New England Patriots

What NFL experts and media are saying about the Patriots’ slow start

"And this time, for the first time, I have my doubts that things will get better."

Tom Brady Patriots-Jaguars
Tom Brady walks off the field after the Patriots' 31-20 loss to the Jaguars. Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

By Hayden Bird

7 minutes to read

Following Sunday night’s loss to the Lions, the 1-2 Patriots quickly became the subject of discussion around the NFL. The conversation has only intensified in the ensuing days, with the word “panic” being predictably thrown around.

Former Patriots receiver Troy Brown said the team was “capsizing” in wake of Rob Gronkowski’s comments confirming an off season trade report. Other comments have been tempered by experience, as Trent Dilfer humorously reminded fans.

Across the wider scope of NFL media, opinions vary.

Tedy Bruschi, former Patriots linebacker

Eric Edholm, Pro Football Weekly

Examining the loss to the Lions, it was a failure across the board for the Patriots, according to NFL writer Eric Edholm. He remains skeptical about their chances of a turnaround:

Doubting Bill Belichick has been the worst loser’s bet for almost two decades. Brady was in MVP form at the end of last season and should be getting real help soon. The Patriots, lest we forget, actually played some darned-respectable defense the middle of last season — an eight-game span in which they did not allow more than 17 points.

But are we going to be waiting in vain this time?

The wise 8-ball rarely lets us down, so “Ask again later” it is. But it wouldn’t shock us if it comes up “Outlook not so good” at some point if things don’t change fast for this team.

Ryan Hannable, WEEI

Tom Brady has mentioned the double-coverage Rob Gronkowski has received in critical situations so far in 2018. Still, the Patriots tight end hasn’t been doubled as much as might be thought:

Over the last two games, Gronkowski has run 50 routes and has only been double-covered 26 percent (13-of-50) of the time — six against the Jaguars in Week 2 and seven against the Lions in Week 3. Most of these instances have occurred in the red zone.

Both defenses certainly have paid attention to him more than any other Patriots pass-catcher, but the double teams just haven’t been as prevalent as the narrative has said.

James Harrison, former Patriots linebacker

Doug Kyed, NESN

On the NESN Patriots Podcast with his colleague, Zack Cox, Kyed described the current challenges facing the team:

It’s still possible that these are just early season issues for the Patriots, like they faced in 2014 [and] 2017. If anything, I’d say that’s the most likely scenario in this case, but I think that’s it’s okay to start getting concerned at this point. In Week 2, there were a lot of things that went against the Patriots’ way. It was 97 degrees in Jacksonville, the Jaguars were supposed to be a very good team.

This week it was just much different because as you said, the Lions had really tough games in the first two weeks of the season, and I would say that the Patriots were still without Trey Flowers, which I think is playing a huge role in their early season losses.

But at the same time, I think the loss of Trey Flowers, the loss of Patrick Chung, Eric Rowe being out of the game, it’s showing off the issues that the Patriots have with their depth. Really across the board right now, and I think that that might be the biggest issue the Patriots are facing right now.

Mike Lombardi, former NFL general manager

Having worked under Belichick with both the Browns and Patriots in various front office roles, Mike Lombardi has frequently offered specific and detailed opinions in the past. On the team’s current predicament, Lombardi believes the next two games will be a telling indicator.

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“Look, it’s not all doom and gloom,” Lombardi said on a Ringer podcast, GM Street. “It’s not the end of the Roman Empire in New England yet, but I do think this Miami game and the [Indianapolis] game will be a telltale sign on where they’re going with their season.”

He also wrote a piece for The Athletic, again comparing the Patriots’ dynasty to the Roman Empire:

Let’s face it, there has to be an end. Even the Roman Empire came crashing down. And yet, every year, as soon as fall turns into winter, the only question that remains is whether anyone can beat the Patriots for the Super Bowl title. But Sunday night, after getting humiliated and beaten down by the winless Lions, 26-10, many around the NFL are, yet again, suggesting that the end is now near.

And this time, for the first time, I have my doubts that things will get better.

Henry McKenna, Patriots Wire

Bill Belichick’s inability to get the best out of his players during back-to-back losses has drawn attention:

If he knew them better, he might not have lost two consecutive games in decisive fashion. He might have had better game plans prepared that put the players in positions to succeed. Over the first three weeks, Belichick has been gathering information about what he has and doesn’t have on this 53-man roster. In the process, the Patriots have been outmatched.

