What fantasy football experts have to say about the Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson-Ezekiel Elliott backfield
Elliott is still seen as a good short yardage running back, potentially limiting Stevenson's fantasy upside.
The projected fantasy football outlook for running back Rhamondre Stevenson became a little cloudier following the Monday report that the Patriots are signing Ezekiel Elliott to a one-year deal.
Elliott, who appeared to confirm the news on social media, immediately changes the dynamic in the Patriots backfield with his presence. The question looming over fantasy managers is exactly how much this affects Stevenson’s role?
While it will be difficult to fully discern what the playing time split between the two New England running backs will be, fantasy analysts have already weighed in, offering a certain level of insight based on the specific players as well as usual Patriots trends.
What this means for Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott, 28, is expected to be utilized in short yardage situations, where — despite his statistical decline in other areas over the previous seasons — he remains among the NFL elite.
“Elliott converted 56.3 percent of his rushes from inside the five-yard line into touchdowns, which was good for the fourth-best touchdown rate among running backs in the same area of the field,” wrote NBC Sports’ Zachary Krueger.
In his final season with Dallas, Elliott missed two games with injury, but still finished with more carries and an almost identical snap count as fellow Cowboys back Tony Pollard. He is not expected to achieve the same level of usage in New England, however, instead fitting into the changeup role previously held by Patriots running back Damien Harris (who left in the offseason for the Bills).
This likely means Elliott is no longer a reliable fantasy starter.
“That might allow him some standalone flex value at times, but Elliott’s days of being a weekly starter in the fantasy football space are clearly in the rearview mirror,” predicted Sports Illustrated’s Michael Fabiano. “In fact, he’s now likely more of a late-round option as a higher-end No. 4 runner.”
What this means for Rhamondre Stevenson
Previously, Stevenson held an overall fantasy football average draft position (ADP) in the mid-20s, as he was expected to handle a vast majority of the workload for the Patriots as both a runner and receiver.
With Elliott in the mix, his fantasy status will take a slight hit.
“He was a fringe RB1 in my rankings before this, but I’m dropping him down to RB17 after this news,” wrote Chris Towers of CBS Sports.
“You’re going to see a lot of Stevenson, of course, but you’re going to see some Zeke, who is still very effective,” fantasy expert Matthew Berry explained in his reaction to the Elliott report. “In terms of fantasy, I think you’re going to see Zeke vulture a number of touchdowns from Rhamondre Stevenson.”
That said, most analysts still have a widely favorable view of Stevenson heading into 2023.
“Zeke will be a thorn in the side of Stevenson’s overall touchdown upside, but Stevenson remains far and away the best back on the team,” Krueger wrote. “On a points-per-touch basis, he ranked 11th among qualified running backs at 0.90 points per touch and was third in yards after contact per attempt (3.81).”
Stevenson, according to Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life, is “still a good late [round three] to early [round four] pick.”
What this means for other backfields in the NFL
An interesting dynamic of Elliott signing with the Patriots is the effect it has elsewhere, with one of the more prized veteran free agent running backs off the table.
Prior to the report of his agreement with the Patriots, Elliott was linked to a possible return to Dallas. Given that this is no longer happening, Pollard is seen as a fantasy beneficiary.
“The biggest winner of Ezekiel Elliott’s decision to sign with the Patriots, as reported by numerous outlets Monday? Probably Tony Pollard,” said Towers.
Berry also noted this dynamic, predicting that Pollard, Joe Mixon in Cincinnati, James Conner in Arizona, and whichever running back emerges to win the starting job with the Dolphins are all situations that are “sneaky fantasy winners” from the Elliott news.
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