11 noteworthy projections for the Patriots at the halfway point
Could this be the best Patriots defense of all-time?
COMMENTARY
Midway through their 20th season together, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have their Patriots in a position where sportsbooks are taking bets on whether New England will finish the regular season undefeated — and there’s apparently people putting money on the possibility. One site, betonline.ag, has the Pats’ odds of going 16-0 at 4-to-1. That’s slightly better than the 5-to-1 odds they give the 7-1 Packers of winning the NFC.
Such faith is based on a dominating half-season in which the Patriots rolled through the competition with an outrageous scoring margin of plus-189, and paired a team on pace to become the 23rd ever to score 500 points in a season with a defense that’s being talked about as maybe among the best ever. After eight games, some of the numbers are silly — though the midpoint makes for a convenient place to project, and present some context if the club is able to carry this forward for an entire season.
With the help of the ever-useful profootballreference.com, here are 11 noteworthy projections based on the Patriots’ current pace — one for each game Patriots fans expect to be remaining in this team’s run:
1. In the grander scope of a 20-year career, half a season might not seem like a significant sampling — but it was only a couple of years ago that the Pats resisted pre-season trade offers for Jimmy Garoppolo, gave themselves half a season to evaluate Tom Brady, and thus decided the direction they’d go forward at the quarterback position. On the Halloween afternoon they dealt Garoppolo to the 49ers, Brady boasted a passer rating of 106.5; this Halloween it’s at 95.0, which ranks 14th among qualifying QBs. One spot above him is Steelers backup Mason Rudolph. One spot below is Redskins seat warmer Case Keenum. (Garoppolo is 18th, at 93.5). The efficiency demanded by the rating calculation may not be there entirely, but overall Brady is still on pace to throw for 4,502 yards, with 400 completions and 26 touchdowns to eight interceptions. That’d be his second-fewest scores since 2006, but still certainly a more-than-acceptable campaign.
2. Part of the equation for Brady is that he’s mostly played behind a makeshift offense line that’s loaded with backups and been using a lifetime journeyman at left tackle. Opponents know it, too. Pro Football Reference shows that Brady is currently on pace to be blitzed 200 times this season, and hurried by the rush 72 times. All of last season when the offensive line was a strength, enemies blitzed just 108 times, and hurried Brady on only 48 occasions. In the face of it all, though, Brady’s 64.7 percent completion percentage is actually better than his career average, and he’s managed the pressure enough that he’s on pace to get hit 28 times — down from 39 a year ago.
3. At 33 and with a rebuilt knee, Julian Edelman is on pace for a career year. If he duplicates his first half he’ll finish with 106 catches for 1,148 yards and eight touchdowns — all of which would surpass his previous highs of 105 catches (2013), 1,106 yards (2016), and seven scores (2015). He missed half a game and then appeared limited by his ailing ribs the next week, yet he’s still on pace for 158 targets; that’s one shy of the most he’s ever had.
4. Whether Edelman can maintain that level of usage remains to be seen. The same goes for Sony Michel. The second-year back is on track to tote the rock 280 times, which is 71 more regular-season carries than he had as a rookie. Michel’s three-touchdown game against the Jets skews the overall stats enough to put him on pace for a dozen scores, though his 3.3-yard per-carry average totals to a pace of just 928 yards.
5. Far less used is the tight end position, as most would probably expected in the vacant wake of Rob Gronkowski’s retirement. Last year the Dolphins targeted their tight end less than any NFL team, throwing to those guys just 58 times. Halfway through, the Pats are on pace to throw to that group only 44 times all season — down from 81 last season, and that was actually the fifth-fewest league-wide.
6. For all its perceived flaws and shortcomings, the Patriots offense finds itself on pace to score 50 touchdowns this season via the pass or the run. That would actually be three more than they scored last season, and compares favorably with the other two Super Bowl-winning seasons of the dynasty’s second act. The 2014 offense scored 48 regular-season TDs, while the 2016 group scored 51. The pace of the 2019 club isn’t simply explained away by saying they’ve benefited from the field position gifted the offense by a great defense. Only four of 25 scoring drives started in opposing territory, and the average drive has traveled 65 yards over eight plays.
7. The biggest benefit of a having a turnover factory for a defense is the additional possessions it creates, so even with New England’s mass of touchdowns, Jake Bailey is punting at a rate rarely seen in the Belichick era. He’s on track for 86 punts — remember, this was the so-called easy half of the schedule — which would be 10 more than his predecessor, Ryan Allen, ever executed. Allen punted 76 times in 2013, which was the most since 2003, when the Patriots had 87. The most punts ever for a Belichick Foxborough team is 89, in 2000.
8. The Pats are on a pace for 62 sacks, which would smash the previous high for any season in the Belichick era. Currently, that crown belongs to the 2015 team, which dropped opposing quarterbacks 49 times during the regular season. With 31 sacks through eight games, the Pats already have one more than the 30 they finished with over 16 games last season, and still looming are contests against Dolphin and Bengal teams that both rank among the league’s five-most sacked quarterbacking operations in the league.
9. A big part of those sack totals has been the work production of the Pats’ linebackers, with Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy leading the way among the Boogeymen with stats that project to All-Pro status. Both players are on pace to hit the quarterback 16 times apiece, with Collins tracking toward 12 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, a team-high 88 tackles overall, and six interceptions. Van Noy, despite missing the opener, is lined up for nine sacks of his own. Linemen Adam Butler and rookie Chase Winovich are projected to that total, too.
10. The numbers outlining the dominance of the Patriots’ defense as a whole are staggering. They’ve allowed 61 points, which puts them pace for 122 over 16 games. That’s as many as the next-stingiest team in the AFC has given up in its first seven contests, and 43 fewer than the 2000 Ravens’ NFL record. They’re on pace to give up 14 touchdowns of any kind (and three of the seven they’ve surrendered were the fault of the offense or special teams). The fewest any Patriots team has allowed under Belichick is 23, in 2003. The existing lows also include 264 first downs and 14 field goal tries; the 2019 pace is currently at 206 and 10, respectively.
11. There’s no shortage of individuals who factor into the collective success of the defense, but it’s Stephon Gilmore who might stand as football’s best player at his position. And through the first half he’s further establishing his bona fides as one of the best cornerbacks in Patriots history. Gilmore has got his hands on 10 passes this season, putting him on pace for 20 passes defended. That’s exactly as many as he had last season, when he became the fourth Pat under Belichick to hit that mark, and the first since Asante Samuel in 2006. The others to do it are Hall of Famer Ty Law and Tyrone Poole — but nobody has done it twice. Yet, at least.
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