Chiefs-Patriots prediction roundup
Plenty has been made over the last seven months — ever since Tom Brady won his fifth Super Bowl title by charging an historic comeback over the (haha) Atlanta Falcons — about the New England Patriots quarterback’s G.O.A.T credentials. But perhaps there hasn’t been enough said about one, telling statistic of utter dominance.
Since 2007, Brady is an all-but-pristine 51-1 against AFC opponents at Gillette Stadium. It’s a remarkable achievement made all the more ridiculous by noting that the lone loss came during a meaningless Week 17 defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. Brady didn’t even play the second half.
Unlike in 2016, when he sat out the first four games of the schedule for his Delfategate suspension, Brady will be at the helm when the Patriots kick off the 2017 season at Gillette Thursday night against the Kansas City Chiefs. The NFL commissioner will supposedly be there too. Had you heard?
The Chiefs might be pretty good. They might win the AFC West.
But their odds of sinking Brady to 51-2 over the aforementioned period?
Nope.
This week’s picks
Terez A. Paylor, Kansas City Star:Patriots 27, Chiefs 16.
“The Chiefs have to contend with a lot Thursday. Not only are the Patriots 3-0 on Thursdays when opening a season, New England will also be raising its fifth Super Bowl banner in front of a frenzied crowd and a nationwide audience. Add in the fact Brady is 52-1 at home since 2007 against AFC opponents and it’s difficult to give the Chiefs the edge here. But don’t completely count these guys out. No one is giving a team that went 12-4 last year a chance to win the game. That’s fertile grounds for the “no one believed in us” win.”
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 27, Chiefs 23. “Patriots have won eight straight home openers and 12 of past 13 overall on Kickoff Weekend. Tom Brady, 40, will continue to defy Papi Time until there are contrary indications, and he’s doubly difficult to defeat at home, where he is 101-17 all-time. But Chieftains played NE tough in last meeting, in 2105 playoffs, losing 27-20, and this too should be closer than the fat betting line, which disrespects how good KC is more than it flatters the defending champion Pats. Chiefs led all NFL defenses with 33 takeaways last year and have the playmakers to make Brady feel suddenly old. An outright upset here would not shock, but we’ll hedge and make KC-plus-points the play. By the way, you will hear booing by Pats fans Thursday night. Why? NFL commish Roger Goodell, a villain, in Foxborough, will attend the game.”
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 27, Chiefs 13. “The Patriots should have an explosive offense again, even without Julian Edelman. The Chiefs have a good defense, but they won’t be able to slow down Tom Brady and they sure can’t keep up. Patriots big.”
CBS Sports staff: Seven out of eight pick the Patriots (New England -9). They all pick New England straight-up.
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots. “Frankly, the hype surrounding New England is bound to manifest itself a few times in the form of some silly lines this season. And really, a nine-point spread here in Week 1 is borderline. But I’ll tell you what: Something magical happens at these banner-raising games. There’s just something about a team shooting off the pyrotechnics as fans clenching overpriced beer hoot and holler at a large draped canvas that makes it impossible for visitors to compete.”
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots. “Since the Pats’ AFC East division championship streak began in 2009, they have been 57-7 at home during the regular season, and 9-3 during the playoffs at Gillette, where visiting team headsets go out at inopportune times. The Patriots cheat, is what I’ve driving at.”
Fansided staff: Twelve out of 13 pick the Pats.
David Steele, Sporting News: Patriots 30, Chiefs 19. “This was on course to be the AFC championship game last year until the Chiefs slowed to a crawl against the Steelers at home the week before. Alex Smith is now looking over his shoulder at rookie Pat Mahomes, and it’s not wrong to wonder if Andy Reid will be watching closely how things progress — albeit against a defense that ranked No. 1 last season and likely got stronger. Oh, almost forgot: Tom Brady, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and enough new wideouts to overcome losing Julian Edelman.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 30, Chiefs 17. “The Patriots go from digging out of a major Super Bowl hole into massive Super Bowl favorites. The Chiefs aren’t the easiest opening opponent. But while their defense can cause a few snags for Tom Brady and the passing game, their own lack of offensive firepower will cost them. New England will find a way to contain Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. KC won’t have the same answers for Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski.”
Kevin Duffy, MassLive: Patriots 31, Chiefs 14. “Opening night at Gillette, under the lights, right after the unveiling of a fifth Super Bowl banner, with 50,000 fans waving Goodell towels…how can the Patriots lose this game? OK, I know that’s not the most logical analysis. But the atmosphere undoubtedly plays a role in the outcome. And in between the lines, I think this is a tough matchup for Kansas City. The Chiefs are a smart team. They generally force turnovers and take care of the ball. But they don’t have a great offense. They rely on chunk plays. Alex Smith will take a shot every once in a while, or they’ll count on Tyreek Hill to bust an 80-yard touchdown on a reverse. Kansas City will have trouble sustaining offense in this game. New England will not.”
SB Nation staff: Seven out of eight pick the defending champs.
Neil Greenberg, Washington Post: Winner: New England Patriots, 71 percent. Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +9. “Since Brady become the Patriots starting quarterback in 2001, New England is 8-0 at home during Week 1 of the season. That doesn’t mean the Chiefs can’t keep it close.”
Five Thirty Eight: New England with a 69 percent chance of victory over the Chiefs.
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 27, Chiefs 17. “Chiefs coach Andy Reid thrives with the extra time that a bye provides. He’s had the most possible time to get ready for this one. And the Patriots don’t know how Reid will deploy Tyreek Hill. And it’s easier to get past the New England offensive line in September. And the receiver who shares a brain with Tom Brady is done for the year. And ultimately none of it matters because the Patriots are still the Patriots and Tom Brady is still Tom Brady and they’re hanging Banner No. 5.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 28, Chiefs 17. “The Patriots are the best team in football. They were last year, and they’re the favorites to be the best this year as well. I have a hunch the Chiefs might just be better than the Patriots by the end of the season, but not in Week One.”
ESPN.com staff: All Pats.
The Boston Globe: Four out of five take the Patriots.
It says here: Patriots 30, Chiefs 23. There may be some growing pains for the Patriots’ defense. What else is new? But Brady will handle the offense with ease against the Kansas City defense, as he steps into life without Edelman. Unlike the last time, two seasons ago, logic suggests that the presences of Cooks, Hogan, and Mitchell will provide him with enough options that it will be business as usual for the Patriots.
