What NFL experts are predicting for Monday’s Patriots-Bills game
The Bills have already clinched the AFC East.
Well. Were we wrong.
It’s not the first time that phrase has appeared in this space, of course, but maybe we can be forgiven for presuming a good number of misconceptions during this tumultuous — and unusual — Patriots season.
From Sept. 29’s Sorry, America, the Patriots still aren’t going anywhere: “Oh, what the rest of America must have been thinking these last three weeks while watching the hated New England Patriots proceed with the 2020 NFL campaign as if the team were coming off a typical offseason. Just when everybody thought that Tom Brady’s escape to Tampa Bay would mean the thorn in every team’s side would finally fall back to earth, in steps Cam Newton and the machine keeps on churning.”
Then, there was this, from Oct. 8’s Is it time to start worrying about the Buffalo Bills? “This is not to discount the talent that exists in Buffalo, a franchise that has been rebuilding itself for the last 20 years, and might finally be on the doorstep to something special. Finally. Josh Allen has looked good while waiting for his pumpkin coach to arrive, even generating whispers of MVP from some in the football media. Stefon Diggs has proven to be every bit the weapon that the Patriots refuse to go out and get repeatedly. Suddenly, the Buffalo Bills are darlings of the NFL, a fresh face in a land of bumbling misdirection and a handful of contenders. But let’s slow down on the Bills.”
Whoops.
After two decades of both dominance and defying the odds, the reality that was the 2020 Patriots was stuck in denial. Josh Allen over Bill Belichick? Please. New England was just biding its time until it would make its expected run at another AFC East crown.
But then, the offense morphed into something better suited for Fenway Park, and the New England Patriots, as we’ve known them for so long, ceased to be.
There will be no postseason for the Patriots for the first time since 2008, the year Brady’s knee went sideways.
We can be forgiven for being delusional.
Apologies to Buffalo, which may end up winning the Super Bowl.
But that, I’m afraid, is a delusion unto itself.
This week’s predictions:
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports:Bills 28, Patriots 17.
“The Bills have clinched the AFC East, while the Patriots are playing out the string. It’s weird to even write that. Buffalo can still get the No. 2 seed, so it will be focused here. Look for another big game from Josh Allen. Bills keep rolling.”
Frank Schwab, Yahoo! Sports: Bills (-7). “The only thing I worry about is the Bills losing focus. They have the AFC East wrapped up. They aren’t going to catch the Chiefs for the bye in the AFC. New England is not good and Buffalo won’t have to score a lot to cover. The chance to put a big number on a team that has owned them and the AFC East for more than a decade might be their motivation.”
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots (+7). “I’m one game under .500 on the NFL picks this season.So I’ve completely wasted my time and yours. Way to go, Mike.”
Benjamin Hoffman, New York Times: Bills (-7). “How you feel about this game probably comes down to how petty you believe the Bills (11-3) are. After years of abuse at the hands of the Patriots (6-8), Buffalo has clinched its first A.F.C. East title since 1995. The team has a 1 percent shot at overtaking Kansas City for a first-round bye, so there’s little reason for the Bills to go all out. But Coach Bill Belichick will be standing on the opposite sideline, and watching him squirm might be reason enough for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the rest of Buffalo’s stars to try to put on a show in Foxborough, Mass. A season-ending injury to New England’s best defender, Stephon Gilmore, complicates things further and pushes a full touchdown spread into reasonable territory.”
ESPN staff: All Bills
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Bills 24, Patriots 14. “The Patriots are officially eliminated from the playoffs while the Bills, the new AFC East champions, know they can get the No. 2 seed in the AFC with the Steelers stumbling. They beat the Patriots once and want to do it again to put a stamp on the transition of power in prime time. The disparity at quarterback from Josh Allen to Cam Newton shows up here.”
Bill Bender, Sporting News: Bills 28, Patriots 20. “The Bills are AFC East champions, and now the opportunity to sweep the rival Patriots is there. The Bills might be the hottest team in the NFL, and Josh Allen continues the winning streak.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Bills 30, Patriots 20. “If given the chance to destroy the Patriots, the Bills gladly and happily will.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Bills 30, Patriots 20. “There’s been a changing of the guard in the AFC East, with the Bills winning the division and the Patriots mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The Bills take this one comfortably.”
Five Thirty Eight: Buffalo, 72 percent (-6.5).
NFL PickWatch: Bills, Ninety-five percent.
It says here: Bills 24, Patriots 13. Kyle Pitts and Mac Jones aren’t the worst consolation prizes for having a playoff streak snapped.
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