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What NFL experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Bills game
The Patriots are slight favorites to win Sunday.
The Patriots were probably due for a hiccup. Better it be against the Colts than the Bills.
Not to turn this into some sort of Michael Gee assessment, lauding the value of a loss because the team was winning just too many damned games, but last week’s defeat in Indianapolis was better served in the Midwest rather than this weekend in Foxborough.
With the AFC East on the line, the Patriots come into their showdown against the Bills with not only the chip of a loss on their collective shoulders, but also the immediate understanding of just how poorly-executed football can cost them. Missed tackles. Interceptions. Another blocked punt. Better it happen against the Colts.
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With a win, combined with a Dolphins loss, the Patriots can clinch the division, a status that won’t be known until long after the last snap. The Dolphins and Saints wrap up the NFL’s Week 16 on Monday night.
In other words, there will be no hats nor t-shirts handed out after Sunday’s game.
That would have been a rich scene to witness, particularly in the presence of the Bills.
This week’s predictions:
Globe staff: Four out of six take New England.
Joe Giglio, NJ.com: Patriots (-2.5). “One team is built for late-season, cold-weather football. The other team isn’t.”
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Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Bills 28, Patriots 23. “This is essentially for the division title. If the Bills win, they have two winnable games left. If the Patriots win, they pretty much lock up the division. So this will be fun. There won’t be wind like the last meeting, but there could be snow. That favors the better passing team, which is the Bills. I think they get revenge from the wind game and take it behind a good day by Josh Allen.”
John Breech, CBS Sports: Bills 20, Patriots 17. “The Bills offense played as poorly as possible in the first game and Buffalo STILL almost won. This time around, I think we’ll see Josh Allen play slightly better, which will lead to the Bills getting revenge and winning.”
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: New England (-2). “The Patriots got their much-needed loss out of the way, and they’re going to respond with a disciplined game wherein they once again run the ball 600 times directly over the Bills’ defense. I’m also not sure how we feel about Sean McDermott in a big spot. Outside of the empty stadium 2020 season, McDermott tends to morph into an unhinged, road rage-addled lunatic when he has to go up against Bill Belichick — forgetting the rules of the NFL, making godawful challenge decisions, screaming into the abyss, wasting timeouts, and so on and so forth. Just being frank, I don’t love him here.”
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Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots (-2.5). “Outspoken professional dumbass Cole Beasley will be out 10 days because he’s unvaccinated and he tested positive for COVID. Of course, it happened on the week of his team’s most important game of the season. Really, “Cole Beasley to miss most important game of the season due to COVID” was the most predictable headline of the season, with “Cole Beasley doesn’t blame himself” serving a close second. Beasley aside (he doesn’t really matter much in the outcome of this game), the Patri*ts were perhaps the hottest team in the NFL before their slip-up against the Colts, while the Bills have been wildly inconsistent.”
ESPN staff: Five out of nine pick the Bills.
Frank Schwab, Yahoo! Sports: Patriots (-2). “I’ll take the Patriots, who will have to play a more conventional game than the first meeting but on the whole have been the better team this season. It’s possible the Bills suddenly look like that Super Bowl favorite we expected, but it would be nice to see it first.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Bills 20, Patriots 17. “The Bills found something in the running game last week against the Panthers and also made their passing game more dangerous by unleashing Gabriel Davis to complement Stefon Diggs at wide receiver. They should be more relentless with the running game with Devin Singletary supporting Josh Allen while they adjust to handle the Patriots’ one-dimensional game plan with Mac Jones. Bill Belichick fooled them once, but the personnel limitations showed up here in the Buffalo rematch.”
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Bill Bender, Sporting News: Patriots 23, Bills 21. “The Patriots are coming off a rough outing against Indianapolis, and the Bills are back on track. It’s a game that likely decides who wins the AFC East given the Pats won the first one. Mac Jones has a 102.5 rating at home this season, and he avoids the big mistake against Buffalo.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 24, Bills 17. “The Patriots lacked energy against the Colts. They won’t lack energy against the Bills.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 20, Bills 14. “The Patriots can lock up the AFC East with a win, and I think they’re going to do it with a defense that clamps down on Josh Allen.”
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots, 62 percent (-3.5).
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Patriots 26, Bills 20. “It appears the Patriots could be without Nelson Agholor (concussion) and Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19), which will make it easier for the Bills to do what they do best: shut down limited pass attacks. Part of my preseason priors can’t imagine Buffalo getting swept, and Josh Allen is still capable of making plays you can’t scheme for. He has to run more in this game, but I still don’t quite trust the Bills coaching staff to win at the margins in situational football against Bill Belichick and a big-bodied Patriots roster designed to beat their division rivals.”
NFL Pickwatch: Fifty-eight percent, Patriots.
It says here: Patriots 25, Bills 20. The Bills won’t be “embarrassed” like last time, but they’ll still lose.
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