Ranking Tom Brady’s trust tree, Sony Michel’s progress, and Trey Flowers’s importance
We held a round-table discussion with three of our writers — Nora Princiotti, Ben Volin, and Chad Finn — to answer a variety of questions about the state of the Patriots through a third of the season. Editor Rachel G. Bowers moderated.
Bowers: Does receiver Julian Edelman’s return automatically get the vertical game going, especially since tight end Rob Gronkowski has struggled to get open down the seam?
Volin: This game will be a good test of that. As well as Edelman played against the Colts, quarterback Tom Brady still couldn’t push the ball downfield, and still relied on running back James White the most. It’s time for receiver Chris Hogan to show up. He has played 304 snaps this year (91 percent), but has just 11 catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Not a good start to his contract year.
Finn: Seems like Hogan should benefit from being back in a role that suits his skill set. He and receiver Phillip Dorsett had to do too much when Edelman was out and Josh Gordon was a Brown.
Princiotti: I’m not sure the Patriots want to be the deep-shot offense that, say, the Rams with Brandin Cooks have utilized. I’m curious they’ll start designing some plays to get Gordon deeper downfield, but there’s probably a happy medium that has more to do with Edelman stepping up and taking some pressure off Gronk, and Hogan and Dorsett getting more favorable matchups than they did when they had to be the top WR options. It would be good for them to get Hogan going, though I wonder at what point he gets knocked to a lower branch of the trust tree, especially after he caused one of Brady’s interceptions last week.
Volin: Brady doesn’t have to chuck bombs, but they’ve got to open up the passing game. He’s tied for 23rd with 12 passes of 20-plus yards.
Bowers: Rank Brady’s trust tree as it stands now.
Princiotti: 1) White 2) Gronk 3) Edelman.
Volin: 1) White 2) Edelman 3) Gronk 4) Dorsett 5) Gordon 6) Hogan 7) Hollister. And it’s a big gap between Gronk and Dorsett.
Princiotti: I honestly might put Gordon above Dorsett, though it’s totally recency bias. Then 5) Dorsett 6) Hogan 7) Hollister 8) Patterson.
Volin: No, Dorsett is a much higher volume receiver than Gordon right now . . . Gordon had nada the other night until the fourth quarter.
Princiotti: Sure, but some of this is vibes.
Volin: Oh yeah, forgot Patterson . . . he’s eighth. Brady trusts him to run a designed play, but not on any sort of option route or breakdown play
Finn: 462) Donald Hayes 463) Taylor Price 464) Joey Galloway.
Princiotti: Chad I’m lol-ing.
Finn: I do wonder which receiver he’s loathed the most through the years.
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Bowers: What do you make of running back Sony Michel so far? He seems to have progressed each week, but has taken a lot of heat.
Volin: I thought the criticism of him early in the season was over the top. He wasn’t great, but the offensive line was giving him no room to run, either. He runs with surprising power and picks up good yards after contact, though he needs to work on his goal line skills a bit. But his lack of versatility is interesting. He has just three catches this year, as the Patriots use him almost strictly as a runner, and almost always with fullback James Develin leading the way in front of him. Michel has 67 carries on just 96 snaps this year. I think the coaches are trying to keep it basic with him, since he missed most of training camp. My most vivid recollections of him this spring and in his limited training camp is Michel getting constantly lectured by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels or running backs coach Ivan Fears for being out of place or not quite in the right spot.
Princiotti: He’s been fine-to-good, impressive considering his experience level. It was absurd how worked up people got about him specifically after the Lions game in Week 3. It was a horrible situation. The offense couldn’t do anything, the line wasn’t blocking well, and he clearly had little chemistry with them after missing the preseason and Week 1 because he was running impatiently and not waiting for the holes to develop. When you’re totally one-dimensional and that one dimension is a rookie running back with nowhere to go who’s still getting the ball pretty much every snap he’s on the field, of course it looks bad. Yeah, I mean, he can catch, we saw it at Georgia and have heard it from the coaches, but until he’s better in pass protection I don’t think we’ll see him be an every-down guy.
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Finn: The early criticism was ridiculous even by sports radio standards. Saying he sucks was not the dumbest thing Mazz has said, because [he] begged the Red Sox to back out of signing J.D. Martinez, but it’s on the podium. Virtually every great running back in Patriots history — Sam Cunningham. Curtis Martin, Kevin Faulk, Jim Nance — started slowly. Anyone who saw Michel at Georgia knows he can be genuinely electrifying, and it was a matter of knowing what to do and being in good health before he could show that here. He’s much better in traffic than expected, especially over the last two weeks.
Princiotti: Yaaaaaaaaaas Chad.
Finn: Grrr.
Bowers: I saw a stat split recently of the Patriots’ defense when Trey Flowers is on the field and when he’s not on the field, and it was a relatively significant difference, in the run and pass games. How do you view him in terms of importance to the success of the defense?
Princiotti: Ooh, glad you asked this one. I think he’s their best defender. I want to say it might not be close, though I think that’s probably unfair to cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Volin: Very important. He’s their best edge defender and best pass rusher. He missed most of the Jaguars game and all of the Detroit game, and it’s no coincidence those were their two worst defensive performances. The other edge defenders have been really disappointing so far. Keionta Davis and Geneo Grissom have been so bad against the run that they were deactivated the last two weeks. And Adrian Clayborn has done almost nothing this year. I really expected more out of him.
Princiotti: Yeah, me too on Clayborn. And Derek Rivers, who’s been inactive most games!
Finn: Flowers is the closest thing they have to an elite playmaker, though Gilmore, probably because of his rough start last year, remains underappreciated by Patriots fans. He’s steadily excellent.
Volin: Forgot about Rivers. Big disappointment so far. Can’t play the run, so hasn’t been active for four of the five games
Princiotti: Last year, Flowers’s pressure stats were in line with other pass rushers around the league that had double-digit sacks. The Patriots often focus so much on containment that he didn’t finish all those plays off (or he was just unlucky or has a finishing problem, but I think it’s the first thing) but he gets after the QB like an elite playmaker.
Finn: Clayborn has that awful habit of overrunning the quarterback, too. Probably not the approach to take against Mahomes.
Princiotti: Yeah, no thank you. Re: Gilmore, [one day last week] Bill Belichick said he’s been “way better than last year.’’ He backtracked and said he was good last year, too, but I thought that was an interesting moment of honesty.
Volin: You could see it in Belichick’s eyes when he realized what he said, and knew he had to pad the quote a bit.
