These 5 players will determine the success of the defense-first Patriots
Two new players and three returnees could make or break the 2020 Patriots.
COMMENTARY
The New England Patriots are no strangers to roster turnover. Last year it was Trey Flowers and Trent Brown who departed, for Detroit and Oakland, respectively. The year before that, it was Nate Solder (New York Giants), Danny Amendola (Detroit), and Malcolm Butler (Tennessee).
The Patriots are used to this cycle. It’s what happens when you achieve the level of consistency that this franchise has for the last 20 years. Good teams have many good players. No team can afford to keep everyone forever. This especially holds true in the salary cap era of the NFL today. Perhaps what is most remarkable about this run for New England is its ability to re-tool on the go and never miss a beat, no matter who they lose.
But this offseason’s talent drain has left the cupboard a little more bare than usual.
The loss of Tom Brady alone would be bad enough. But then you tack on other key departures such as Kyle Van Noy (Miami), Jamie Collins (Detroit), Danny Shelton (Detroit), and Elandon Roberts (Miami), and things start to look a little bleak, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
When you have Brady as your quarterback, your margin for error is larger. But in 2020, New England will be without the face of its franchise for the last 20 years, and will have a defense that is without several key contributors in 2020. Naturally, that margin for error is a lot smaller now.
Will the New England defense be able to keep up its high level of play from the 2019 season and help compensate for what will almost assuredly be a weaker, Tom Brady-less offense in 2020? That might be a tall task, considering the Patriots finished first in the NFL in 2019 in defensive DVOA, according to FootballOutsiders.com. For the defense to carry over its performance from last season into this season, here are some players who will need to step up in 2020.
Ja’Whaun Bentley
Bentley, a 2018 fifth-round pick by the Patriots, got off to a fast start in his rookie season, showing promise as an inside linebacker who seemed to quickly gain favor with the coaching staff. Bentley wore the green dot as the defensive signal-caller in the Patriots’ 2018 Week 3 matchup against the Detroit Lions, indicating his advanced knowledge of the playbook and the trust the coaches had in him as a rookie.
In that same Detroit game, Bentley also tore his biceps muscle, putting him on IR for the remainder of the season and putting a halt to what was turning into a promising rookie campaign.
Bentley wasn’t able to have the same impact in 2019 as he did in 2018 before he was injured, leaving him as a question mark for 2020. Part of his dip in production in 2019 was due to the talent in the Patriots’ linebacking corps, which limited Bentley’s playing time. But Bentley also didn’t put himself in the best position to succeed coming into the season. According to Boston Sports Journal’s Greg Bedard, Bentley had conditioning issues early on in training camp.
With New England’s linebacker depth extremely shallow at the moment, Bentley will be given an opportunity to prove he can be an every-down starting linebacker for this team.
Bentley is best at middle linebacker, where he can use his strong instincts and sound tackling technique to be a physical force in the middle for the Patriots defense, especially against the run. Whether or not he can stay healthy, and be accountable, will be key for the third-year linebacker.
Adrian Phillips
In typical Bill Belichick fashion, what may seem to be a under-the-radar signing could turn into a bargain deal in short order, if Adrian Phillips can return to form after suffering a broken forearm with the LA Chargers in 2019 that limited him to just seven games.
Before his injury-riddled 2019 season, Phillips earned Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors in 2018, mostly for his special teams work. However, Phillips did finish with 94 tackles on defense that year too, so he is no defensive slouch, either. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, Phillips rebounded from his broken forearm to finish the 2019 season with a higher overall grade (87.5) than Devin McCourty (80.8), who by many accounts had one of the finest seasons of his career in 2019 with the Patriots.
“He’s the captain of that secondary,” Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn said of Phillips. “He’ll be hard to replace.”
Phillips, who signed a two-year pact with New England, provides depth for the team at that box safety/linebacker hybrid position, where Patrick Chung has thrived for years. The 32-year-old Chung plays physically, which is harder for NFL safeties to do as they age. Phillips, who is 27, should help keep Chung fresh while providing another versatile defensive chess piece for Bill Belichick to utilize next season. Phillips has the ability to play both the safety and linebacker positions, depending on the opponent’s formation.