And as McKenna pointed out, time is against the Patriots:

Belichick spends most of his time figuring how to get his players in the best position to succeed, but he doesn’t seem to know his players well enough to do that through three games in the regular season.

The problem is that he may learn too little or too late.

Rob Ninkovich, former Patriots linebacker

The two-time Super Bowl champion criticized the defense:

They really haven’t started fast at in any of the games this season,’ said Ninkovich. It’s just hard to pinpoint exactly what the issue is at the moment, but No. 1 starting to concern me from Week 1 to just this recent game was just this run defense. Going into the game, both sides of the ball had a hard time stopping the run, and the Patriots had a harder time.

Michael Salfino, FiveThirtyEight

The statistics-oriented coverage from FiveThirtyEight focused on the dismal back-to-back weeks from the Patriots, and where the two games fit historically.

Eventually, Brady’s NFL career and the Patriots’ dynasty actually will come to an end. Though we can’t know for sure when that will happen, we should pay attention when they struggle — even if we can’t write them off quite yet. What’s happened in the past two weeks is unusual for the Pats and warrants more than just a shrug as New England prepares to host the unbeaten Dolphins, the first of three straight games in Foxborough.

Stephen A. Smith and Damien Woody, ESPN

SB Nation’s NFL Panic Index

A panel of SB Nation NFL writers offered some thoughts on the struggles of their Super Bowl picks, a group which includes the Patriots:

The Saints and Jaguars are in great shape at 2-1. The Steelers and Vikings are just two of 17 teams in the Super Bowl era to start 1-1-1 and guess what? Three of those teams went to the Super Bowl. The 1974 Steelers even won the whole thing.

The news is slightly worse for the Falcons and Patriots. Only four teams have ever started 1-2 and gone on to win the Super Bowl: 2007 Giants, 2001 Patriots, 1993 Cowboys, and 1981 49ers. But it can be done.

And we still know better than to ever count out the Patriots until there’s a body. Just ask the Falcons.

Shannon Sharpe, Rob Parker, Skip Bayless and Jenny Taft, FS1

Mike Reiss, ESPN

The Patriots beat writer has offered several angles on the team’s early season struggles.

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From a piece about the lack of run defense:

On Sunday night against the Patriots, the Detroit Lions snapped a 70-game streak of not having a 100-yard rusher, and it doesn’t take a Ph.D. in football to diagnose where the struggles are originating for New England: at the line of scrimmage.

And on if it’s time to panic:

The Patriots have problems that remind me of what Bill Belichick said in the 2009 documentary about him: They are too easy to defend on offense because all opponents have to do is devote extra resources to Gronkowski and there aren’t enough other weapons to make them pay. Edelman’s return should help, and if Gordon can give them anything, that might help, too.

Defensively, they look slow and can’t stop the run, which were some similar issues that were talked about at this time last year and they still made it to the Super Bowl. There’s no guarantee that it will be another successful season, but Bill Belichick and Brady deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point.

Ben Volin, Boston Globe

One of the Globe’s beat writers shared his thoughts on if the Patriots can still get to the playoffs and clinch a first round bye:

Marcellus Wiley, FS1

In a discussion of the Patriots with Jason Whitlock on FS1’s “Speak For Yourself,” Wiley – a former defensive end – said that historically this isn’t unusual for the Patriots to start slowly:

You’ve said it so many times – and yeah you said it last week because everyone wants to be first, not right – the Patriots demise! The Patriots, it’s over, yet again. I shall kill that argument, with numbers. As we’ve seen, the Patriots have been in this position not one, not two, not five, not six, but seven times the New England Patriots have started off a season 2-2 or worse. Each of those previous times we’ve seen them win the division, who knows what will happen this year. And each of those six times, we’ve seen three of them [they] were Super Bowl championship runs.

Cameron Wolfe, ESPN

The ESPN Dolphins writer weighed in ahead of the Patriots’ AFC East clash:

Every time we try to dig the Patriots’ grave, they find a way to come back. This seems like a speed bump to me right now. The biggest issue seems to be a lack of weapons who can win one-on-one coverage outside of Gronkowski. That could be solved with a healthy Gordon and the Week 5 return of Edelman.

The sloppiness and lack of energy is a little concerning given the controversy that swirls around the team’s key figures, but they still have the core pieces to help lead them out of that funk. Maybe this isn’t one of the better Patriots teams, which is why we are wondering if the Dolphins can unseat them as AFC East champions, but they should still be considered favorites to make the playoffs and be championship contenders because of Brady.