Here’s how the Patriots’ playoff hopes can strengthen in Week 13
It's a long shot they'll make it, but there is still a chance.
It may be a long shot, but the Patriots still have a chance to make the playoffs.
Entering Week 13, the odds that they’ll do so are at 13 percent, according to the New York Times’ Upshot model and FiveThirtyEight. Both prediction models also give the Patriots the slimmest of chances to still win the AFC East, giving the Patriots a two and three percent chance to do that, respectively.
The easiest way for the Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive is obviously to defeat the Chargers on Sunday. The Patriots are one-point underdogs against the 3-8 Chargers, so if they pull off the very minor upset, Upshot increases the Patriots’ playoff chances to 20 percent.
Sitting at 5-6, New England still would be out of the playoff picture. The Patriots are two games behind the Dolphins and Colts, who are both 7-4 and hold the final two wild card spots in the AFC. The Raiders and Ravens also sit between the final wild-card spot and the Patriots. Luckily for New England, it beat both teams earlier this season, giving it the tiebreaker over both teams if it should come to that.
What’s not so lucky for the Patriots is that of the four aforementioned teams, three of them are favorited to win their matchups on Sunday. The Raiders take on the winless Jets and the Dolphins host the 2-8-1 Bengals, who lost starting quarterback Joe Burrow for the season due to a torn ACL a couple of weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the Colts have a tougher matchup. Following their blowout home loss against the Titans last week, the Colts will travel south to Houston to take on the Texans. While Indianapolis is still expected to beat a 4-7 Houston team, the Texans have won their last two games, making it reasonable they could pull off the upset.
The Ravens host the Cowboys on Tuesday night. Despite Dallas’ 3-8 record, it’s definitely not a guarantee Baltimore wins on Tuesday. The Ravens still had 17 players on the COVID list as of Thursday evening, including last year’s MVP Lamar Jackson. The COVID-19 outbreak in Baltimore caused the Week 12 matchup against Pittsburgh to get pushed from Thanksgiving night to Wednesday – a game the Ravens lost, 19-14.
So, let’s say that the Dolphins and Raiders win as they should this weekend. If the Patriots win on Sunday while the Colts and Ravens lose, Upshot gives the Patriots a 20 percent chance to make the postseason. If the Ravens and Patriots win while the Colts lose, Upshot moves the Patriots’ playoff chances to 19 percent. If the Colts and Patriots win and the Ravens lose, Upshot drops the Patriots’ playoff chances to 17 percent.
If the Patriots and the four teams that are currently in their way of making the playoffs win in Week 13, New England’s playoff chances would actually increase from last week, moving from 13 to 16 percent.
A couple of other matchups that could have implications on the Patriots’ playoff hopes are Sunday’s Browns-Titans game and Monday’s Bills-49ers matchup. If the Patriots win and the Browns and Bills lose, the Patriots will move a game closer to the third team holding a wild card spot and the team leading the AFC East, respectively. That would also move the Patriots just two games back of the Bills with four games remaining, which could potentially make the Week 16 matchup in Foxborough a game that decides the division winner.
Of course, the Patriots still could very well lose on Sunday, making this exercise all for naught. A loss to the Chargers would move the Patriots’ playoff chances to three percent, according to Upshot. If that happens, the Patriots would need nothing short of a prayer to slide into the playoffs.
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