How the Falcons’ offense stacks up against the ‘Greatest Show On Turf’
Is this the most dynamic offense the Patriots have faced in a Super Bowl?
COMMENTARYThe Patriots have one of the richest Super Bowl histories of any team in National Football League history. Obviously, this week, we’re focused on just Super Bowl LI, and rightfully so. In the lead up to the big game though, it can be instructive to see just how this Atlanta Falcons offense compares to teams the Patriots have faced in their eight previous Super Bowl trips. Is this the best offense they have ever faced?If you scroll through your mental rolodex of New England’s Super Bowl opponents, you probably quickly land on the 2001 St. Louis Rams. The “Greatest Show on Turf” came in with a reputation second to none ahead of that season’s Super Bowl. Of course, part of the reason for that was that they already had a Super Bowl trophy in their case, and quarterback Kurt Warner and running back Marshall Faulk had taken home the NFL MVP trophy in 1999 and 2000, respectively. They had a track record, in other words, though they weren’t quite as good in 2001 as they had been in 2000. While quarterback Matt Ryan is well respected, and may be named this year’s MVP, the Falcons don’t quite carry the same gravitas into the game. Of course, gravitas matters little in the realm of statistics. Let’s take a look at how the teams stack up statistically. But first, just for fun, let’s quickly take a look at all nine of the Patriots’ Super Bowl opponent offenses.
Sources: Pro-Football-Reference and Football Outsiders
As you can see, the 2001 Rams and 2016 Falcons stand head and shoulders above the competition. Whether you use traditional statistics like points scored, yards gained and yards per play, or advanced metrics like OSRS and DVOA, the Rams and Falcons stack up ahead of the other teams. That is especially true when you look at the ranks for each metric, as the Rams and Falcons were first or second in all of these categories within their given seasons.
If you break things down to passing and rushing offense, you will see that the 1985 Bears and 2014 Seahawks gained far more yards on the ground, and the 2004 Eagles and 2007 Giants also had rushing offenses that were comparable to the 2001 Rams and 2016 Falcons. You’d also see that the 2011 Giants had a comparable passing offense, and that the 1996 Packers were close in both categories. That Green Bay team would be the closest to the Rams and Falcons, but on the whole, not even that Packers squad measures up.
The Rams and Falcons stand alone.
So, let’s take a closer look at the Rams and the Falcons. By OSRS, which measures an offense’s quality relative to average, they’re identical teams. By offensive DVOA however, the Falcons come out on top, and by a bit of a margin. The Falcons scored 37 more points, which isn’t that much — a little more than two additional points per game — and their yardage totals were virtually identical.
While the two offenses cumulatively come out looking similar, there are some differences. The Falcons have a better passing attack, while the Rams had the better ground game. The differences are slight in terms of yardage, but they are more pronounced in terms of DVOA. Let’s take a look.
Sources: Pro-Football-Reference and Football Outsiders
As you can see, the difference in DVOA percentage between the team’s rushing and passing offense is roughly equal. The Falcons sport a 17.3% edge passing-wise, while the Rams’ rushing attack was 16.4% better. DVOA goes back to 1989. In that time, the Rams’ rushing attack ranks 51st overall. That might not seem that great to you, and admittedly, 51st doesn’t sound that terrific. But considering the sample size is 861 teams, it’s still fairly noteworthy.
The Falcons’ passing attack is even more noteworthy. Since 1989, it ranks as the 13th-best passing offense.
As you’ll see, the Falcons aren’t really all that close to being the best of all time (which you’ll also note is the 2007 Patriots). But they are very close to being top 10 — it’s almost splitting hairs to keep them out of the top 10. You’ll also see that of the top 16 here, 10 have come in the past decade, when the rules have been changed to allow for more freedom for pass catchers.
That doesn’t take anything away from the Falcons, obviously. Atlanta’s main receiving trio of Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel would be effective in any season. It’s also not every day that you have a pair of running backs rack up at least 400 receiving yards, as Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman did this season (for reference, the only time the Patriots have done this was in 1994, when Leroy Thompson and Kevin Turner pulled it off, and you could argue Turner shouldn’t count, since he was a fullback).
Another interesting thing about the Falcons’ passing attack this season compared to the 2001 Rams is how much they’ve spread it around. Atlanta had 10 players pile up at least 200 receiving yards, while the Rams had just six.
The Falcons’ chart looks like it will be a lot harder to defend. On the other hand, you could argue that with the Rams being excellent at both passing and rushing, and the Falcons really only standing out through the air that Atlanta is more one dimensional, and thus easier to defend. It all depends on the game plan, of course.
So, how do these two offenses stack up all-time? By OSRS, Atlanta’s 2016 unit is the 14th-best since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. St. Louis’ 2000 team is tied for 15th.
The 2016 Falcons may be among the best offenses of all time. But they’re nothing the Belichick-era Patriots hasn’t faced before. Obviously, they bested the 2001 Rams. You’ll remember the 2004 Colts for coming into Foxborough in the divisional round of that year’s playoffs and coming away with just a field goal. On the other hand, the 2009 Saints had their way with the Pats, topping them 38-17. The only other team from the chart the Belichick-era Pats played was the 2013 Broncos, whom they beat in the regular season (34-31) but lost to in the AFC Championship (26-16). Win or lose, that Broncos team was able to put up points on New England’s D. None of those are apples to apples comparisons — this year’s New England defense is its own unit — but these games drive home the point that the team has faced competition akin to the 2016 Falcons before.
The 2016 Falcons have a high-flying offense that is not to be underestimated. They are one of the best offenses of all time, and are at least the equal of one of New England’s previous Super Bowl foes, the 2001 St. Louis Rams. They might be better. If you want to call them the best offense the Patriots have ever faced in the Super Bowl, you’d have every right to do so. With Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and a talented and deep roster of skill players, Atlanta will present the Patriots’ defense with a stern challenge come Sunday.
