Do the Patriots have the talent to win when they must?
Welcome to Season 7, Episode 4 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-yet-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup.
I am not one of those people who think of the Drew Bledsoe years as ye olden days. I’m ancient enough to remember when Steve Grogan could run, when Tony Eason could get a shiver from an invisible pass rush, and when Scott Zolak first became a folk hero among Patriots fans. But I cannot remember the last time it felt like the Patriots’ biggest aspirations hanged in the balance in Week 4. But here we are.
The Patriots have not lost three games in a row during a season since Weeks 4-8 in the 2002 season, when they lost four straight games (Chargers, Dolphins, Packers, Broncos) with a Week 7 bye mixed in. Even then, Week 4 was no concern — they’d begun the season 3-0 and their three-headed safety tandem of Lawyer Milloy, Tebucky Jones, and Victor Green was getting much acclaim. None of it lasted. They finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs. It’s the last time they won fewer than 10 games in a season.
The Patriots come into their Sunday matchup (1 p.m., CBS, Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon on the call) having lost two straight games, neither of which had much suspense — the Jaguars and Lions outscored them in total, 57-30. The defense has looked slow, Tom Brady’s receivers can’t get open, and even their usual discipline has been absent. They trail the Dolphins (3-0) by two games in the division. A loss would put them three back, with a tiebreaker also in Miami’s advantage. The Patriots have won the AFC East the last nine years. If they’re going to make it 10, let alone achieve any of their bigger aspirations, they need this one. Imagine, a must-win in Week 4. Now that feels like something from their old days.
Kick it off, Gostkowski, and let’s get this one started . . .
THREE PLAYERS I’LL BE WATCHING NOT NAMED TOM BRADY
Ryan Tannehill: He’s in his seventh year in the NFL, including the 2017 season missed with a knee injury, and I still haven’t a clue if he’s any good. The Dolphins have had one winning record with him as their starter (8-5 in his 13 starts in ’16), and he still makes decisions that remind you that he’s a converted wide receiver and not a QB lifer. (He’s been sacked six times this year, but holds the ball way too long way too often.) And yet he’s off to a terrific start (he’s completed 73 percent of his throws and trails only Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Drew Brees, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in passer rating) and the Dolphins haven’t lost yet, so maybe he’s taken another step forward. We’ll find out during his quest for a fourth career win against the Patriots, against nine losses. I do know this: I was right when I wrote that Jimmy Garoppolo was the second-best quarterback in the AFC East as Brady’s backup.
Devin McCourty has one interceptions in each of the last three seasons and 20 for his career.
Devin McCourty: In a lot of ways, he’s the standard-bearer for the ideal of what a Patriot is supposed to be, at least in the Krafts’ Patriots Way canon. He’s disciplined and prepared on the field, and a charitable man of the community in his down time. Someday, he’s going to have a red jacket like the one Matt Light was wearing Thursday. But it’s also true that he needs to be better. He has one interception in his last 24 games, and three (playoffs included) over his last 41 games. That’s some Lawyer Milloy-in-2002 stuff. He was complicit in the defensive backfield’s struggles in Super Bowl LI against Nick Foles and the Eagles — it was probably the worst tackling game of his career. If the Patriots are to gain more stability on this defense, McCourty needs to be leading the way. An interception here or there wouldn’t hurt either.
Josh Gordon: I don’t care if he knows 5 percent of the Patriots’ game plan, 50 percent, or he’s spent the week patiently teaching Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels about intricacies of the modern passing game that they’ve never even considered — he needs to play if his hamstring is OK. He’s a threat to the defense unlike anyone else in their receiver corps even if there’s no chance of the ball going his way on a given play. He can help, perhaps a lot, and cynically, you have to play him while you can. He needs to be out there. I can’t take Brady looking around, seeing that no one is open while Cordarrelle Patterson runs in circles like player from that ’70s electric football game come to life, and deciding to chuck it deep in case the ghost of 2007 Randy Moss shows up to catch it. Play Gordon.
GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
Easy one, at least outside of the real world: The Sony Michel-is-a-bust nonsense after two games. He’s struggled for sure (84 yards, 3.5 per carry, 2 catches, more than 2 drops in two games). The first-round pick also missed much of camp with knee issues. The Patriots put him to work — in part due to injuries, in part because they probably see something in him that we haven’t yet — before he was ready. That is clear. He’s hesitant, and the line isn’t helping. Yet the shameless shrieking reactionaries among us talk about him, two games in, like he’s Reggie “Two-Yard’’ Dupard.
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My Twitter timeline was polluted with similar caterwauling, much of it reactionary if not outright ill-informed.
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Reggie Bush played 11 years in the NFL, won a Super Bowl, scored 58 touchdowns, and ran for 5,490 yards. The Patriots’ all-time leading rusher is Sam Cunningham with 5,453 yards.
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Well, let’s see if that is true. The top-five leading rushers in Patriots history are Cunningham, Jim Nance, Tony Collins, Curtis Martin, and Kevin Faulk.
How did they fare at the beginning? Cunningham averaged 3.3 yards per carry as a rookie first-round pick out of Southern Cal. Nance averaged 2.9 yards per carry in 1965. Collins was good right away, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and gaining 874 yards as a rookie in ’81. He also had games that season of 5, 13, 13, and 19 yards. Martin ran for 102 yards and the winning touchdown against Belichick’s Browns in the ’95 opener. His next five games, he proved he wasn’t ready for Canton quite yet, fellas, running for 40, 63, 44, 8, and 31 yards. And I’m sure you know it took Kevin Faulk a few years to become Mr. Reliable.
I don’t know what Michel will be. The knee is a concern. But I know he was electrifying in college . . .
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. . . and his pro career has begun in a similar way to some of the best running backs in Patriots history. At least give him the benefit of patience while he figures it out.
SHOULD THE PATRIOTS HAVE PAID DANNY AMENDOLA?
I’ll admit, when he signed his two-year, $12 million deal with the Dolphins ($8.25 million guaranteed), I thought it was the right move to let him go. He’s 33, has never had more than 700 receiving yards in a season, and while he was habitually extraordinary in big games, the reasoning for letting him go was sound: they’d already gotten the best of him at a lower price. But I made a wrong presumption there, just as I did with the trade of Brandin Cooks to the Rams for a first-round pick. I thought, as they usually do, that the Patriots would find a capable replacement. And they have found nothing. Phillip Dorsett has had some good moment, but he’s not the jayvee version of Cooks, he’s the freshman walk-on version. I assume Jordan Matthews was supposed to be Amendola’s replacement, but he was a flop with the Bills last year and couldn’t stay on the field during camp. Three games into the season, you have to second-guess all of it, and maybe it should have been first-guessed in the first place. Brady is 41 years old. He should be given the most possible talent to work with in the quest for another title. Instead, they’ve given him the least since 2005, and maybe earlier. At least that team found a Jabar Gaffney in the free-agent bin to come in and help out. That’s what this his come to — longing for another Jabar Gaffney.
PREDICTION, OR DO YOU THINK DAN MARINO STILL GIVES EVERYONE ISOTONERS GLOVES FOR THE HOLIDAYS?
Man, this is a tough call. The Dolphins’ wins aren’t of the highest quality (Titans, Jets, Raiders), and all were close (the largest margin of victory is 8 points). But they do have a fast and occasionally explosive offense, and the Patriots’ defense so far has been slow and reactive. The Patriots have a long history of bouncing back after two straight losses — and heck, they’ve only lost two in row 12 times in the Brady/Belichick era. They typically come out with a vengeance in these scenarios. It’s just that right now, I’m not sure they have the talent to exact it. This one is on Brady and Rob Gronkowski, perhaps with some aid from Gordon and, yes, Michel. For now, I’m going to consider history and give them the benefit of the doubt. If they lose, that’s when the faith in their ability to win when they must goes too. Patriots 24, Dolphins 21.
