How did the Patriots’ loss to the Chiefs change their draft odds?

A win for the Panthers on Sunday has New England still on the prowl for the No. 1 overall pick in 2024.

The Patriots are currently projected to pick second overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Danielle Parhizkaran / The Boston Globe

By Conor Ryan

December 17, 2023

2 minutes to read

After a surprise win on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec. 7, the 2023 Patriots came crashing back down to Earth on Sunday afternoon.

Despite another trademark strong start for Bailey Zappe and Co., New England ran out of steam as the minutes continued to tick off the clock in its matinee matchup against the Chiefs.

Along with taking several costly penalties, the Patriots generated just 57 total yards of offense in the second half en route to a 27-17 loss against Kansas City.

It was another sobering loss for a Patriots team still stuck at the bottom of the AFC standings at 3-11.

But with most Patriots fans fixated on the future these days, Sunday’s results offered up more good news for a New England franchise in desperate need of a blue-chip talent.

Thanks to that defeat against Kansas City and the Arizona Cardinals’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday evening, New England currently holds steady with the projected No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, per Tankathon.

As a result, the Patriots remain in prime position to select a prized QB prospect like USC’s Caleb Williams or UNC’s Drake Maye in April.

Even though New England and Arizona both hold the same record at 3-11, the Patriots technically hold the slight edge over the Cardinals in the draft leaderboard, due to strength of schedule (SOS). The SOS metric serves as a tiebreaker to determine the draft order for teams with identical records.

The team with the weaker strength of schedule will hold the higher pick, with New England (.523) holding the edge over the Cardinals (.556).

However, strength of schedule is dynamic and can change with each week, depending on the performances of each team faced this year over the final month of the 2023 season.

Landing at least one of Williams or Maye could potentially net New England a foundational franchise QB capable of reviving this stagnant offense. But there stands a chance that the Patriots can pick between the two signal-callers if it lands the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft.

Even though the Bears (who hold the Carolina Panthers’ first-round pick) have held court with the projected first-overall selection for most of the 2023 season, 2-12 Carolina reeled off an upset win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon.

Thanks to the Panthers’ win and New England’s loss to Kansas City, the Patriots just sit one game behind Carolina (Chicago) for that first-overall pick.

With New England already booted from playoff contention, there’s little left to play for over these final three games of the 2023 season for a weary Patriots locker room.

But for a downtrodden Patriots fanbase looking for some silver linings amid a season of misery, three more losses could put New England in position to sit atop the draft leaderboard next spring.