Here’s a betting guide for picking the Super Bowl MVP
It's a quarterback's world, but don't sleep on a stellar defensive performance.
In the world of prop bets, picking the Super Bowl MVP is king.
It’s not guessing the apparel of the national anthem singer, what color the sportsdrink will be in the victorious celebration, or how many plays Tony Romo will correctly predict — good luck scoring that one, poor sportsbook employee — but choosing the most valuable player has that perfect mix of luck and skill attached to it. There’s far less randomness than a coin toss. After 52 Super Bowls, we have some idea about how these things go. And yet, it doesn’t feel like it requires a deep amount of football knowledge. It’s a prop even your mother can enjoy.
“Probably [Julian] Edelman,” said my mother Christine, who used to harangue my father and me for monopolizing the TV with football and assured she wouldn’t be watching at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday. “That’s who [Tom Brady] usually throws all the touchdowns to, right?”
The second-leading catch man in NFL playoff history isn’t a bad call, especially at the +2000 odds being offered by Bovada on Feb. 1. (Meaning a $100 bet would nab a $2,000 profit.) There are, however, better ones in this author’s opinion.
For entertainment purposes only, which I say mostly just because the 14-page wagering menu from the new sportsbooks in Rhode Island inexplicably don’t include an MVP prop, here’s a rundown of your options for Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta.
The quarterbacks
Seven of the last nine and 24 of the last 40 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, which is little surprise to anyone aware of what a passing-friendly league the NFL has become. (This regular season set an all-time record for passing touchdowns, and though this year only ranked third in total passing yards, the past 10 seasons are the 10 highest all-time.) As such, Tom Brady (+140) is the odds-on favorite to make it five Super Bowl MVPs, with Jared Goff (+250) a clear No. 2.
Brady threw for just 145 yards against the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, but his final-drive heroics pushed him past Ty Law (seven tackles, one pick-6 interception) for his first award. Deion Branch had 10 catches for 143 yards and a score against Carolina two years later, but he’d have to wait until the following year against the Eagles, when his 133 yards receiving were more than half Brady’s total.
Brady’s 328 yards and 4 touchdowns against Seattle rightfully earned a third MVP. Did his 466 yards and two touchdowns against Atlanta deserve it over James White’s two total touchdowns and tying 2-point conversion? Debatable, but again … the quarterbacks have the edge here, and you’ll be paid accordingly.
The running backs
With Sean McVay beginning Super Bowl week by stressing he has to do a “better job of getting” Todd Gurley (+900) involved in the Rams’ offense, it’s little surprise the Los Angeles offensive stalwart is the No. 3 betting choice, just ahead of former Georgia teammate Sony Michel (+1200), whose five touchdowns in the AFC playoffs are already an NFL rookie record, and the battering ram C.J. Anderson (+1800).
Seven running backs have Super Bowl MVP awards, though none since Terrell Davis gashed the Packers for 157 yards and three touchdowns in January 1998. That’s less than half of the 16 victorious rushers to reach 100 yards in a Super Bowl, most notably Timmy Smith, whose one moment in the NFL sun was collecting a record 204 rushing yards in Washington’s rout on Denver in Super Bowl XXII in January 1988. (Doug Williams did throw for four touchdowns.)
Of the 14 backs to rush for at least two scores in a Super Bowl, just four won MVP — Larry Csonka in 1974, Marcus Allen in 1984, Emmitt Smith in 1994, and Davis (the only player to rush for three). The others three were clearly dominant offensive days: Franco Harris (1975) rushed for 158 yards when Terry Bradshaw threw for fewer than 100; John Riggins (1983) had 166 to Joe Theismann’s 143; and Ottis Anderson (1991) ground out 102 yards against the run-and-shoot Bills, arguably the centerpiece of a game plan in which the Bill Parcells/Bill Belichick Giants held the ball for more than 40 minutes.
Further down this year’s list sit White (+2000), Rex Burkhead (+8000), and James Develin (+40000).
