What NFL experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Jaguars game

Hey. Remember the Super Bowl?

It wasn’t so long ago that Patriot fans were easily lured into the thought that a trip to Los Angeles might be a possibility. New England had the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and the most-likely matchup, according to whatever statistical breakdown you wanted to believe, even boiled down to the Patriots and Buccaneers, a Super Bowl matchup that would have NBC executives putting the word “overkill” to good use.

Then, reality sort of set in.

Compared so favorably to the 2001 Patriots, it turns out the 2021 team may more resemble Kyle Van Noy’s “boogeymen” in 2019. That was a team that feasted on weak competition for the bulk of the season, until, that is, the games became more significant later in the year. Then it folded faster than an attentive Gap employee.

And so, as doubts creep in, the Patriots have one more chance at home to try and seal their way into the playoffs with a win over the horrid Jaguars. Then, Miami looms in a regular-season finale that has bred nerves since the very beginning of the 2021 campaign.

Maybe the Colts and Bills were a pair of bumps in the road coming off the bye. Maybe the Patriots have a chance to re-write their postseason chances. Maybe the Patriots are the team we’ve watched much of this season instead of the one breeding new questions when it matters most.

Big game in Miami next weekend. Oh, look. The Jaguars too, I guess.

This week’s predictions:

Florida Times-Union staff: Everyone picks the Pats. Writes Garry Smits, “The Jags have got to be demoralized, disheartened and now decimated by injuries and the league’s COVID-19 protocols. At this point, one has to wonder if it’s not smart to shut Trevor Lawrence down, rather than let him operate behind a line that will look like the second half of the third preseason games.”

Globe staff: Five out of six (Jim McBride) pick New England (-16).

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 31, Jaguars 7. “The Jaguars are a complete disaster, and now they are playing consecutive road games against a Bill Belichick team that is coming off a home loss. Good luck with that. The Patriots will get back on track here with a defensive showing that will force Trevor Lawrence into some turnovers. This will be ugly.”

Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots (-15.5). “If the Patriots don’t win this game by 25 points, they might as well close up shop for the season.”

Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots (-15.5). “I’ll never see Jaguars-Patri*ts and not think of Doug Marrone taking a knee with 55 seconds left in the first half of the AFC Championship Game instead of trying to score more points.”

Frank Schwab, Yahoo! Sports: Patriots (-15.5). “Trevor Lawrence hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in a game since Week 1. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown in four straight games and seven of the last eight. That’s 273 attempts over eight games with one passing touchdown. I’m sure it’ll get a lot better going against a Bill Belichick defense this week.”

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 34, Jaguars 10. “The Patriots are well coached by Bill Belichick. The Jaguars were poorly coached by Urban Meyer and some of the residual effects of his philosophy are being felt to drag down Trevor Lawrence and the defense. Belichick will befuddle Lawrence and his team’s strengths of the defense and the running game are further boosted by Jacksonville’s glaring weaknesses. Lawrence loses vs. Zach Wilson and Mac Jones in consecutive weeks and wishes his situation could get a lot better in 2022.”

Bill Bender, Sporting News: Patriots 30, Jaguars 14. “Here is another game with a remarkable spread. It’s another battle of rookie quarterbacks between Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones. Look for the Patriots to take advantage of a Jacksonville team that has a -19 turnover ratio. That won’t play well on the well, and Jones gets back on track with a pair of TD passes.”

Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 30, Jaguars 13. “Darrell Bevell won’t lose this one to Bill Belichick by calling a pass play with the game on the line. Hooray?”

Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 21, Jaguars 0. “In a matchup of rookie quarterbacks, the advantage goes to Mac Jones because he gets to play the Jaguars’ terrible defense, while Trevor Lawrence has to face the Patriots’ excellent defense.”

FiveThirtyEight: Patriots, 92 percent (-17).

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Patriots 27, Jaguars 10. “This is a tough one. The Patriots are limited offensively and have played sloppy football since their bye week. Then again, my rule to never, ever pick the Jaguars to win has recently extended to never, ever picking them to cover. It’s been a sound strategy, and New England should be able to grind them down even if it takes longer than the Foxborough faithful want.”

NFL Pickwatch: One hundred percent, Patriots.

It says here: Patriots 21, Jaguars 7. We’re onto Miami.

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