12 expert predictions on the 2019 Patriots
One writer believes Sony Michel will lead the AFC in rushing.
The preseason is over, and regular season football has finally arrived.
Here are 12 Patriots-centric predictions, focusing on both individual players and the team as a whole.
The Patriots have a 12.06 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Or was it 12.07? Preseason predictions don’t always carry a whole lot of clout, but Football Power Index puts New England as the third-most-likely to win it all, behind the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints and percentage points ahead of the Los Angeles Rams.
FPI also gives the Patriots the third-best odds to make the Super Bowl, at 23.12 percent. It has them estimated at 10.4 wins and finishing first in the AFC East, boasting the fourth best offense and 12th best defense.
They won’t make the AFC Championship Game.
New England has made it to the AFC Championship Game eight years in a row, but a panel of 45 ESPN NFL Nation writers and editors collectively predicted that streak will come to an end. The panelists have AFC West winner Kansas City and the San Diego Chargers facing each other, with the Chiefs winning both that game and the Super Bowl.
Of course, that doesn’t mean all of the panelists believe this, but it was deemed the most likely outcome after all votes were tallied. The writers and editors also predicted that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will win the Most Valuable Player award.
The Cleveland Browns are as likely to win the Super Bowl as the Patriots.
Yep, you read that right. Out of 29 NFL.com analysts polled, three picked the Browns and three chose the Patriots to win it all.
Why the Patriots?
“With two weeks to prepare, Bill Belichick stymies the Saints’ offense, and Tom Brady — helped by a strong power ground game — does enough in the fourth quarter to win another Super Bowl,” Charley Casserly wrote.
And the Browns?
“Our world is a beautiful and mystical realm of the mind,” Marc Sessler wrote. “Let’s voyage to the deepest dreamscape, where the Cleveland Browns — winless just two seasons ago — do the unthinkable. Say hello to America’s Team 2.0.”
Don’t shoot the messenger.
Sony Michel will lead the AFC in rushing.
CBS Sports writer John Breech expects Michel to take another step in his development and be a consistent weapon for the Patriots following a dominant postseason last year.
Breech noted that Joe Mixon led the conference in rushing in 2018 with 1,168 yards. Michel averaged 71.6 yards per game last year, Breech pointed out, which would have put him at 1,146 if he had played all 16 games.
“Due to the depth the Patriots have at running back, Michel may not be able to reach the 1,400 or 1,500 yards that it might take to lead the NFL in rushing, but leading the AFC definitely seems like a realistic goal,” Breech wrote.
https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1167388743814340613
Stephon Gilmore will win Defensive Player of the Year.
He has NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal’s preseason vote as the most likely to take home the award. The cornerback Gilmore, who finished with 45 tackles, 20 passes deflected, two interceptions, two forced fumbles, and one sack a season ago, has earned plenty of praise around the league.
N’Keal Harry will win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
While Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is the most popular choice, the wide receiver Harry checks in fourth on NFL.com’s poll, with votes from David Carr and Shaun O’Hara.
The Patriots won’t win the AFC East.
28 out of 29 NFL.com analysts believe New England will win the division for the 11th straight year, but former No. 1 overall pick David Carr doesn’t see it unfolding that way. Carr has the Patriots as a Wild Card team, behind the New York Jets.
Again, don’t shoot the messenger.
Tom Brady is the third best QB in the NFL.
Sporting News slots him behind Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers and ahead of Drew Brees and Russell Wilson.
“Brady will be getting used to life without Rob Gronkowski in 2019 and leaning a little more on the run, but it’s hard to rank him any lower until he retires,” Vinnie Iyer wrote.
Chase Winovich will blossom into Bill Belichick’s latest draft steal.
According to Yardbarker.com, Belichick may have found a hidden gem when he selected the University of Michigan product in the third round of his year’s draft.
Writer Chris Mueller noted that Belichick praised Winovich for his speed, motor, athleticism, and adaptability, and Mueller believes Winovich has a high ceiling.
“An early endorsement from one of the sport’s all-time great defensive minds may mean he’s on the fast track to NFL success,” Mueller wrote.
They’ll face relatively weak QBs.
In a column for The Washington Post, longtime reporter John Clayton pointed out that New England only sees five QBs he considers in the top two tiers of the league.
“Four of those five matchups are at home,” Clayton wrote. “That’s a schedule that could get them to 12 wins.”
Outside of Ben Roethlisberger, Mahomes, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and Baker Mayfield, the Patriots have a relatively easy draw in Clayton’s eyes.
Bill Belichick Live Postgame Press Conference: https://t.co/poMk19GAlg
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) August 30, 2019
Their defense will be better than it was last year.
Clayton believes New England’s defense will excel this season and be even better than last year’s unit that allowed 20 points per game. He expects the defense to help the team to the Super Bowl, but he envisions Brees and the Saints winning it all.
The Patriots will win their third Super Bowl in four years for the second time.
Sports Illustrated writer Andy Benoit projects that New England will win the division, earn the No. 1 seed, win the AFC, and win the Super Bowl.
“Yes, picking the Patriots feels boring and lazy,” Benoit wrote. “But their defense is much stronger than it was at this time last year, and they’re one of the few offenses built around a smashmouth ground game. Oh, and when they’re not pounding the rock, they’ll rely on Tom Brady, who has still shown no sign of decline.”
