16 thoughts on the Patriots’ season-altering loss to the Bills
The Patriots can be interesting. But they are no longer any good.
COMMENTARY
Sixteen thoughts on the Patriots’ 24-21 loss to the Bills …
1. For almost 20 years, the if-onlys and so-closes were almost always the domain of the Patriots’ opponent.
If only we haven’t fumbled on what could have been a winning drive. If only that onside kick had taken a favorable bounce. If only. So close. We’ll get ‘em next time. They rarely did.
The new reality is not nearly as much fun. There have been so many instances in the 2-5 Patriots’ first seven games of this season when circumstances and plot twists that used to go their way – that they used to make go their way, with timely defensive stops, clever coaching, and unparalleled brilliance from the quarterback – have gone with the opposing side instead.
Late, potentially winning drives against the Seahawks and Broncos ended without payoff. But Sunday’s fumble by Cam Newton, who was charging toward redemption, with 31 seconds left and 15 yards to go until victory, was the most crushing development of all, because it ended the possibility of anything meaningful happening this season.
2. I’d call the ending — to a boring game that unexpectedly turned downright thrilling in the fourth quarter — as uncharacteristic of the Patriots. But it’s precisely characteristic of who and what they are now. Their defense is porous against the run. Their offense is light on weapons and creativity.
They can be interesting. But they are no longer any good.
They’ve won two of seven games this season and now lost four in a row for the first time since 2002. Over their last 16 games – a full season’s worth, including last year’s suspense-free playoff loss to the Titans – they’re 6-10.
The record isn’t fibbing. Their peers are not the contenders. They are the also-rans now.
3. The game was a must-win, and after an uninspiring first half, they came so close to pulling it off. Newton found his rhythm a bit in the second half, and played inspired football on the final drive, right up until potential victory was poked from his grasp by the Bills’ Justin Zimmer. He converted a third-and-4 to Jakobi Meyers – the one receiver with whom he seems to have a connection – on a well-executed play. He broke loose for a 19-yard run to the Bills 29 with 1 minute 29 seconds left. He probably had a few more yards ahead of him and had already gained five when Zimmer punched the ball loose and recovered.
4. The whole perception of the season would have been different had they won. Now, in one more close defeat, there can be only one mindset: What is the best approach to take over the final nine games to make sure they’re in the best position for 2021? I imagine some veterans will be dealt at the Tuesday deadline, though it wouldn’t shock me if Belichick brought in established talent, too. This isn’t going to be a fire sale. And the most enticing trade prospect, reigning defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore, is out with a knee injury.
5. Conventional wisdom suggests the Patriots should probably see what they have, if anything, in Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. But I’ll say this now: I’d much rather watch Newton, and I hope they stick with him. He’s nothing if not compelling. And they’re not winning anything with him anyway.
6. Damien Harris scored the Patriots’ first touchdown since Newton’s 1-yard run in the fourth quarter of the Week 6 loss to the Broncos, busting through the middle of the Bills defense for 22 yards in the third quarter. I’m all-in on Harris, who was averaging 5.4 yards per carry coming in and ended up with 102 yards on 16 carries, as the feature back going forward. Give that kid 20 carries one of these weeks.
7. I much prefer Harris to Sony Michel, and I imagine most Patriots do as well. I wish the Patriots had taken Nick Chubb over Michel in the first round of the 2018 draft if they really had to have a Georgia running back. But I don’t consider him a bust – he did run for 336 yards and six touchdowns in three postseason games as a rookie. And the last time we saw him before he was placed on the COVID-19 list, he ran for 119 yards on just nine carries against the Raiders.
8. If Harris wasn’t the Patriots’ best performer on offense, then it was receiver Jakobi Meyers, who finished with six catches on 10 targets for 59 yards, and actually seemed more productive than that. Belichick has never been one to allow draft position to determine playing time, but it’s mysterious why Meyers had such a hard time getting on the field to start the season when the likes of N’Keal Harry struggled.
9. Belichick’s decision to attempt an onside kick after the Patriots tied the game at 14 in the third quarter was bold, and we should appreciate a team that doesn’t always go by the book. But there’s no convincing argument that it was the right time to do it, with the Patriots defense having held the Bills to a three-and-out on their last possession and the momentum – if you believe in such concepts – having shifted their way. The Bills surely appreciated having 45 yards to the end zone rather than 75 after they recovered the kick.
10. There was no bigger indictment of the state of the Patriots offense in the first half than Belichick’s decision to send Nick Folk out for a field goal on third-and-1 from the Bills 15 when 12 seconds left in the first half. Not that it was a bad decision. Folk made the 33 yarder (he’s been rather reliable), and the hard truth is that the Patriots offense shouldn’t have been trusted to avoid making the situation worse with a penalty or turnover.
11. You want something to be encouraged about with the defense? Uh, after allowing 190 rushing yards, there’s not much, but there is this: Second-rounder Josh Uche made his presence felt on a couple of plays that allowed the Patriots defense to get off the field. On Buffalo’s second possession of the game, Uche and Chase Winovich forced Josh Allen to bounce a third-down throw. And on their second possession of the first half, he drilled Allen on third-and-8 to stop him several yards shy of the marker.
12. For the second straight week, J.C. Jackson intercepted a pass in the final minutes of the first half. He got Jimmy Garoppolo on a chuck-it-up shot at the end zone last week against the Niners. His interception of Allen, Jackson’s fourth pick of the year, actually led to Patriots points, with Nick Folk booting a field goal just before the half.
13. The Bills achieved on their first possession what the Patriots should have been trying to do to open the game: They ran the ball right down the Patriots’ gullets, with Zack Moss punctuating a 10-play, 78-yard drive with an 8-yard touchdown run. The Bills ran on 7 of the 10 plays, picking up 60 yards, including a total of 29 from Moss on the last two plays of the drives.
14. The Bills made it look even easier to start the second half, needing all of five plays to go 75 yards and take a 14-3 lead. The Bills ran four times for 34 yards on the drive, with Moss hammering through a Ja’Whaun Bentley tackle attempt to score from 4 yards out. The Patriots tackled like 11 Deltha O’Neals on the series, with seemingly a half-dozen Patriots whiffing on Stefon Diggs on his 41-yard catch-and-run.
15. It might be wise to start tuning in to Patriots games at 1:35 p.m. or so every Sunday, given that they still haven’t scored an offensive point in the first quarter all year. Belichick’s Subway commercials sparkle with more electricity than their offense does on its early possessions.
16. The first quarter scoreless streak reminds me of one of the weirdest stats for the dynasty era. The Patriots didn’t score a point in the first quarter of their first seven Super Bowl appearances, finally breaking the streak in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles on a Stephen Gostkowski field goal.
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