Beau Allen
Another position of need for the Patriots heading into the draft is defensive line, both on the edge and in the interior.
After Danny Shelton left and signed with the Detroit Lions for two years and $8 million, New England turned and signed former Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Beau Allen to a more incentive-laden two-year, $8 million deal that carries a smaller cap hit in 2020 than Shelton’s deal with the Lions does.
Don’t let the similar contracts fool you, though, as Allen and Shelton are not carbon copies of one another. At 6’3”, 327 pounds, Allen is lighter than the 6’2”, 345-pound Shelton, and is able to get after the quarterback in the passing game more than Shelton, who was better at drawing double teams and eating up space in the middle to free up room for linebackers to make plays.
Allen had a poor 2019 in Tampa Bay, playing a career-low 16 percent of the defensive snaps in his second season with the team. Despite that lack of playing time, Allen still managed to finish with a 73.9 grade as a run defender, according to Pro Football Focus
If you look back a couple of years to his time with the Philadelphia Eagles, where he played from 2014 to 2017, you can see the kind of player the Patriots are hoping to get. In his last two seasons with the Eagles, Allen had 46 combined QB pressures. For comparison, Danny Shelton had 32 combined QB pressures in two years in New England. With his ability to make plays in both the running and passing game, Allen has the chance to be a more complete player than Shelton, who excelled primarily in defending against the run.
Allen is less consistent in taking on double teams and eating up space, compared to Shelton, but nonetheless provides depth and some added pass-rushing ability at a position of need for the team. With experience playing in both three- and four-man fronts, and the ability to play on special teams too, Allen figures to have several roles on this team heading into 2020. If Allen can get back to being the player he was in Philadelphia, this will turn out to be a smart signing for the team.
Chase Winovich
Winovich quietly had a strong rookie season in Foxborough, playing all 16 games and finishing with 26 combined tackles, 10 QB hits, 4 tackles for a loss, and 5.5 sacks. Those 5.5 sacks were good for sixth-most by a Patriots rookie, and the most for a New England rookie since 2013.
Despite playing just 28.9 percent (291) of the Patriots’ defensive snaps in 2019, Winovich was sixth amongst all rookies from the 2019 draft class in sacks. Only Josh Allen (Jaguars), Nick Bosa (49ers), Brian Burns (Panthers), Maxx Crosby (Raiders), and Montez Sweat (Redskins) had more sacks than Winovich, and four of those five rookies were first-round draft picks and played significantly more snaps than Winovich did.
Whether the Michigan product can become more than a situational pass-rusher in his second year with the team will go a long way in determining whether the New England defense can replicate its performance from 2019. To do that, Winovich has to hold up better against the run, and develop a more diverse array of pass rush moves.
The early returns from his rookie season were encouraging, but Winovich still has plenty to prove heading into his second season.
J.C. Jackson
Would you believe me if I told you that JC Jackson was already a Top-10 cornerback in the NFL?
No? Well, you should.
Since Jackson’s arrival in New England, quarterbacks have a passer rating of 48.7 against him, lowest among league qualifiers. That list includes his teammate, and 2019 Defensive Player of the Year, Stephon Gilmore.
He also leads the 2018 rookie class in career interceptions with eight.
In 2019, his opponent passer rating of 37.0 led all cornerbacks with at least 150 snaps. His opponent completion rate of 49.2 percent was eighth-best in the NFL, and just barely behind Gilmore’s, which was 49 percent.
Jackson’s elite production, coupled with his cheap salary ($750,000 base salary in 2020), makes him a valuable player on this team for years to come. The 24-year-old is set to become a restricted free agent in 2021, meaning the team still controls his rights for at least another two years.
With Stephon Gilmore set to turn 30 in the 2021 season, the Patriots already have their next shutdown corner waiting in the wings in J.C. Jackson.
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