What NFL experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game
Commentary
If this week’s COVID-19 outbreak within the Tennessee Titans organization is a little more than blip on the NFL radar, then the league’s business-as-usual approach will still prove successful, overall.
But if we see more positive tests starting to develop on teams across the country, the NFL is going to have a challenge on its hands.
We’ve already seen the uncertain postponement of Sunday’s Titans-Steelers game, the first of its kind as the NFL attempts to complete the 2020 season in the midst of a pandemic, all while not utilizing the bubble format that proved so rewarding for the NBA and NHL. Unlike Major League Baseball, which was able to handle outbreaks within the Marlins and Cardinals by employing the benefits of doubleheaders, the National Football League doesn’t have the luxury of declaring, “Let’s play two.”
So, how does the scheduling work now? Do the Steelers and Titans get two byes? What happens if another team tests positive after it has already enjoyed its week off? Should the teams be forced to play the games with replacement players? Will the league just extend the regular season, and, thus, will we be watching football well into March and April if tests come back positive on a more frequent basis?
I mean, we just handed out the Stanley Cup in the last week of September. Nothing from a scheduling standpoint really seems out of whack anymore.
Why should this NFL season prove any different?
This week’s predictions:
Blair Kerkhoff, Kansas City Star: Chiefs 24, Patriots 20.
“In the Andy Reid era in Kansas City, the Chiefs and Patriots have split six meetings with New England winning the two most important contests, playoff games after the 2015 and 2018 seasons. In regular-season meetings, the Chiefs have won by 27, 15 and seven, and lost by a field goal. It’s a match of two great NFL minds, Reid and Bill Belichick, the previous two Super Bowl champion coaches and the NFL’s top active winning coaches. Cam Newton is 0-2 against the Chiefs in career starts while with the Carolina Panthers. Patrick Mahomes is coming off one of his best games. Look for the Chiefs to remain undefeated but it won’t be easy against a stout New England defense.”
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Chiefs 31, Patriots 27. “In Bill Belichick and Andy Reid we present the coaches ranked third and sixth in all-time NFL wins. Head-to-head it’s Hoodie over Foggy Face Shield, 7-3, and don’t discount Belichick continuing that trend Sunday. Chiefs are coming off short week after big Monday statement win over Ravens, while Pats and Cam Newton have rolled up 66 points during past two games. Also, New England is on an 8-4 run in this series, and Pats have won 12 consecutive October games. Still not sure it’s a good bet to think anybody is outscoring Patrick Mahomes right now, but Belichick-plus-seven is a pretty rare gift to pass up.”
Benjamin Hoffman, New York Times: Chiefs (-7). “In many ways, New England appears to be set up as well as anyone to compete with Kansas City. Its defense is strongest in the secondary, where cornerback Stephon Gilmore might be able to reasonably contain Kansas City wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and its offense is heavily run-focused, which is a weak point for the Chiefs defense — one that Baltimore almost bizarrely couldn’t exploit enough last week.”
MMQB staff: Five out of six pick the Chiefs.
ESPN staff: Eight out of nine go with Kansas City.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Chiefs 37, Patriots 24. “It’s always a treat when these two get together, even if Tom Brady isn’t a part of it anymore. The Chiefs are coming off an impressive showing at Baltimore and I think that carries over here. New England is great taking away one thing on offense, but this is an offense with many. Chiefs take it.”
CBS Sports staff: Split (Kansas City -7). Seven of eight pick the Chiefs straight-up.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Chiefs. “This game is sort of a passing of the torch of one NFL juggernaut to the next. The Chiefs, however, are awesome without the need for cheating.”
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots (+7). “This is absolutely my Dumb Idiot Bozo Pick Of The Week, no doubt. The Chiefs on Monday night looked about as frightening as any team has in quite some time. At least for the first half, anyway. The second half Chiefs were pretty bad…The Patriots will have their opportunities on the ground, and with the shrunken crowd size in K.C. not interfering with their snap counts on the road, I don’t hate their ability to keep this one close until the end.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Chiefs 27, Patriots 24. “It’s no secret the Patriots’ secondary will try to take Travis Kelce or Tyreek HIll away from Patrick Mahomes. New England’s defensive personnel is better equipped to slow the tight end. On offense, you can bet the Pats will go run-heavy with Cam Newton and their bevy of backs to grind out a ball-control game plan and keep Mahomes off the field. But this is a hostile spot for Newton, and he will need to throw against a tough pass rush and active secondary to keep up with Mahomes, who won’t need too many possessions to ensure Kansas City makes a narrow Arrowhead escape.”
Bill Bender, Sporting News: Chiefs 35, Patriots 32. “The Patriots are good with Cam Newton, but this is the second time in three weeks they can prove they will be a true Super Bowl contender. Patrick Mahomes is 1-2 in three career starts against the Pats, but the Chiefs average 31.3 points per game in those contests. It’s on New England to keep up this time, and they can’t quite do it this time. Kansas City is 4-0.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Chiefs 31, Patriots 27. “If there’s a postseason rematch, I’ll pick the Patriots. For now, Kansas City has the horses to outscore Cam Newton and company.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Chiefs 24, Patriots 21. “It wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs have a bit of a letdown after their big win on Monday night, but even with a letdown I see them finding a way to beat the Patriots.”
FiveThirtyEight: Chiefs, 74 percent (-7.5).
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Chiefs 31, Patriots 23. “This is the fourth time Patrick Mahomes has faced the Pats in his young career. His PFF grade is 63.8 against New England, compared to 95.0 vs. the rest of the league, but this is not the Patriots’ defense of yesteryear. Stephon Gilmore’s late-season slump in 2019 has continued into this season. Beyond Chase Winovich, the Patriots don’t have much of a pass rush. New England has the cornerbacks to limit some of Kansas City’s outside routes, but the Chiefs simply have more counters up the seams. It’s not the Patriots’ offense of yesteryear either, but that may be a good thing for this matchup. Cam Newton has led the most efficient rushing attack in football through three weeks, according to Football Outsiders. That matches up well against the Chiefs’ defense (fifth vs. pass, 30th vs. the run), making the Patriots the perfect team to employ the “keep the ball away from Mahomes” gambit. That could lead to a fun study of contrasts, but it’s always seemed like a sucker’s move to me. Losing faster is still losing.”
NFL Pickwatch: Ninety-three percent are going with Kansas City.
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