Breaking down the Patriots’ offseason with PFF cap expert Brad Spielberger
How concerned should fans be about the Patriots "losing" the 2022 offseason?
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As the rest of the AFC seems to get better on paper by the day, the New England Patriots have largely been content to let the market play out and focus more on retaining familiar names than bringing in new ones — with the exception of J.C. Jackson, Ted Karras and Shaq Mason, of course.
The result: an offseason that has seen more barbs thrown at Bill Belichick and the Patriots for not doing more to maximize Mac Jones’s crucial second season in New England. The analytics haven’t been kind either, showing the team has lost more on-field value than almost any other squad in the league so far this offseason.
Also, with more big-name quarterbacks flooding the AFC, the Patriots’ playoff path isn’t getting any easier.
How much of a problem is that for Belichick and his crew? Boston.com posed that question and several others to Pro Football Focus salary cap expert Brad Spielberger, who has kept a close eye on the NFL free agency period across the league.
Here are highlights from the interview, lightly edited for clarity.
What’s your preliminary grade for the Patriots’ offseason so far?
I think I would put it like right at an average, like a C or a C+.
Winning free agency doesn’t mean you’re going to win games come September. And they’ve obviously they’ve known that for the last 20 years. It’s kind of why I was shocked by what they did last offseason. Obviously, I think they were trying to capitalize on some value signings because of the financial landscape and because they had a ton of cash and cap space and not a lot of other teams did. But at the same time, you know, the big-ticket signings they made, I would say were fine. None of them were spectacular. None of them completely overhauled the complexion of this roster.
But I think standing pat is fine. Letting Mac Jones know, “Look, our offseason is you growing. Our offseason is you getting better and making the rest of the roster matter less.”
Has the AFC East and the rest of the conference started to leave the Patriots behind based on this offseason?
I mean, the conference is obviously getting much better, and I’ve liked the offseasons for the rest of the teams in the AFC East. Miami, if they sign Terron Armstead (the Dolphins have since signed Armstead to a five-year deal) that obviously is a game changer, but they have not really done a whole lot. The Jets, I’ve like their moves, but I still think they’re a year away. They kind of need to hit on both of their top-10 picks, and those guys maybe don’t make an immediate impact.
The Patriots’ path in their division to do the same thing as last year, where it’s them and the Bills down to the wire duking it out — one gets the division, one gets a wild card — I still think it’s very much on the table. But their schedule is not doing them any favors.
The Shaq Mason trade caught a lot of people by surprise. What do you make of it?
For me, that’s obviously the biggest thing they’ve done this offseason. If he gets extended before the season begins, that would be a signal to me he had gone to the team and said, “I want a new contract. I deserve a new contract” — which he does — but they were not comfortable, with two years left on his deal, extending a guard at near top-of-market and said, we’ll just get a draft pick instead.
If he doesn’t get extended, then I’m not really sure what they were thinking on that trade.
On that note, they seem to be really reluctant to pay top dollar for anyone this offseason. What does that say about their confidence in what they already have on the roster?
I think they do believe in their ability to develop talent and also their ability to put players in a position to succeed. They’re a club that generally brings guys in that maybe weren’t successful in other places or maybe weren’t being deployed in a manner they were comfortable with. They bring them in and find a role for them, even if it’s a super niche role.
I think it makes sense they believe in themselves. In that way, they need to draft a little bit better. I do think they’ve had a couple of better drafts the last couple of years after a slow stretch for a while. Going back to discussing Shaq Mason, they have Michael Onwenu, sixth-round pick, they’ve played him at every spot on the offensive line. They could probably start him at right guard, and he would be close to, in their minds, at least as good as Shaq Mason on a dirt-cheap contract. That’s how they think and how they view things, and that’s why they were able to sustain a 20-year dynasty.
Do you think the Patriots just prefer players to come to them versus going to get players themselves?
I think that’s very real, and maybe there’s a little bit of fault in that if you’re thinking you can still get guys on discounts like the way you were able to with Tom Brady. You’re still the New England Patriots. You still have Bill Belichick. You’re still probably going to win like 10 games a year. So there is still that draw, but it’s not like people view it as, “I can chase the ring with the GOAT” every offseason.
But I also think in their minds as well, they’re taking guys for whom money is not their first priority…a guy that is more interested in winning football games and getting better as a player in growing and learning and doing things differently and all that. Like Matthew Judon coming off a franchise tag that was worth about $17 million and signing for $13.4 million per year on a long-term deal. He could’ve gone like the Yannick Ngakoue route and signed like a two-year deal to try to get back on the market quicker. I’m not saying it like he doesn’t love football, but I think they want guys that are like, “I want to get paid for what I do because I deserve to get paid for what I do. But my love of football comes before that as long as I’m getting paid enough.” And I think that’s a different type of player.
If you had to guess, which players out there do you think feel like future Patriots?
I’m looking at the cornerback spot, and there are a lot of guys still available. I could even see — even though his time didn’t end very well in Minnesota — but a guy like Bashaud Breeland, a super-cheap one-year flier that I think could have a great year in New England. I know New England played more zone last year and kind of mixed things up, but I think he’s a good fit.
I don’t think it’s going to be a notable name. I think they are in the bargain bin looking for guys like that.
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