What experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Jets game
The Patriots are slight favorites to beat the 5-2 Jets on the road.
Mac Jones is going to be the starting quarterback this weekend when the New England Patriots take on the New York Jets. He was last week too.
Except, he really wasn’t.
The most concerning factor to come out of Jones’s putrid performance against the Chicago Bears Monday night isn’t that the spoiled crowd at Gillette Stadium booed him off the field. It’s not that Jones added to his ghastly interception numbers this season. It isn’t even that frightening that the Bears — of all teams — found a cure for the Bailey Zappe fever gripping New England.
Indeed, the scariest question to arise out of that whole mess Monday night concerns head coach Bill Belichick’s fingerprints. Belichick’s reasoning for the decision to pull Jones after only three series sounded like something he was making up as he was going along. “That was the plan?” If that was the plan, then I don’t have to be the one to tell you that the plan sucked.
The possibility that the Patriots could be ruining Jones’s talent with offensive rookies Matt Patricia and Joe Judge running the show has never been more real. Judge is cited as one of the many reasons why Daniel Jones never flourished with the Giants. Patricia might have set the Lions back a few years during his short stint in Detroit. Which is, you know, saying something for a franchise that is constantly setting itself back.
Alas, Jones is going to get the start Sunday, even if Patricia and Judge may be more in tune with how the rookie Zappe follows their every command. The question is, how long does Jones get this time? Does he get pulled after the first interception? The first pick-six? At the first sign of miscommunication with the men in charge?
It should all get better against the Jets. It always has.
It won’t though.
This week’s predictions:
David Hill, New York Times: Jets (+2.5). “For the Patriots, Bailey Zappe stepped into Mac Jones’s starting spot after Jones threw six passes and an interception in a loss to the Bears on Monday night. Zappe put together back-to-back electric touchdown drives to close the half, but in the second half threw two interceptions of his own. Bill Belichick named Jones the starter this week, but New England needs work before laying points on the road.”
NJ.com staff: Everyone likes New York. Jets beat writer Andy Vasquez writes, “This game is going to be decided by one thing: how well the Jets establish the run. It’s not easy to deal with a Bill Belichick defense that is geared to shut down a specific facet — even if the Patriots’ defense, is ranked in the bottom third in rushing yards per game (136.7) and per carry (4.88) — and it will be even harder without Breece Hall. But, as weird as it is to say, the Jets are the more talented team and it will show on Sunday.”
Globe staff: Split.
Tony Massarotti, 98.5 The Sports Hub: Jets (+1.5). “So this is what it comes down to: Pats at Jets, the season potentially on the line. An exaggeration? Maybe so. Maybe not. But if Bill Belichick and Co. lose to New York this week, the Patriots will be 3-5 and in a seeming spin, which is no place to be during any football season, especially with the Patriots’ schedule about to intensify. So which way will this go? Felger likes the Pats to rebound after last week, which is certainly possible. Murray likes the Jets big – “Please add that I think the Patriots will get killed,” he wrote – and I happen to believe the game will be close and relatively low-scoring. So I guess I have the deciding vote. I’m going J-E-T-S Jets in a nail biter.”
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Jets 24, Patriots 20. “The Patriots are playing on a short week and played awful in losing to the Bears on Monday night. The Jets are back home after winning two road games. But they have suffered some big injuries, including to rookie running back Breece Hall. That will matter down the road, but not here. The Jets defense will limit the Pats offense, no matter who plays quarterback. The Jets keep rolling.”
CBS Sports staff: Six of seven pick New England (-2.5).
Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Jets 27, Patriots 24. “Jets fans are already delirious over the team’s 5-2 start. Imagine their reaction if the Jets beat Bill Belichick, something they haven’t done in their past 12 meetings. The Jets have won four in a row. The Patriots aren’t sure who should be the quarterback.”
ESPN staff: Four of seven pick the Patriots
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Jets (+2.5). “I said what I needed to say in a tweet, so why say it again?”
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Jets (+2.5). “The Patri*ts are better than the Jets? Is that what I’m being told by this line? Based on what?”
USA Today staff: Split.
Frank Schwab, Yahoo! Sports: Patriots (-2.5). “This is a Bill Belichick special. The entire world is burying the Patriots after a bad loss on Monday night. I’ve seen this movie before. The Patriots aren’t a bad team. The Jets aren’t bad either, but Breece Hall was such a big part of their offense. With Hall done for the season, I don’t know that I want to back Zach Wilson against Belichick this week.”
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Patriots (-2.5). “I like both defenses. It’ll likely be a low-scoring game, but I trust Mac Jones to make more plays than Zach Wilson.”
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Patriots 17, Jets 13. “The Patriots have found their winning formula again with a heavy dose of defense and the running game. The Jets have copycatted that for Zach Wilson, but they are facing a bigger challenge there with rookie Breece Hall going down for the season. New England will avoid New York’s pass defense playmakers well while Belichick thwarts Wilson again.”
Bill Bender, The Sporting News: Patriots 23, Jets 21. “Breece Hall’s season-ending injury changes the tenor of the Jets’ offense around Zach Wilson. It’s on Michael Carter to keep that going against the Patriots, who have mastered the bend-but-don’t-break routine. The Patriots have a quarterback question with Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones, and they better stop the run this time unlike the Monday Night Football loss to the Bears.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 17, Jets 14. “Just when it feels like the Patriots are falling apart, they find a way to pull it together.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Jets 14, Patriots 13. “The Jets are playing better than anyone expected, and their defense should do well against the struggling Patriots offense that still hasn’t identified its starting quarterback.”
FiveThirtyEight: Jets, 56 percent (-1.5).
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Patriots 17, Jets 14. “Bill Belichick’s teams usually play their best against the Jets, against struggling quarterbacks and after devastating losses. That all works in their favor this week, but Belichick has never dealt with a self-created quarterback mess quite like this one. Mac Jones gives the Patriots the highest ceiling and the team’s apparent vote of confidence in him should help, especially against this rugged New York pass rush. Still, the losses of Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker further deplete an offense struggling to find anything that works. Expect a lot of defense.”
NFL Pickwatch: Fifty-five percent Jets (+115).
It says here: Jets 25, Patriots 17. Get comfortable with being in last place.
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