The Patriots are on to Tampa. Will they bring their A game?
Welcome to Season 6, Episode 5 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, often nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup that runs right here every weekend (and the occasional Thursday).
I suspect there are very few Patriots fans who don’t know what happened the last time the Patriots got off to a 2-2 start. Heck, you’re probably finding some solace and hope in it right now.
The year was 2014, of course. A humiliating 42-14 loss at Kansas City in Week 4 dropped the Patriots to .500 a quarter of the way into the season. Bill Belichick snorted, grumbled, told us, then told us again that his team was on to Cincinnati, the location of their next opponent.
Turned out they were on to much more than that. The ’14 Patriots walloped Cincinnati, winning seven straight games after that rout in Kansas City, the streak snapped with a 26-21 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field in Week 9. They’d lose once more during the regular season, in what amounted to a scrimmage in Week 17 against the Bills.
They would not lose after that. That was the February when the elusive fourth championship would be secured in the most satisfying of ways … at least until the fifth championship was won perhaps even more improbably.
Four weeks into this season, the Patriots find themselves in a similar condition. They’re 2-2, and 1-2 at home. The Buffalo Bills lead the AFC East. They’ve lost to the Chiefs, in the season opener, and they lost Sunday on the Gillette turf to the Carolina Panthers when Stephon Gilmore, their $65 million defensive back and ex-Bill, forgot … well, everything a professional defensive back should know, including that he’s supposed to cover an opposing receiver from time to time.
Now, with just three full days since that aggravating loss, they’re on to Tampa Bay, where they’ll face Jameis Winston and the upstart Buccaneers. A win would boost the Bucs to 3-1 and a tie with the Panthers and Falcons atop the NFC South. They have a chance to be a playoff team this year. This one is important to them, and the mystery is whether they’re catching the Patriots at a good or bad time. We know how the 2014 Patriots would have handled this. We’re going to find out if the 2017 Patriots have similar gumption.
Kick it off, Gostkowski, and let’s get this thing started …
Three players I’ll be watching not named Tom Brady
Doug Martin:
The running back makes his season debut after serving the final three games of a four-game suspension for performance-enhancing substances. Martin was brutal a season ago, rushing for just 421 yards at 2.9 per carry in eight games. That was a falloff of nearly 1,000 yards from his excellent 2015 season, when he ran for 1,402 yards at 4.9 yards per attempt on exactly twice as many carries (288 to 144) than he had in ’16. Martin looked like his old self in camp and by various accounts straightened out his life following last season. The Bucs, 26th in the league with an average of 86 rushing yards per game, need the old Doug Martin, not the Doug Martin who looked old last year.
Mike Evans: Feel free to put Desean Jackson here if you prefer. The Bucs have a couple of electrifying receivers, which is nerve-racking considering the Patriots couldn’t figure out how to stay close to the far less dangerous likes of Devin Funchess, Kelvin Benjamin, and tight end Ed Dickson Sunday. Evans has 19 catches for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns in three games, putting him on pace to surpass 1,000 yards for the fourth time in his four-year career. And Jackson is essentially the Stanley Morgan of his time, averaging over 17 yards per reception on the 500-plus catches he has made in his career. Better not lose track of these guys, fellas, or you’ll never catch up.
Dion Lewis: Yeah, I keep harping on this one, and will until he becomes a bigger part of the offense, especially in the running game. We saw signs of an expanded role against the Panthers, when he had four carries for a season-high 18 yards and a touchdown. He also had a catch for 9 yards and was often on the field and involved during the Patriots’ comeback from a 30-16 deficit with under 9 minutes remaining. But that sample is still too small. Lewis is one of the Patriots’ more dynamic offensive players. Here’s hoping the Patriots are limiting his time because of his injury history and his role will grow as the season goes on. Little else makes sense.
Grievance of the week
So many grievances of this week. So many. Cam Newton, who is either a misogynistic moron or plays one well at press conferences, gets the league-wide award. But keeping to a Patriots-related topic, the lingering, obvious choice is Stephon Gilmore’s hapless performance against the Panthers.
What’s going on with this guy? He’s a talented, fairly accomplished player, albeit one with an occasional knack for finger-pointing while with the Bills. (He seems to have been accountable for his disastrous first quarter-season here.) You know Belichick and Nick Caserio did their due diligence before giving him $35 million guaranteed, because they do their due diligence on everything.
So what did they miss? Why is this happening? How can a defensive back have no clue who he is supposed to be covering on multiple plays per game? It’s bewildering, and you have to figure it will get better. Yes, I know it’s not all his fault. But Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Patrick Chung, and Malcolm Butler have a track record of competence and comprehension. They have long proven that they know what they’re doing – and that they can do it. Logan Ryan is out, Gilmore is in, and it all goes haywire. Either Ryan was a combination of Lester Hayes and Mike Haynes and we didn’t notice it, or Gilmore is the personification of Bill Parcells’s old ball-in-high-grass line. He’s lost, and his teammates have gotten lost trying to cover for him.
I also must gripe alarmingly about the dangerous game the Patriots’ line is playing with Tom Brady’s health. He’s 40 years old, his tackles have turned into turnstiles, he’s been sacked nearly as much through four games (13 times) as he was all of last season (15 times) … and yet he’s on pace to complete 412 of 620 passes for 5,596 yards, 40 touchdowns, and no interceptions. That’s a ridiculous year on the easiest level of Madden. It’s unfathomable for mortals. He is bailing out a lot of teammates right now. Time for them to start taking some of the weight off of him.
Prediction, or the Bucs really should bring back their Bucco Bruce logo
If not for the abysmal defensive performance against the Panthers still fresh in the memory, this one would profile as a relatively easy win for the Patriots. Winston has a three-interception game (vs. the Vikings) already on his record this season. He’s less mobile than the last two quarterbacks the Patriots have faced, Deshaun Watson and Newton, which should work to the advantage of the Patriots’ young pass rushers, Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise. And this isn’t exactly the Bucs defense of Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks – they have just one sack this season, which makes you feel at least slightly better about the chances of Marcus Cannon and Nate Solder allowing Brady to remain upright the entire game.
Yes, the Bucs have talented receivers, and it would be swell if Stephon Gilmore knew which one he was covering on the majority of the plays. But ultimately, this Bucs team looks like one that will allow the Patriots to find their mojo. Then it’s on to … well, a few extra days to make sure their issues have been solved.
Patriots 34, Bucs 20.