The pass catchers
There’ve been six wide receiver MVPs, three coming in the 2000s via Branch (vs. Philadelphia), and the Pittsburgh duo of Hines Ward (2006), and Santonio Holmes (2009). More often than not, the quarterbacks get the reward for big passing days: There’ve been 29 different 100-yard receiving days by winning receivers, accounting for 25 Super Bowls. And one of those six MVP wideouts didn’t even reach that threshold in his team’s victory. Fred Biletnikoff only had 79 yards when John Madden’s Raiders dismantled the Vikings in 1977 at the Rose Bowl.
In one of the weirder Super Bowl stats you’ll find, none of the 11 players to catch multiple touchdown passes in a Super Bowl, including Jerry Rice’s two three-score games, won an MVP. (Rice’s MVP came in 1989, when he had 215 yards and scored just once.)
It’s something to consider as you peruse the odds for Rob Gronkowski (+1600), who’d be the first tight end ever chosen; Edelman (+2000), Brandin Cooks (+4000), Robert Woods (+5000), Cordarrelle Patterson (+8000), Chris Hogan (+10000), Josh Reynolds (+10000), Malcolm Brown (+20000), and Phillip Dorsett (+25000).
The wild cards
The above groups leave 11 other positions with MVPs in their history. A quick recap:
- 1971: After the victorious Baltimore Colts committed seven turnovers, the MVP went to a losing player: Dallas linebacker Chuck Howley, who picked off two passes.
- 1973: Jake Scott’s two interceptions for the perfect Miami Dolphins were critical in a 14-7 victory, including one to snuff out a scoring drive in the fourth quarter.
- 1978: Defensive end Harvey Martin and defensive tackle Randy White split it for the Cowboys in a game where Denver completed eight passes and committed eight turnovers.
- 1986: Chicago defensive end Richard Dent forced two fumbles and had 1.5 sacks against … look, I’m not going to make you remember any more than you already have.
- 1996: Dallas cornerback Larry Brown picked off Pittsburgh’s Neil O’Donnell twice in the second half, running one back 33 yards and the other 44 to set up Cowboys touchdowns.
- 1997: Desmond Howard scored one for the special teamers, running a kickoff back 99 yards immediately after Drew Bledsoe’s Patriots closed to within 27-21 of Green Bay in the third quarter.
- 2001: Baltimore came within a kick return of shutting out the Giants, and linebacker Ray Lewis’ general terrorizing of Kerry Collins — 5 tackles, 4 passes defensed — carried the day.
- 2003: Tampa safety Dexter Jackson had a pair of interceptions early in what became a 48-21 rout of Rich Gannon’s Raiders. Strangely, Gannon’s other three picks were all returned for touchdowns, but it was still Jackson’s award.
- 2014: Shockingly, a game that ended 43-8 rewarded a defender. Seattle linebacker Malcolm Smith, who had a pick-6 of Peyton Manning, 9 tackles, and a fumble recovery.
- 2016: Denver linebacker Von Miller had 2.5 of the Broncos’ four sacks as they shut down high-powered Carolina, adding a strip sack to help seal the game.
Rare, but probably not as rare as you’d think. Outstanding defensive performances get rewarded, especially in games where they’re indicative of dominant team performances. That seems unlikely in a game between two of this season’s five-best scoring offenses and teams who’ve combined for 929.5 yards/game in the playoffs, but anything can happen on one evening under the brightest lights.
All-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald (+1800), who spent part of Monday night advocating for the non-QB set; linemate Ndamukong Suh (+7500); linebacker Dante Fowler Jr. (+7500); and cornerbacks Aqib Talib (+9000) and Marcus Peters (+12500) are the defensive favorites. Yup, all Rams. Kyle Van Noy (+10000) and Trey Flowers (+12500) are the top Patriots choices, with Stephon Gilmore (+15000) lurking as well.
Kickers Stephen Gostkowski and Greg Zuerlein are each +6600, if you feel a battle of field goals coming on.
