What NFL experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Dolphins game
Miami was outright embarrassed by the Baltimore Ravens, 59-10, in Week 1.
COMMENTARY
If we reflect solely on how the Patriots fared last season against Bill Belichick’s former chums — Matt Patricia and Mike Vrabel — maybe there shouldn’t be such overwhelming confidence heading into this weekend at Miami.
It was in Week 3 last year when New England lost, 26-10, to Patricia’s Detroit Lions; Week 10 when it dropped a 34-10 decision to Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans. Patricia finished 6-10 in his first stint as head coach, Vrabel, 9-7 in his.
New head coach Brian Flores could go 1-15 this season with the Miami Dolphins, who were outright embarrassed by the Baltimore Ravens, 59-10, in Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season. Would it surprise anyone if Flores’ lone victory of the season came against his old boss, an achievement Patricia and Vrabel were able to accomplish against Belichick in 2018?
It should. He won’t.
In fact, the Patriots’ schedule is so potentially putrid, that a similar hiccup to those that happened last season seems foolhardy to predict. Maybe against the Ravens, if they’re able to maintain their scoring spree? The Browns, if they figure it out after Week 1 and display some of their expected potential? The Chiefs, who everybody figures to be New England’s opponent in the AFC Championship come January?
The Dolphins? Ha. Nope.
Patriots quietly signed a new wide receiver this week, too. Seems like everyone is just going to love this guy.
This week’s picks
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 34, Dolphins 17. “Miami is one of eight home underdogs in Week 2, and oh what a dog! Combo of last week’s humiliating 59-10 opening loss to Baltimore and New England being New England has left Dolphins getting 18 1/2 points. Perspective: That’s biggest NFL spread since 2007, and one of only three times in past 30 years a road team has been favored by this much. Interesting subplots: Brian Flores coaching against his former team, and Antonio Brown’s debut (maybe) for Pats. Would it shock for Fins to lose by 30-plus? Nope. But Miami is on a 5-1 run at home vs. Tom Brady, and I’m hunching that whatever pride wasn’t beaten out of the Dolphins last week will be marshaled for a credible performance that beats not the Patriots, but at least the point spread.”
ESPN staff: All Pats.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 40, Dolphins 10. “This has all the makings of a blowout. But the Patriots have traditionally had issues in Miami. Will that factor here? No chance. The Dolphins are a mess and Tom Brady will carve them to shreds. This will be tough to watch. Kids should cover their eyes.”
CBS Sports staff: Five out of eight pick Miami (+19). Seven out of eight pick New England straight-up.
Joe Giglio, NJ.com: Patriots (-18). “If this line jumped over 20, it would be wise to pass. But a tanking team vs. the best in the NFL is as big of a mismatch as you’ll see in a league designed to keep every team around 8-8.”
Benjamin Hoffman, New York Times: Dolphins (+18.5). “No favored N.F.L. team has covered a spread of more than 16 points on the road, and the Patriots are being asked to cover 18.5 (a number that rose from an opening spread of 15, and one that could rise even more based on plausible scenarios like the Dolphins’ few decent remaining players quitting to become long-haul truck drivers). But there’s a reason gigantic point spreads on the road are not typically covered, and it has to do with things like motivation, garbage-time touchdowns, injuries and other factors. Will New England win? Almost certainly, yes. Could New England cover? Yes. Will they? Probably not.”
MMQB staff: Patriots across the board.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots (-19). “Maybe Antonio Brown is guilty of rape. Maybe he isn’t. What seems pretty clear, either way, is that he’s a horrible person. Also, let’s just go ahead and make the well-established point that the Patri*ts, in addition to having been caught cheating multiple times, also have enjoyed the advantage of playing in one of the worst divisions in sports for like two decades.”
Todd Haislop, Sporting News: Patriots 35, Dolphins 10. “As much as we like to consider early-season divisional games as possibilities for upsets, there’s no reason to get cute here. This game should be the bloodbath the oddsmakers think it will be. Things appear to be going south in South Beach quickly this year, and the opposite can be said for the defending champs.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 38, Dolphins 14. “Last week, the Patriots beat the Steelers 33-3 at home, and the Dolphins lost to the Ravens 59-10 at home. The visitors can get by with 11 fewer points, and the hosts need to do more than 30 points better. This might feel like a trap because New England has a history of struggling in Miami, especially in the early-season heat, but not this year. The Patriots also tend to keep stepping on the gas with Tom Brady, and after losing badly to Matt Patricia’s team last year, Bill Belichick will put Brian Flores in place. Tack-on field goals always help.”
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: New England. “The Patriots won’t win by 50. But they’ll win by 30.”
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 45, Dolphins 17. “Jarrett Stidham could get more than 20 minutes of work in this one.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 27, Dolphins 10. “This is one of those games where the Patriots could name their own score. If they want to win by 50 they can, but I suspect Bill Belichick will call off the dogs early against his protege Brian Flores.”
USA Today staff: All New England.
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots with an 81 percent chance (-10).
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Patriots 34, Dolphins 17. “The Patriots have lost five of their last six games in Miami, and Bill Belichick was thumped by former proteges Matt Patricia and Mike Vrabel last season, facts which probably make Belichick far less comfortable than his fans this week. Even if Belichick saying that the Dolphins have so many “great players,” that they “can’t get them all in the game at the same time” feels like laying it on thick, there’s a paranoid part of Belichick that probably believes it. Comfort isn’t Belichick’s thing. The addition of Antonio Brown and the subsequent sexual assault allegationsbrought against him have somehow raised the stakes for an organization that has been to three straight Super Bowls. It looks exhausting from the outside, but Tom Brady followed up a sharp camp with a sharper season opener. Belichick should be glowing (on the inside) because of his defense, with a dynamic linebacker group and players like slot corner Jonathan Jones ready to make the leap. All the continuity in the secondary allows the defense to start in midseason form, while the Dolphins are just looking to find keepers after their Week 1 embarrassment. On the plus side, Ryan Fitzpatrick played about as well as a quarterback can in a 59-10 loss, and NFL rosters are too balanced for such beatdowns to continue. At least the expectations are now so low that a 17-point home loss could be considered a moral victory.”
It says here: Patriots 19, Dolphins 0. Oh, they’ll score more. But it would be entertaining to see if they could pull off this numerical preview of things to come. Just for fun.
