What NFL experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Ravens game
Forget the fact that it took the Patriots the entire 60 minutes to grab their first lead Monday night against the pathetic New York Jets. Just for one moment.
The win puts the Patriots only 3.5 games behind the front-running Bills in the AFC East. Which means, technically, the division is still in play.
As it currently stands, the Patriots are only two games out of a playoff spot. Again, technically. A lot has to happen in order for the 3-5 Pats to keep playing in January.
CBS gives New England a 9.6 percent chance of making the postseason in its projection, with wild card spots currently laid out for the Ravens, Colts, and Dolphins. Those are the second-best odds of teams that don’t figure to be in the picture by the time the season ends (CBS gives the Bengals a 38.3 percent chance of making it).
So, maybe the Patriots could sneak in, reserving a spot to get demolished by the Chiefs in the first round.
If that’s the end game that everybody would rather go for rather than sacrificing as many games (like the contest against the Jets) in order to improve draft position, then, great.
But Monday’s win was a blow to the Patriots’ future, nonetheless. By tanking the season, and securing a top-five draft pick, Bill Belichick would have had little wavering room in figuring out which player he would be picking. It would have been a slam-dunk.
But if the Patriots finish 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, etc. they’re sort of right back in the limbo of trusting Belichick the GM, which has been a risky proposition as of late.
This week’s showdown against the Baltimore Ravens is glaring in proving how badly Belichick has bungled the draft in recent years. As Darren Hartwell of NBC Sports Boston points out:
“The Baltimore Ravens, like the Patriots, took 10 players in the 2020 NFL Draft. While they selected slightly higher than New England in the first two rounds (No. 28 and No. 55 overall compared to No. 37 and No. 60 for the Patriots), both teams’ top five picks fell between No. 28 and No. 101 overall,” Harwell wrote.
“The Patriots’ top-five draft picks haven’t given them much of anything, though, as [Kyle] Dugger leads that group with 24.7 percent of total defensive snaps played this season. The Ravens’ top draft pick? LSU product Patrick Queen is an NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate with 52 tackles, five quarterback hits, four tackles for loss and two fumble recoveries through eight games.”
So, just for now, forget the fact that the Patriots beat the Jets on a last-second field goal.
You’ll probably have to remember it for years to come anyway, based on where the team will be picking in the spring.
This week’s predictions:
Childs Walker, Baltimore Sun: Ravens 31, Patriots 20.
“It feels strange to view a trip to Foxborough, Massachusetts, as a relatively light week on the schedule, but the Ravens are better than the Patriots in almost every area and will benefit from an extra day of preparation. Jackson will need to avoid turnovers against a good secondary, but the Patriots match up poorly against the Ravens’ power and don’t have enough offensive weapons to keep pace.”
Benjamin Hoffman, New York Times: Ravens (-7). “Both teams are coming off wins, but both wins might not sit all that well. The Ravens (6-2) struggled on offense for much of a victory over Indianapolis, while the Patriots (3-5) needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the winless New York Jets. There are degrees of struggle, however, and while Baltimore may have been exposed in recent weeks as being a step or two below Kansas City in the AFC’s pecking order, New England is only a few steps above the worst teams in the NFL.”
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Ravens 24, Patriots 13. “Man, this looked like a great primetime matchup! Then Tom Brady left, and New England crashed from dynasty to just another team. Pats barely beat winless Jets last Monday to end a four-game skid. Baltimore has won 10 road games in a row, and its only two losses this season have been to the combined 16-1 Steelers and Chiefs. Cam Newton’s struggles figure to continue vs. the best defense he’s faced.”
Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Ravens 31, Patriots 23. “OK, so these aren’t the same Patriots. Still, it’s another good test for the Ravens, who passed a big one last week in Indianapolis. It’s a matchup of what Cam Newton was against who Cam Newton is. Not sure if the young Cam could run like Lamar Jackson, though.”
MMQB staff: Everybody likes the Ravens.
ESPN staff: Only one out of 10 (Seth Wickersham) picks the Pats.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Ravens 27, Patriots 17. “The Patriots found a way to rally against the Jets, but it was not a good night for the defense. This will be even worse. Look for Lamar Jackson and the running game to have a big game against the New England defense. Cam Newton will not be able to keep up.”
CBS Sports staff: Six out of eight pick Baltimore (-7). Everybody likes the Ravens straight-up.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Ravens (-7). “If you’re against teams that have zero regard for the integrity of the game, then one of the rare good things to come out of 2020 is that the cheating Patri*ts stink now, and will probably continue to stink for the foreseeable future. Even better, again, for those of you who don’t like cheaters, the Patri*ts don’t stink quite enough to land one of the top-tier quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft.”
Frank Schwab, Yahoo! Sports: Ravens (-7). “Five of the Ravens’ six wins have been by 14 or more points. The Patriots should have lost to the winless Jets, but the Jets found a way to lose. It’s really odd to see the Patriots getting a touchdown at home, but this Pats team has no resemblance to the championship teams we’re used to seeing. The Ravens will be in every single teaser this week.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Ravens 20, Patriots 14. “Lamar Jackson is struggling to pass and isn’t getting much help from the traditional running game. The Patriots drafted and rebuilt their defense to better contain running QBs. They will work to take away that element and force the Ravens to grind out yards, not worrying much about big plays downfield. The Patriots, unfortunately, can’t trust Cam Newton to be in comfortable passing or running situations against the Ravens’ defense, either.”
Bill Bender, Sporting News: Ravens 28, Patriots 18. “Lamar Jackson led a 37-20 blowout against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football last season, and the Ravens jumped out to a 17-0 lead in that game. New England does not have enough offense to keep up, even if Bill Belichick can throw in a few wrinkles that slow the Ravens down this time.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Ravens 24, Patriots 20. “The Ravens are not taking the Patriots lightly. Which means that the Ravens will not find a way to lose this one.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Ravens 28, Patriots 17. “The Patriots barely beat a terrible Jets team on Monday night. They’re not going to have much luck against one of the best teams in the league.”
FiveThirtyEight: Ravens, 67 percent (-5).
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Ravens 35, Patriots 17. “This was a nightmare matchup for the Patriots last season, even when they had a strong defense. Now Bill Belichick coaches the 31st-ranked group in football, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. New England’s especially soft against the run, going up against a Ravens team that leads the league in rushing. Expect to see Robert Griffin III by the IVth quarter.”
NFL Pickwatch: Ninety-seven percent going with Baltimore.
Get Boston.com's browser alerts:
Enable breaking news notifications straight to your internet browser.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com