special teams remain sloppy in general, and it would count as progress if they can get through an entire game without a missed field goal, a bad snap, a shanked punt, or a knuckleheaded holding call. For all of Bill Belichick’s emphasis on special teams through the years, it’s starting to feel like a long time since they were a reliable Patriots strength.
The flashback
It’s fair to assume that most of the games we’ll look back on in this space will have resulted in Patriots victories. After all, what fun is reminiscing about a loss?
Not much fun at all most of the time, right? But once in a while, there are reminders in those defeats of what made the team or a particular player great, and those reminders are always welcome.
The 2015 AFC Championship is one of those games. The Broncos beat the Patriots, 20-18. But I’ve always thought of it as one of the most admirable performances of Tom Brady’s career, and Rob Gronkowski’s too, for that matter.
The Broncos’ defense — which led the NFL with 52 sacks that season, three more than the second-place Patriots — pummeled Brady relentlessly. He was sacked four times and endured 17 quarterback hits from a Broncos defensive line that included Hall of Famer DeMarcus Ware, likely future Hall of Famer Von Miller, as well as quality players such as Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson.
They were talented enough to wreak havoc without any additional help. But it was later revealed that Patriots center Bryan Stork was tipping the snap by lifting his head a split second before hiking the ball to Brady, essentially giving the Broncos defenders a green light to attack.
The result was perhaps the most consistently vicious beating Brady took from a defense in his entire career. And yet he nearly found a way to steal the game.
Facing fourth and 10 from midfield with a minute and 34 seconds left, he hit Gronkowski down the seam in double-coverage with a beautiful throw and over-the-shoulder-catch to the Denver 10. With 17 seconds left and facing fourth and goal from the Denver 4, Brady hit Gronkowski again, this time with a dart in the back of the end zone, cutting the Broncos lead to 20-18.
The Patriots couldn’t quite finish the comeback, with Brady throwing incomplete to Julian Edelman on the 2-point conversion attempt, failing to see an open Gronkowski in the end zone. It was a tough loss to take, especially after Peyton Manning and the Broncos beat the Panthers in the Super Bowl, 24-10. But looking back now? Man, Brady and the Patriots never gave up the fight that day. It stands now as one of their most commendable defeats.
Prediction, or please come to Denver with the snowfall …
Tell me the Patriots will be able to run the ball and I’ll tell you if they have a chance. Ezekiel Elliott had a rough game in the loss to the Chiefs, gaining just 25 yards on 11 carries. Like Stevenson, he’s now dealing with an ankle injury, so second-year back Kevin Harris, who had an 18-yard touchdown run against Kansas City in his season debut, could get by far his heaviest workload as a pro. The Patriots’ running game ranks 25th in the NFL at 98.4 yards per game. Theoretically, the Patriots could perk up against a Broncos run defense that ranks last (146.9 yards allowed per game), but that statistic is skewed by the 350 rushing yards the Dolphins dropped on them in Week 3 and New England’s offensive line is battered. The Patriots will hang around because of their sturdy defense, but they don’t have the offensive personnel to do anything more than that. Broncos 18, Patriots 13.
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