How the AFC playoff picture looks for the Patriots
The Patriots are not currently projected to get a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Through 11 weeks of the NFL season, a few teams have posed more questions than they’ve answered. For a myriad of reasons, this is especially true in 2018. Five teams are 5-5, each with one foot in the AFC playoff race while the other toes a potential top-10 pick.
Above the cluster of .500 teams are four division leaders, as well as the 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers. Since only six teams per conference make the postseason, it means five teams (at least) are competing for one playoff spot, barring any collapses on the part of the AFC’s current leaders.
The standings and schedule
The Patriots, holding a 7-3 record, are perched in the familiar position atop the AFC East.
Patriots (7-3)
Dolphins (5-5)
Bills (3-7)
Jets (3-7)
In comparison to other division leaders, this is how the AFC conference race looks:
Chiefs (9-2)
Steelers (7-2-1)
Patriots (7-3)
Texans (7-3)
The Patriots win the tiebreaker over the Texans, given their 27-20 season-opening win over Houston.
Four of their remaining six games on the schedule come against division opponents, with half coming at home:
Week 12: at Jets (1 p.m.)
Week 13: vs. Vikings (4:25 p.m.)
Week 14: at Dolphins (1 p.m.)
Week 15: at Steelers (4:25 p.m.)
Week 16: vs. Bills (1 p.m.)
Week 17: vs. Jets (1 p.m.)
Possible outcomes
First, a few basic reminders:
- Only two teams in each conference get a playoff bye.
- The AFC’s best team gets home field advantage throughout the playoffs (until the Super Bowl).
- Teams with the same record will be separated using the NFL’s extensive tiebreaker rules.
The Patriots have wins over both the Texans and Chiefs, and a Week 15 matchup in Pittsburgh offers a chance to get a step ahead of another AFC rival. That would give New England potential tiebreaker wins over three of the current four division leaders.
In order to attain a first round bye, the Patriots almost certainly have to go at least 12-4. No team has lost more than four games and still been able to skip wild card weekend since 2002 (when it happened twice).
In other words, the Patriots can basically afford to lose only one more game in their remaining six.
The Chiefs, possessors of the AFC’s best record, head into their bye week at 9-2. Since the Patriots win the head-to-head tiebreaker, home field advantage (via a top playoff seed) is still very possible. However, Kansas City’s remaining games include two against the 2-8 Raiders. And two of the Chiefs’ tougher remaining games (against the Ravens and Chargers) are at home, where Kansas City is currently undefeated.
The Steelers, whose remaining games include match-ups with the Patriots, Chargers and Saints, possess potentially the most difficult schedule of the group. Pittsburgh, who tied the Browns in Week 1, currently hold a slight advantage in the second spot in the AFC.
It might be natural for Patriots fans to assume another AFC East championship, but the division is actually far from locked up. At 5-5, the Dolphins are only two games behind, and host the Patriots in Miami on Dec. 9. This game could be the decisive moment, should the Patriots win. If the Dolphins win, it might reopen the race.
Miami’s remaining games include two clashes with the Bills, trips to Indianapolis and Minnesota, and a home game against the Jaguars.
While 5-5 teams might not appear to present danger, it’s worth remembering that the Patriots were themselves 5-5 in 2001 before winning six in a row to top the 11-5 Dolphins in a tiebreaker.
Predictions
According to FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model, the Patriots currently have a 97 percent chance of making the playoffs, and a 42 percent chance of a first-round bye. In comparison, the Steelers possess a 50 percent chance of a bye (again emphasizing the important of the Week 15 matchup).
ESPN’s playoff machine currently predicts no scenarios in which the Patriots clinch a bye, though it has versions where both the Texans and Steelers do.
And earlier this week, former quarterback (and current radio host and CBS analyst) Boomer Esiason predicted that the Patriots would be playing on wild card weekend.
“I know every game they go into, they are the marked team,” Esiason told WEEI’s “Mut & Callahan.” “Everyone wants to measure their success against what the Patriots bring to the field every single week. I know they have the second-easiest schedule from here on in. They should be 12-4, 11-5. They probably will have a home playoff game in the wild card round. They will probably end up playing Tennessee, or somebody like that, or believe it or not, Miami. It could be Cincinnati, it could be Baltimore again. There’s a lot of weird things that still have to happen at the bottom of the playoff food chain in the AFC.”
An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that the 2001 Patriots played on wild card weekend.
