What experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Broncos game
There aren't many who think that the Patriots will puff off a Christmas miracle.
There’s a scene in “Die Hard” (released in July of 1988, therefore, NOT a Christmas movie), when Sgt. Al Powell encounters the dirty doorman at the Nakatomi Plaza. The shifty terrorist tries to get rid of the police presence by kicking back and watching a basketball game, presumably the Lakers, and whines that he has “50 bucks on those @##%&^%.”
It’s not going well for the doorman. But wait until he sees what’s in store for him anyway.
Now, granted, there is a list of unrealistic turns to come in that film, least of which is believing a corporation would host its company Christmas party on Christmas Eve. But that scene in Nakatomi’s lobby always struck me as odd. Who’s playing sports on Christmas Eve anyway?
Which brings us here.
NFL Network did its best to pump Sunday’s “Holiday Classic” between the Patriots and Broncos in Denver during last Saturday’s slate of games, but there’s nothing the holiday wants with it, and there’s little “classic” about it. Other than that, it’s an intriguing game. Each team has its share of off-field drama that I am sure NFL Network crews will get deep into.
But there’s something to be said about the NFL’s ability to hold its audience hostage, even on Christmas Eve. Can Bailey Zappe do his best John McClane and Yippy-ki-yay the three-win Patriots to a win in Denver? Or, will Russell Wilson and the Broncos treat them like Hans Gruber did Harry Ellis?
(My deepest apologies.)
This week’s predictions:
Globe staff: Four of six pick the Patriots (+7.5)
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Broncos 17, Patriots 10. “Could be a prime-time stinker on Sunday night. Sean Payton yelled at Russell Wilson on sideline last week but defense is Denver’s bigger problem — especially against the run. Expect Bill Belichick to pound the ground, with Pats hoping to have RB Rhamondre Stevenson back from injury. Broncos are (barely) alive in playoff chase and must win. New England is 5-15 in past 20 trips to Denver and don’t see that trend ending here.”
Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Broncos 24, Patriots 17. “The Patriots are playing well on defense but their offense is a non-starter. The Broncos are playing well on defense, and they’re at home, but a lot rides on Russell Wilson and football protection.”
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Broncos 24, Patriots 10. “The Patriots are playing out the string, while the Broncos are still pushing for a playoff spot. The Denver defense played horribly against the Lions last week, but being back home for a Christmas Eve game will get them back playing well. It helps the New England offense isn’t very good. Broncos take it.”
ESPN staff: All Broncos.
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots (+6.5). “It might not be enough for the Patriots to win, but it’ll be close enough to force everyone in New England to stay tuned until 11:20 p.m. on Christmas Eve.”
Frank Schwab, Yahoo! Sports: Patriots (+6.5). “The Broncos still aren’t a great team. I respect them getting back in the playoff race after a 1-5 start, but just about every win was a close call. In some metrics, like net yards per play, the Patriots have been better on the road than at home this season. I don’t love taking New England but neither side is enticing.”
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Patriots (+6.5).
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Broncos 20, Patriots 13. “The Patriots got their big win over the Steelers out of the way for who seems like a lame-duck Bill Belichick. Along with Pittsburgh and last week’s opponent, Kansas City, Belichick’s team has had high-profile battles with Denver in the past (see Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning is big spots). New England is hanging in there defensively and will no doubt trying to join every other team trying to attack the Broncos with the running game and tight end. But the Broncos also can play nasty defense at home vs. a lesser passing game.”
Bill Bender, Sporting News: Broncos 20, Patriots 17. “Will this be the last Bill Belichick vs. Sean Payton matchup? Denver has won its last four home games – and despite a blowout loss last week – remains in the AFC playoff hunt. The Patriots are reduced to a spoiler role here. New England is 2-4 S/U and averages 16 points per game on the road.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Broncos 23, Patriots 17. “The Christmas Eve captive audience might feel like hostages during this one.”
Chris Simms, Pro Football Talk: Broncos 17, Patriots 13.
It says here: Broncos 19, Patriots 6. “And when Alexander saw the breadth of his domain, he wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer.” — Hans Gruber.
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