What experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Dolphins game
The Patriots are favored at home with Tua Tagovailoa out for the Dolphins, but that isn't stopping some experts from predicting an upset.
Are you rooting for the playoffs?
As mind-boggling as it might seem, the New England Patriots are still alive for a spot in the NFL’s postseason despite looking more like a Victor Kiam product for the bulk of the season rather than one under the eye of the Kraft Family. The 7-8 Pats are tied for last place in the AFC East (ahead of the Jets based on head-to-head), losers of two in a row, and, yet, control their own destiny.
Win this weekend against Miami and next weekend against Buffalo, and, somehow, these Pats are in.
It’s the last thing Patriot fans should want.
A trip to the playoffs gives head coach Bill Belichick and his ragtag group of wayward coordinators validation for the season. A postseason berth allows Belichick to present the jobs Matt Patricia and Joe Judge did this season to Bob and Jonathan. It let him tell them, “see?”
Making the playoffs decreases the odds that a complete rehab of the coaching staff will happen during the offseason.
And why? To get crushed by the Chiefs?
The best thing for the Patriots to do to end this season would be to lose out and finish with a 7-10 record. That might get the attention it needs in Foxborough.
Making the playoffs is a step on the ladder of NFL success. These Patriots don’t deserve to be there in the least.
This week’s predictions:
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 23, Dolphins 20. “Two staggering old rivals meet on New Year’s Day with playoff stakes big, and hopes teetering. Miami clinches a postseason berth with a win and a loss by the Jets later Sunday. New England must win and still require some outside help. Both arrive in bad form. Miami has lost four in a row in an 0-for-December swoon and now expects Teddy Bridgewater to start at QB with Tua Tagovailoa enduing another concussion. The Patriots are on a 1-4 skid, including consecutive losses on embarrassing late miscues such as you would never have expected of Bill Belichick teams. Miami was cast from small favorite to underdog with Tua’s injury. No result here would surprise, but for me Pats at home is the safer play. Fins have lost 10 of their past 14 trips to Foxborough, Massachusetts, in December or later. And Pats’ opportunistic defense — an NFL-leading six defensive touchdowns — looms as a rugged test for a rusty Bridgewater.”
Globe staff: Four of six pick New England (-3).
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20. “The winner of this game will control its playoff fate, making this an enormous game for both. The Dolphins have lost four straight, while the Patriots have lost two tough ones the past two weeks. Both offenses have issues lately, and Miami will almost certainly be without Tua Tagovailoa because of a concussion. Teddy Bridgewater will start. That matters. The Patriots will win it.”
CBS Sports staff: Six of eight pick the Pats (-2.5).
ESPN staff: Pats across the board.
Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Dolphins 21, Patriots 17. “Miami handled the Patriots pretty easily in the opener but a lot has changed since, including having lost four in a row, and it appears Teddy Bridgewater will be behind center. Yet, defense is the difference.”
Jimmy Kempski, PhillyVoice: Dolphins (+3). “At one time the Dolphins were 8-3 and looking like potential Super Bowl contenders. However, they have lost four straight, and their chances of even making the playoffs at all are in jeopardy. Tua Tagovailoa is out with his third concussion of the season, and Teddy Bridgewater will get the start. The Patri*ts, meanwhile, are a mess themselves. They’ve lost four of five, and have been one of the worst-coached teams in the NFL this season. I’ll take the Dolphins and the points.
Frank Schwab, Yahoo! Sports: Miami (+2.5). “For all of the negativity about the New England Patriots, and most of it regarding the offense has been fully earned, they are still alive for a playoff berth. They’ll need to win out and get help. The Patriots are a 2.5-point favorite at BetMGM and I’m going to have some blind faith in the Dolphins to play well and cover the spread. Miami will rally around Bridgewater. We’ll see if that’s enough this time.”
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Dolphins (+3). “There’s a chance that Bill Belichick will cook up a special game plan, and the Patriots will roll to a double-digit win. But there’s really no reason to trust this New England team, and I think Miami can still move the ball with Bridgewater.”
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Patriots 27, Dolphins 24. “The Dolphins have lost four consecutive games. The Patriots are on a two-game skid. Miami is still holding on to an AFC wild-card spot, while New England may need to settle for more spoiler mode. Tua Tagovailoa is struggling and Bill Belichick will be scheming his pass defense to force him into more key mistakes. The Patriots will build on the strong second half vs. the Bengals to even the season series.”
Bill Bender, The Sporting News: Patriots 27, Dolphins 24. “The winner controls their own destiny in the AFC Wild Card race. The Dolphins are 3-5 on the road and in the midst of a four-game losing streak. The Patriots are 3-4 at home and have lost four of five games. Miami won the first meeting 20-7 in Week 1 and has a chance to win five in a row in the series. Bill Belichick gets in the way.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 23, Dolphins 17. “No Tua? Big problem for the Miami offense.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 20, Dolphins 16. “If Tua Tagovailoa were 100 percent healthy, I’d pick the Dolphins. But Tua likely out, I see the Patriots winning this and keeping their playoff hopes alive.”
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots, 67 percent (-5).
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Dolphins 24, Patriots 17. “These Patriots have been listlessly, sloppily waiting for someone to put them out of their misery. Enter the Dolphins on a four-game losing streak, starting their backup quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater, with a far better scheme and more talent around him, still figures to be more comfortable than Mac Jones. New England’s defense just doesn’t have the speed or physicality in the back end to survive Miami’s dynamic receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.”
NFL Pickwatch: Sixty-eight percent Patriots (-150).
It says here: Patriots 17, Dolphins 13. Because how better for this frustrating season to wind down than with the promise of an additional game of futility in January.
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