What experts are predicting for Sunday’s Patriots-Bills game
"Make sure and buy your 'AFC East Champs' gear. Might be as good as it gets."
COMMENTARY
What now?
It was only three weeks ago that the New England Patriots graced their home turf with championship levels of encouragement. The offense was in rhythm, the defense looked solid, and many took their 24-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings to be a sign of the tide turning at the most opportune time.
Since then, to quote the great baseball philosopher Dennis Eckersley: “Yuck.”
In the wake of the Miami Miracle, the Pittsburgh Prostration, and Josh Gordon’s suspension, the Patriots return Sunday to Gillette Stadium to host the Buffalo Bills, a game that carries the scenario where New England can clinch the AFC East for a third-straight week.
The 5-9 Bills come in a different animal than the one the Patriots faced in Orchard Park earlier this season. Josh Allen presents a new layer of concern for a New England defense that has all but laid out the red carpet for opposing running backs. Add a mobile quarterback into the mix, and it presents the possibility for a long afternoon in Foxborough.
Add to that a Patriots offense that hasn’t exactly been scoring at will over the last two months going up a Bills defense that ranks second in yards allowed per game. What will Josh Gordon’s suspension mean for Tom Brady’s circle of trust, and can the likes of Chris Hogan and Philip Dorsett work their ways back in?
The Patriots will win because it’s at home. Beyond that reason, confidence is lacking.
This week’s picks:
Four out of five pick the Patriots. Vic Carucci picks the Bills, 21-17. “Picking the Bills to beat the Patriots is usually seen as either taking the longshot for the sake of taking the longshot or simply being foolish. But something seems different this time. The Patriots just don’t look right. Saying the Bills are good enough to capitalize on that vulnerability is probably a reach, but it’s fair to think, with Josh Allen at quarterback, the offense is in more dynamic hands than it was when the Pats won at New Era Field on Oct. 29. Let’s go the foolish route.”
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 38, Bills 13. “New England is 6-0 at home and won 13 straight at Gillette. Tom Brady is 29-3 vs. Buffalo, including 25-6 in first meeting. Pats have not lost three games in a row since 2002. NE bags its 10th straight division title with win. Josh Gordon quitting Pats to deal with his mental health is big, but ought not matter much here.”
Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Patriots 30, Bills 12. “After a lackluster performance at Heinz Field, the Patriots get some good news. Their final two games are at home, where they are the league’s only unbeaten team. Slot ’em: 11-5.”
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 28, Bills 13. “The Bills have done a solid job of playing hard for the entire season. That’s a good sign. The Patriots have lost two straight games, so they have issues. But this will be a game to fix them. The Patriots will get back on track with a big victory.”
CBS Sports staff: Five out of seven pick the Patriots (-12.5). Everybody likes New England straight-up.
Joe Giglio, NJ.com: Patriots (-13). “The Patriots look off lately, but a win over Buffalo combined with a Texans loss would put this team right back on track for a bye.”
Benjamin Hoffman, New York Times: Bills (+13). “A home game against the Bills (5-9) should help, especially since a win would give the Patriots an A.F.C. East title for the 16th time in 18 seasons. But will they win by 13? Buffalo has the perfect garbage time quarterback in Josh Allen, as he loves to throw deep (regardless of coverage or the quality of his wide receivers) and he can break off huge runs in the rare event he decides not to throw. So even a huge early lead could dissipate as New England goes into ‘don’t get anyone injured’ mode.”
MMQB staff: All Pats.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots (-12.5). “Tom Brady is 29-3 against the Bills for his career, and one of those losses was in a meaningless Week 17 game in which he stood on the sidelines for most of the game.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 34, Bills 17. “Josh Allen will present some challenges for Bill Belichick’s defense because he’s a deep-throwing, mad-scrambling wild card who does things off-script. But he can also be sloppy with the ball and make physical mistakes. New England will be focused on eliminating the mental mistakes that have caused its uncharacteristic December slide and get back to power running and setting up easier throws for Tom Brady.”
SB Nation staff: All Pats.
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 34, Bills 13. “Go ahead, write them off. It will play right into their hands.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 30, Bills 20. “The Patriots will clinch the AFC East with a win over the Bills and snap their two-game losing streak.”
MassLive staff: All Patriots (-13).
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots with an 84 percent chance of winning.
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 30, Bills 13. “This AFC East clash is steeped in history, as these are two original AFL franchises. The Bills have upset the Patriots a time or three during the Belichick/Brady era, and certainly in the 59-year history of this rivalry. Not seeing it this week. Not sure if Tom Brady is hearing the proverbial whispers, but he certainly has watched the tape of last Sunday’s underwhelming performance at Heinz. So has Buffalo’s Sean McDermott, who will undoubtedly want DC Leslie Frazier to dial up a gaggle of blitz schemes to rattle the veteran quarterback. I don’t anticipate the Bills playing the numbers game all the time in the secondary, solely relying on the front four to create pressure. The missing man in New England’s offense who could play a huge role this week: James White, who has averaged 6.5 touches the last two games after getting 12.5 per game over the first 12 weeks. Brady will need to lean on his multi-talented back, especially with Josh Gordon suddenly out of the mix. Looking forward to seeing how the Patriots approach Josh Allen, who was quiet on the ground against the Lions last week. NE: Clinch AFC East with a win.”
It says here: Patriots 24, Bills 14. Make sure and buy your “AFC East Champs” gear. Might be as good as it gets.
