What NFL experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Bills game
There’s reason for optimism in Buffalo, but little to suggest that this is any sort of turning or statement game for the Bills.
COMMENTARY
The hapless victims that have managed to get in the way of the New England Patriots over the first three games of the season are a combined 0-9.
By default, the Bills have played the more exhausting schedule; their opponents over the first three weeks are 1-8 (thank you, Daniel Jones).
Still, an undefeated showdown in the AFC East is still somewhat of a rarity unless it comes in the first game of the season. So, when the 3-0 Patriots and Bills meet on Sunday, it will pit two of the NFL’s top defenses up against each other.
The Patriots, whose defense has allowed nothing more than a Pittsburgh field goal, is first in the league allowing an average of 5.7 points per game (one point per game if you consider special teams and a pick-six accounted for the other scores). The Bills, the fifth-best defense in the league, have allowed an average of 15.7 points per game.
New England is allowing 199 yards per game, or, 100 yards fewer on average than the Bills (299.7). The Patriots have six interceptions, bringing two back for scores and 152 yards. The Bills have four interceptions. No touchdowns. They’ve returned those interceptions one yard. The Patriots’ defense has had a league-low 15 penalties called on it. The Bills have been called for 23.
There’s reason for optimism in Buffalo, but little to suggest that this is any sort of turning or statement game for the Bills.
This week’s predictions
Joe Giglio, NJ.com: Bills (Patriots -7). “A battle of two of the best defenses in football. We’ll see how much Josh Allen has grown when facing off against a Patriots defense is holding opposing quarterbacks to a 21.7 passer rating on third down. The Patriots are first team to not allow passing or rushing touchdown in each of their first three games of the season in the Super Bowl era. That changes on Sunday in a closer-than-you’d-think game.”
ESPN staff: All Pats.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 23, Bills 21. “This is a game with two 3-0 teams. Did I just write that? Yes, the Bills are undefeated as they ready to play the Patriots. They are good on defense, but face their biggest challenge here. I think they can handle it. Can Josh Allen handle the Patriots defense? I think he does just fine, but in the end the Patriots will win a close one.”
CBS Sports staff: Five out of eight pick the Bills (+7). Six out of eight pick the Patriots straight-up.
MMQB staff: Seven out of eight pick the Pats.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots. “T*m Brady is 30-3 vs. Buffalo, lol.”
Tadd Haislop, Sporting News: Patriots 23, Bills 13. “Second-year Bills quarterback Josh Allen was asked about this game moments after Buffalo beat Cincinnati to improve to 3-0, and he delivered a cliche response: “We’re going to try and stick to what we do.” Kids say the darnedest things, don’t they? If the Bills repeat what they’ve shown the Patriots on film, they have no chance of beating New England and taking control of the AFC East. Expect Buffalo’s stingy defense to put up a fight, but unless Allen delivers a passing performance that rivals that of Tom Brady, Buffalo can’t score enough points.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 24, Bills 13. “The Patriots’ offense might sputter a bit here with some running game issues and the Bills’ ability to make plays on every level, but their defense will continue to dominate. Look for them to take away John Brown with Stephon Gilmore and force Josh Allen into shorter passes against a good rush and tight intermediate coverage. Tom Brady will make sure New England keeps the ball moving with Julian Edelman and James White, executing the dink and dunk much better than Allen.”
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots. “It’s tempting to highlight this one as the AFC East game the Patriots randomly drop in a season. But that would be too obvious, now wouldn’t it? They’re obviously going to win this one and then lose to the Jets on Monday Night Football, or graciously give a victory to Brian Flores in Week 17. This one actually means something, doesn’t it? Which in turn means that the Patriots will win it and the Bills will not. That is the rule of the AFC East. (Fun fact: The Bills enter this weekend as AFC East leaders. Let’s just hope those crappy Patriots can muster the energy to put up a good fight!)”
MassLive staff: All Pats. “For Buffalo to win, this game needs to be like 10-7 the way New England’s defense is playing. If Julian Edelman doesn’t play that becomes a little more possible.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 30, Bills 21. “This victory will have Tom Brady’s named printed on it, along with the other things that will be thrown on the field with his name printed on them.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 30, Bills 14. “It’s not often that an undefeated team is a touchdown underdog at home, but the Bills are — and they should be even bigger underdogs.”
USA Today staff: Pats across the board.
Five Thirty Eight: Patriots (-4.5) with a 65 percent chance of winning.
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Patriots 20, Bills 9. “The Patriots‘ offense is also quietly looking for stability. The team’s makeshift offensive line has struggled in the running game, especially with veteran Shaq Mason starting the year in a slump. Receiver Phillip Dorsett (92.9 percent catch rate on 14 targets for 187 yards and three scores) has been a more reliable target than Josh Gordon (55 percent catch rate on 20 targets for 175 yards and one score). And Bills coach Sean McDermott has held the Patriots to 25 points or less in three of four meetings, which has included times when New England’s offense was peaking. Add it all up, and this looks like a game of punts, field position and turnovers. Between Allen and Tom Brady, it’s not hard to pick which quarterback is more likely to problem-solve as the day wears on.”
It says here: Patriots 26, Bills 6. Good news; Stephen Gostkowski makes two extra points. Bad news; He misses two as well.
