Did the Patriots find their identity in last week’s shutout? We may find out Sunday against the Browns.
This game will be a battle of ball control. The Browns have the preeminent rushing offense in the league, and a cautious, caretaker quarterback in Jacoby Brissett.
Welcome to Season 11, Episode 6 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious yet lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup …
The best-case scenario for the Patriots entering this season looked something like this: Mac Jones takes a significant leap forward from his promising rookie season, and the Patriots improve on their 10-7 regular-season record and win a playoff round.
That would have been real, linear progress. But I’m starting to wonder if what is happening now is, while certainly not by design, something close to the next best thing. The Patriots faced adversity in winning one of their first four games, but they put up an encouraging fight in losing to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in overtime two weeks ago, then possibly found a ball-control/stout-defense identity in shutting out the Lions, whose points-per-game average dropped from 35 to 28 after the Patriots humiliated them.
Oh, and the Patriots found that identity with poised third-string rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe playing well enough to put at least a little pressure on Jones as he recovers from a high ankle sprain. You know Bill Belichick loves that.
We should have a better sense for whether the Patriots really have found something after Sunday’s game. They beat the Lions by running the ball — Rhamondre Stevenson was a one-man backfield after Damien Harris went down with a hamstring injury, and he dazzled, running 25 times for 161 yards, both career highs.
Stevenson’s breakthrough last season came against the Browns — he ran for 100 yards for the first time and scored a pair of touchdowns in the Patriots’ 45-7 rout — and he should thrive again Sunday against a Cleveland defense that permits 138.2 yards per game on the ground (28th in the league) and gave up 173 yards on just 16 carries to the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler.
This game will be a battle of ball control. The Browns have the preeminent rushing offense in the league, and a cautious, caretaker quarterback in Jacoby Brissett, who as a Patriots rookie six seasons ago found himself in a very similar situation to the one Zappe is in now.
The Patriots know what the Browns, whose three losses have come by a total of 6 points, will try to do. What they’re about to find out is if last week’s feel-good performance can carry over.
Kick it off, Bailey, and let’s get this thing started …
Three players to watch other than the quarterbacks
Jack Jones: We knew that the safety position, with Kyle Dugger, Devin McCourty, and Adrian Phillips playing prominent roles with complementary skills, was one of the Patriots’ strengths entering the season. That has only been enhanced by Dugger’s emergence as an All-Pro-caliber offense-wrecker. There were far more questions about their collaborators in the defensive backfield, the cornerbacks, especially after ballhawk J.C. Jackson got $40 million guaranteed in free agency to join the Chargers.
Instead, save for a couple of hiccups against the Dolphins and Ravens, the Patriots’ cornerbacks have been perhaps the most pleasant surprise on the roster among position groups. Reasons for that? Jonathan Jones has played on the outside like it’s been his gig his entire career, Jalen Mills has been steady when healthy, and, more than anything else, Jack Jones has picked up right where Jackson left off as the designated super-confident ballhawk.
Jones pulled off a pick-6 on Rodgers two weeks ago at Lambeau Field, and that wasn’t even his most impressive interception over the past two games. Last Sunday, on the Lions’ second possession, Jones had the instincts/knowledge to abandon his coverage responsibility and head over to help out on tight end T.J. Hockenson. But Jones didn’t just read the play right. He made a spectacular athletic play when he got there, leaping to high-point Jared Goff’s pass, then tapping his toes inbounds like a veteran wide receiver with an advanced degree in sideline footwork.
Jones will face a challenge if he’s matched up with savvy route runner Amari Cooper (27 catches, 304 yards, 3 touchdowns), but the rookie fourth-round pick has been up for every one he has faced so far.
Nick Chubb: All right, here’s a vow. I will mention right here, with the usual befuddlement, that the Patriots took Sony Michel, Chubb’s backfield partner at the University of Georgia, with the No. 31 pick in the 2018 draft, four picks before the Browns snagged Chubb — and then I’ll never mention it again.
But man, it’s hard not to play a what-if game here. Sure, Michel had his moments for the Patriots, particularly during the run to the Super Bowl his rookie season, and I know he had an explosiveness at Georgia that for some reason didn’t accompany him to Foxborough … but have you seen Chubb? Had he ended up with the Patriots, he would have produced like 2004 Corey Dillon.
