Do the Patriots find themselves in position to flex on the Chiefs?
The Patriots are coming off a 21-18 victory over the Steelers and the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs look like they may have some cracks in their foundation.
Welcome to Season 12, Episode 14 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious yet lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup . . .
In late November, the NFL took the unprecedented step of flexing a game — this weeks’ Patriots-Chiefs matchup — off “Monday Night Football.” The reason was obvious, and for those with workspaces within the offices of Gillette Stadium, embarrassing: the Patriots were too lousy to foist upon a national television audience.
A couple of weeks later, it’s too bad the league couldn’t reverse the ol’ flex, because suddenly this one is interesting. The Patriots are coming off a 21-18 victory over the Steelers in which Bailey Zappe, in his second start after Bill Belichick got bored of Mac Jones’s near-weekly benching, threw three first-half touchown passes.
Meanwhile, the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs look like they may have some cracks in their foundation. They’ve already lost two more games than they did a season ago, and they’re coming off a frustrating defeat to the Bills in which superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes whined like a high school kid who had lost driving privileges after the officials correctly called an offsides penalty on receiver Kadarius Toney, wiping out what would have been a spectacular go-ahead touchdown.
Make no mistake, the Patriots still have plenty of flaws that cannot be repaired until the offseason. And the Chiefs remain a viable Super Bowl contender, even if Mahomes’s corps of wide receivers is suddenly reminiscent of the 2006 Patriots.
But this one is, at the very least, interesting. Who would have thought as much a couple of weeks ago?
Kick it off, Ryland, and let’s get this one started . . .
Three players to watch other than the quarterbacks
Travis Kelce: Mahomes’s sore-sport ranting after the loss to the Bills was weird and out of character given that he’s been a model superstar during his career, but there was one thing that he said that was actually thoughtful.
Mahomes lamented that Kelce’s strike of a lateral to Toney for what would have been the go-ahead touchdown isn’t an official play, because it would have been a cool thing to show at the tight end’s Hall of Fame ceremony someday.
“That’s a Hall of Fame tight end making a Hall of Fame play that won’t be shown because we threw a flag for an offensive offside,” Mahomes said. “So it takes away from not only this game, and this season, but from a legendary career.”
Now, they’ll probably show it anyway, but it won’t carry the same weight. What isn’t up for debate is that Kelce is such a Hall of Fame lock that he wouldn’t be presumptuous if he went to get fitted for a mustard-colored jacket now. He has 894 receptions — trailing only Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates among tight ends all-time — for 11,240 yards and 72 touchdowns in his career.
It’s a longshot that he will catch Gonzalez for the all-time receptions lead at the position (1,325) or Gates in touchdowns (116), but he has an outside shot at Gonzalez’s yardage record (15,127), and could have an argument when his career is over that he’s the second-best tight end of all-time behind Rob Gronkowski, who actually blocked.
At age 34, he’s more famous than ever thanks to his making the acquaintance of superstar (and Gillette Stadium legend) Taylor Swift, and he remains worthy of unyielding attention on the field. Kelce, who has 80 receptions for 896 yards and 5 touchdowns, is Mahomes’s lone trusted receiving option, though rookie Rashee Rice (59-663-6) continues to improve.
Perhaps it’s not surprising, given Bill Belichick’s knack for shutting down the opposition’s best skill player, but Kelce has mostly been held in check in five regular-season games against the Patriots, totaling 28 catches for 330 yards and just one touchdown in those matchups. He’s actually been even less productive in the playoffs against the Patriots, with just nine catches for 46 yards and a touchdown in two games.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: The receiver produced by far his best game of the season Thursday against one of his former teams, the Steelers, with whom he played the first five seasons of his career. Smith-Schuster caught four passes for 90 yards — 39 more than his previous season high from Week 9 against the Commanders. The four receptions included an acrobatic 37-yard grab in the game’s opening minute and a 28-yarder in the second quarter that was immediately followed by a Hunter Henry touchdown.
Smith-Schuster is facing off against the other of his former teams Sunday — he spent last season with the Chiefs and delivered a respectable stat line of 78 receptions, 933 yards, and 3 touchdowns for the champs. In the Super Bowl, he supplied seven catches for 54 yards, and drew a crucial (if questionable) third-down holding penalty on the Eagles’ James Bradberry with the score tied at 35 and less than two minutes remaining, setting up Harrison Butker’s winning field goal. Chiefs fans should remember Smith-Schuster well.
Patriots fans, meanwhile, hadn’t seen that version of him until Thursday. He’s appeared quicker lately, leading to a presumption that his surgically-repaired knee is feeling better, and it’s hardly out of the question that he plays a second straight strong game against one of his former employers. Should he do so, it might be time to start thinking about him as a potential receiver for next season.
It should be noted the Patriots could be getting reinforcements back at receiver, including exciting rookie Demario Douglas, who returned to practice this week after missing the previous two games while in concussion protocol. Douglas has 36 receptions for 410 yards in 10 games, and needs just 110 yards over the final four games to set a new standard for rookie receivers in the Belichick era. If you knew that Aaron Dobson (519 receiving yards in 2013) currently owns that record, your memory of his time here is much more positive than mine.