In the Patriots’ rout of the Browns in Week 10 last season, the Patriots were fortunate that both Chubb and Kareem Hunt missed the game because of injuries. The Browns’ leading rusher was D’Ernest Johnson, who somehow ran for 99 yards in a 38-point loss.
Chubb has been phenomenal this season, leading the NFL in rushing yards (593) and rushing touchdowns (7) while averaging 6.1 yards per carry for the league’s top rushing offense (192.4 yards per game).
The Patriots held the Lions to a meager 101 rushing yards last week, but their run defense is rated just 22nd in the NFL (128.8 yards per game). Ja’Whaun Bentley, Davon Godchaux, and Christian Barmore combined for 14 tackles against the Lions. They’ll have to be even more stout against Chubb and Hunt, as will the Patriots’ perimeter defenders against their frequent stretch and wide zone runs.
Myles Garrett: The Browns list their two-time All-Pro as the left defensive end on their depth chart, but he has primarily been lining up on the right side. That is probably a good thing for the Patriots given that a matchup with left tackle Trent Brown is far less concerning than one with right tackle Isaiah Wynn, who has committed a league-high seven penalties and whose spotty pass blocking has left Patriots quarterbacks vulnerable to costly sacks and the threat of injury.
Garrett, who leads the Browns with three sacks, had just one tackle last week against the Chargers after missing the previous game because of shoulder and biceps injuries suffered in a car accident, but he did play 58 of 71 snaps.
It should be noted that the Patriots, with Wynn at left tackle and thus his most frequent matchup, did a fine job neutralizing Garrett last season. He did have one sack — Wynn missed his block — but no other tackles, and the Patriots figured out how to benefit from his aggressiveness a couple of times, including a well-designed 20-yard connection from Mac Jones to Brandon Bolden after Garrett prematurely left his area. We’ll see if Matt Patricia can cook up something similar.
Grievance of the week
This isn’t a grievance of the week so much as it’s one of permanent disgust at the Browns franchise. Owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam hit new lows of rationalization in explaining their decision to trade for quarterback Deshaun Watson and lavish him with one of the most ridiculous contracts in league history.
Watson, who did not play last season while facing more than two dozen accusations of lewd and coercive behavior during massage appointments, settled 23 of 24 civil suits, with a 25th dropping her case because of privacy concerns. Watson is an outstanding quarterback, however, and that happens to be something the Browns traditionally lack, so they took the opportunity to acquire him from the Texans in June.
That part can be justified. What cannot is the decision to award him a fully guaranteed$230 million contract when has shown no remorse for his behavior, then topping it off with the particularly cynical ploy of paying him the minimum for a player of his service time and stature, thus minimizing how much money he loses during his 11-game suspension to start this season.
Jimmy Haslam justified it by saying people deserve second chances. Some might say this is Watson’s 26th chance, at a minimum.
The Browns have not won a playoff game since Bill Belichick topped Bill Parcells and the Patriots in the 1994 wild-card round. They are often lousy in entertaining ways, but not evil ones until now. As long as the Haslams and Watson are in cahoots, the Browns deserve to be lousy forevermore.
Prediction, or Tim Couch would have been great if he’d stayed healthy, I swear …
It would be silly to think this matchup will be at all similar to last season’s blowout. Chubb didn’t play. Worse, Baker Mayfield did.
But as abysmal and poorly coached as the Lions are, I can’t help but believe the Patriots found something tangible last Sunday. Patricia appears to be getting the hang of this offensive play-caller gig. The defense, with Dugger and Matthew Judon playing with relentless ferocity, is percolating with confidence. Belichick seems happy, and that’s usually a tell-tale sign that he likes something about his team that we haven’t discovered yet.
Speaking of Belichick, a win Sunday will move him into a tie with George Halas for the second-most in professional football history, playoffs included, at 324. So he could tie Halas this week against the Browns, the franchise that fired him and bolted for Baltimore after the 1995 season, and surpass him next week against the Bears, a franchise Halas founded as the Decatur Staleys before moving to Chicago. That’s the kind of historical symmetry that Belichick will not let slip. Patriots 29, Browns 20.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com