Chris Jones: The Chiefs’ four-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle and pass-rushing menace is having a typically strong season, albeit a bit of an uneven one by his usual standards.
After missing the opener due to a contract dispute, he signed a one-year deal, returned in Week 2, and promptly collected at least one sack in each of the first five games he played. He leads the Chiefs’ sixth-ranked defense (299.9 yards per game) in quarterback hits (20) and tackles for a loss (9), but trails George Karlaftis III in sacks, 9 to 5.5. This could be the first time since 2017 that someone other than Jones leads the Chiefs in sacks.
The Chiefs’ defense — which allows just 17.5 points per game, third-best in the league — has been much better than anticipated. It is particularly strong against the pass (185.0 yards per game, sixth-best in the league), and the return of versatile linebacker Nick Bolton has given it a boost. If Jones can snap out of his mini-slump against a Patriots’ offensive line that has plugged its leaks lately, Zappe could be in for a long day.
Grievance of the week
As someone who picked him as a Player To Watch before two different games in which he didn’t actually play, I’m qualified to say that the hype around Malik Cunningham, in retrospect, was a bit much.
Cunningham caught Patriots fans’ attention by dazzling on a late touchdown drive in the preseason opener versus the Texans, but in the one game the undrafted former Louisville quarterback played for the Patriots, he did not register a run, pass, or catch in six snaps against the Raiders. It’s fair to presume the Patriots coaching staff, which was attempting to convert him to wide receiver, did not believe he was ready to contribute.
Which is fine. They were probably right. But it’s too bad that any possibility of him contributing in the future will now come with the Ravens rather than the Patriots. Baltimore plucked Cunningham off the Patriots’ practice squad Tuesday, adding him to their active roster as a quarterback despite already having three on the roster, including former MVP Lamar Jackson.
Allowing that to happen is awfully close to inexcusable. Cunningham may be raw, but his athleticism pops, and judging by the social-media reaction of more than a dozen teammates Tuesday to losing him, he was both popular and respected in the locker room, which is a heightened status compared to most practice-squad types who haven’t done a thing in the league yet..
The Patriots have little to play for this season but pride. They should have prioritized keeping a promising but unfinished player like Cunningham over several veterans filling out the back of the roster. It’s a tribute to his potential that the playoff-bound Ravens found a spot for him. It’s one more mark against the Patriots’ approach to team-building that they didn’t.
The flashback
Remember the Patriots’ 37-31 overtime victory over the Chiefs in the 2018 AFC Championship Game? What a silly question, right? Of course you do.
The Patriots led 14-0 at halftime. Mahomes put on a Superman cape in the second half (probably borrowed one from Tom Brady’s locker) and led the Chiefs to 31 points after the break, including 24 in the fourth quarter. Rex Burkhead’s touchdown run put the Patriots ahead with 39 seconds left in regulation. Harrison Butker’s field goal tied it with eight seconds left. Burkhead’s second touchdown won it in overtime.
A classic, in an instant.
And yet . . . for most franchises, this would be a surefire top-three all-time moment, a victory to be retold and rehashed and marveled at, and retold and rehashed and marveled at yet again.
For the dynasty Patriots? It’s probably in the top 10. Probably. It’s got to be behind the two Super Bowl victories over the Rams, the comeback from down 28-3 against the Falcons, “Malcolm, go!” against the Seahawks, the Snow Bowl, the comeback against the Ravens in 2014 . . . I mean, there are some options. We haven’t even mentioned the Super Bowl wins over the Eagles and Panthers, or anything involving tormenting Payton Manning.
It’s a nice reminder, I think, that as Patriots fans navigate these down times, there are dozens of thrilling victories, some remembered better than others, just waiting to be revisited.
Prediction, or are we sure Steve DeBerg isn’t Mahomes’s backup? . . .
For the Patriots to have a chance to pull off the upset, several things must happen. Bailey Zappe needs to protect the ball and have at least a few series where he plays as well as he did in the first half against the Steelers. Ezekiel Elliott, who tends to run better the more he is utilized, needs a heavy workload against the Chiefs’ uninspiring run defense, which ranks 20th in the league (114.9 yards per game).
The Patriots’ excellent run defense (third in the league, 88.2 yards per game) needs to lock down Isiah Pacheco if he returns from a shoulder injury, and the ineffective Clyde Edwards-Helaire if he doesn’t. Belichick and the Patriots coaches need to cook up yet another game plan to slow Kelce. And it would really help if another Chiefs receiver or two lines up offsides on occasion.
Is that too much to ask? Well, it is a lot. But we’ve been saying for weeks that the best outcome for the Patriots each week is to play well and hard and united, and lose for the sake of the draft. Over the final four weeks, hopefully it’s a feeling they will know all too well. Chiefs 24, Patriots 20.
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